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Murder at the Cottage | Sky

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  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    Did Jules not claim Baily said he cut his head on a stick?



  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch


    It's not only forensic evidence that's lacking flopsit. There is no evidence whatsoever linking him to the victim. Nothing to link him to the crime scene. No motive.

    Frankly, whilst I accept that he may have done it, having followed this thread, watched to documentaries, read the books etc, I cannot see anything that makes me suspect him. Nothing in the circumstantial stuff either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭flopisit


    Bailey had no motive.

    Again, as I say, clueless people thinking they know something.

    1. There is a very common belief that the prosecution needs to provide a motive. They don't. It helps the case, but a motive is never necessary.
    2. Just because you personally can't envision a motive does not mean there is no motive.
    3. Perhaps you've read too many of your Agatha Christie books, because in real life, motives are very mundane.
    4. Example: A rapist attacks a woman. She resists. He kills her and flees. You show up at the crime scene. What is the motive? Rape? But there was no rape. So you are flummoxed because you can't figure out what the motive was.
    5. A man beating a woman he doesn't know to death is a common crime. You simply haven't seen many examples of this type of crime because they get reported once and the papers don't bother with them after that.
    6. There is a case of a prostitute (Belinda Pereira) who was beaten to death with a blunt instrument in Dublin less than a week after Sophie's murder. (Nobody remembers her. Her case was never solved). She was not raped or molested. What was the motive in her case? If we found her killer, would we say "Oh he didn't have a motive".
    7. Serial killer Ted Bundy has a list of victims as long as your arm. Their skeletons were found in the mountains. What did he do to them? We don't know. So he doesn't have a motive, right?

    Man wants sex with woman - woman rebuffs him - man murders her. The motive is as old as time. It happens again and again, year in year out. Sadly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    That's a world away from your previous statement.

    I don't think 'likely scenario' is especially important here, or your phrasing of long time resident with detailed knowledge. So I reject the premise of your question.

    It may very well be such an individual, but the crime hasn't been solved after decades, perhaps this is one with an unlikely scenario.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭flopisit



    We have two witnesses linking him to the victim. He knew who she was, he knew where she lived and he frequented the area multiple times. We also have multiple other witnesses saying he told them he knew her. (You may not like any of these witnesses but they exist and their statements are evidence against Bailey)

    See my previous comment for discussion of motive.

    The current circumstantial evidence makes him a good suspect, but not enough to prove anything.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭flopisit


    She said during her 10th feb arrest that he at first claimed he cut himself with a stick. It was a long long time after that when she recanted those statements. In 2014, she was calling the statement rubbish and claiming a vast police conspiracy to change the wording of her statement, (which she had signed at the time)

    Unfortunately, the documentaries and the DPP's report don't highlight this, so people forget it happened.



  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch


    No, there is no evidence of an associatioen between IB and Sophie.

    Alfie said he may have introduced them. Even if he did, an introduction does not constitute an association. And he wasn't certain anyway. There is no evidence that they ever had a conversation, nobody claims to have seen them together, he was never seen at her house nor her at his, etc etc. That's a dead duck.

    Generally, in murder cases there will be a motive. It may not be obvious or even apparent but there will almost always be a motive.

    With serial killers, like Ted Bundy or Peter Sutcliffe, the motive was the crime itself.

    If you are suggesting that Bailey killed her for no reason, I think that makes it even more unlikely that he was the killer. (i.e. he got out of bed in the early hours, went to her house and killed her on a whim)

    The circumstantial evidence, in the absence of a real link, is not evidence at all.

    And I would like to again point out - there is more evidence pointing in Alfies direction than Bailey's.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭dublin49


    pretty damning if accurate given all the other suspicious Bailey behaviour around that time .



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Clueless? You mean like the people trying to make a case against Bailey out of nothing?

    Because that's what you have and you are. Nothing. Just this ramble about 'motive' in the general which are obvious smokescreens as to the lack of things like, you know, a motive. Real evidence. Forensics. Witnesses.

    I listed several aspects of the lack of a case against Bailey. Motive was one of them.

    You then jump on that in classic strawman fashion. But hold on, nowhere did I say motive was essential.

    I didn't. I listed several aspects demonstrating the lack of real evidence against Bailey. So you're not fooling anyone with jumping on one sentence and turning it into a strawman argument.

    But motive is one of the key planks of a criminal investigation to lead the authorities to suspect someone.

    Bailey has no known motive that would lead one to suspect any pre-meditated reason for him to want to murder SOphie. In contrast to Daniel, or for example, neighbours who may have been in dispute with Sophie over boundary and drugs issues.

    So in shorthand, Bailey had no motive.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 931 ✭✭✭flanna01



    Quite interesting comments from both sides of the fence too be fair..

    I think everyone will agree, there is no physical evidence linking Bailey to the murder / crime scene.

    At least that's one thing we all agree on.

    The circumstantial evidence... Now that's another bag of kittens..?

    1) Scratches & Cuts

    2) Being seen down by the bridge

    3) Admitting to it (several times)

    4) No alibi for the night of the murder

    5) The bonfire out the back / Burning kill kit maybe?

    6) Contradicting statements to the Guards

    7) Apparent knowledge of crime location before generally known

    8) Able to determine she wasn't sexually assaulted before known


    Can anybody else add to the circumstantial list? What am I missing? Is this everything that made Bailey suspect No.1?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem




  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    If you ignore all that and everything else you might wonder why dear Ian is a suspect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭flopisit


    Thank you for getting the conversation back on track (and apologies to all losing my temper)

    Yes, I would agree, that is the evidence the gards were citing prior to the arrests. I can't think of anything more.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,456 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Nonsense. It's very easy to locate. I've never been there but I located it in a few minutes from bits and pieces in a few posts in this thread when I first started reading it, with clear directions I could have located it in seconds.

    It is not hidden in a maze. Even someone who had never been in the area could easily find it from very simple directions. Four short sentences a child could follow would get you from Schull to the house.

    If you start with fundamentally flawed assumptions that the house is difficult to find and on the balance of probability the murder was a long time resident then everything that follows is also fundamentally flawed.

    It is self evident the house isn't difficult to locate. Without supporting evidence, any assumptions regarding the murderer are unhelpful, possibly misleading, nonsense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    When you said "Bailey didn't cut himself on a 'stick'." are you discounting Jule's alleged statement or were you not aware of it?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I would like to see a source for this statement.

    Bailey didnt cut himself on a 'stick' as least my understanding of the word. It sounds like a misunderstanding of tree / branch although maybe thats what it was referred to.

    If Jules said that she could have misremembered. Or it was misremembered for her!

    Or by stick here she meant Ian was scratched when cutting the tree and assumed this particular one was of same origin. No lies needed.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    You'd not think either Jules or Ian were lying? Given the fact this head cut was put down to the turkeys.....

    Why would you not consider one or both of them were lying? Do you know them? Wife beaters don't lie?

    Misremembering is fine for Jules but Alfie being 90% sure of something isn't fine?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 DavidBradley


    Ah Bailey didn't gash himself with a stick alright, but he did initially say that to Jules.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Thats a lot of vague questions with nothing to support them.

    Under pressure of questioning weeks after an event people can misremember specific details. I have given a plausible explanation for the confusion in a specific detail.

    This is very different to Alfie and his 90 percent memory. This was not a detail. It was the actual event. People may remember events in the wrong order or forget but if sober to doubt a memory... hmm.

    And if you read his followup he was not 90 percent certain. In his memory he was 100 percent certain but he doubted his own memory. Now what would make you so uncertain of a memory you recall?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    I shall simplify for you... "You'd not think either Jules or Ian were lying?"


    Yes or No



  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭dublin49


    I am being told you are wrong .very difficult to find by all accounts,especially at night



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Why is lying necessary as an explanation for discrepancies?

    I reject the premise.

    Maybe they misremembered. Maybe they lied. Maybe they straightened out a story and smoothed over some details to simplify it without changing its essence.

    You are the one claiming lies which is a big claim. Its up to you to make the case that lies are the reason not throw out vague accusations without substantiation.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    I was certain 007s Butler was killed in Skyfall.... Watching it for the 2nd time years later I was amazed to see he wasn't.

    Jules misremembering (your explanation) what Ian said to her that morning I'd not consider plausible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Summitatem


    "Maybe they lied" fair play... You've come along way in 30 minutes.


    It's not up to me to prove any of my opinions BTW.

    Did I ask you to prove your earlier claim?

    "Bailey didn't cut himself on a 'stick'"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,682 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    "Nonsense. It's very easy to locate. I've never been there but I located it in a few minutes from bits and pieces in a few posts in this thread when I first started reading it, with clear directions I could have located it in seconds."


    Did you use Sat.Nav on your bike Fish ,

    or Google maps from your armchair?

    If as you say you've been reading it from the start you will know that before the Murder Tourist Ghouls turned up in Dreenane you could put "Sophie Toscan Du Plantier house" in Google maps search and you would find it at the click of a mouse.

    It's a bit different navigating around there in the dark with only your "four short sentences" in 1996



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,268 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Nonsense. Its your claim about a 'stick'.

    And where did I say they didnt lie?

    If you cant support your claim dont expect anyone to take your opinions seriously if you have to resort to this nonsense when simply asked to support them. And if you cant support them expect them to be challenged.

    And in 30 minutes you have not provided any support for your stick claim.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 931 ✭✭✭flanna01


    You seem fixated with either Bailey or Jules lying.. That's all you've been drumming on about for the last few pages.

    Wait until you see Maria Farrell's statements and contradictions....

    You'll get some serious mileage out of her..... 🤣😂😆



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,889 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Just finished this last night.

    Whether Bailey did it or not I hope he is under the care of a psychiatrist because he is clearly unhinged.

    The most compelling evidence against him for me is all the newspaper articles he wrote with indepth details about the case yet these details had not been released by Garda.

    He is also capable of committing severe violence against a women as he beat up his partner Jules a number of times.

    He also admitted to numerous people he did it. He says it was all in jest, but who lies about things like that?

    I don't agree with those saying murders don't hog the limelight, look at Joe O Reilly and Ian Huntley.

    There is a lack of DNA evidence etc so we will probably never know but the Garda at major fault there. In fairness, I don't just blame the local Garda, a murder would be very unusual down there+ they should have gotten better directives from Dublin Head Office + why could aer lingus plane not have flown state pathologist down the day before?

    I think there should have been an actual trial in Ireland + we may have learned more about the case.

    I wouldn't argee with French court finding him guilty , mad you can do that when person not even there to defend themselves.

    It's one I'd those cases that will never be solved.



This discussion has been closed.
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