The Omicron variant

01-01-2022 3:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118400580#Comment_118400580

Of course we don't as there is not enough data, and yet you still "don't doubt" his opinion. Would you like to explain why not, considering that you've just stated that you don't know if he's right or wrong?

The point being made is is that that poster claimed that it was more likely than not that Omicron was the last VOC. In your first response to that post, it seems that you responded to a completely different post because everything you said after "I don't doubt that" in that post only explained why Omicron is more likely than Delta to be the last VOC. In other words, your reply to that post was completely pointless.

Perhaps I'll phrase it differently for you. Is the following statement true for you personally or not?

"I am aware of evidence that suggests Omicron is more likely to be the last VOC than not."

Note that there is no "I don't know" answer due to the first four words of this statement.

Beasty · 01-01-2022 3:17pm

Aristotle and Micky 32, just leave it there

amandstu · 01-01-2022 5:20pm

@political analyst Are you saying that you largely ignore(have ignored) medical advice with the exception of avoiding close contact with people you know are in a vulnerable group?

McGiver · 01-01-2022 6:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118400539#Comment_118400539

You're confusing variants and strains.

Variants = same Virus, vaccine will work - example Covid Alpha, Beta, Delta etc

Strains = different virus, vaccine won't work - example H5N1, H3N2 etc

If new Sars-Cov strain emerges we're fúcked. New variant is managable on the other hand.

Also, theatre notion of "last VOC" is nonsense. Evolution doesn't stop, I'm afraid.

jackboy · 01-01-2022 6:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401794#Comment_118401794

I was wondering about this. So many people saying Omicron is the end of the pandemic. Why wouldn’t the virus just keep mutating? Surely Omicron makes things much worse. It is so infectious, if it mutated into something much more dangerous vaccines could not be produced in time to save us.

Sweet.Science · 01-01-2022 6:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401850#Comment_118401850

World could end tomorrow.

Micky 32 · 01-01-2022 7:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401850#Comment_118401850

You mean like in all the other pandemics since the beginning of time that turned lethal and made humans extinct?

jackboy · 01-01-2022 7:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401977#Comment_118401977

Some of them had catastrophic death rates.

01-01-2022 7:17pm

I am reasonably optimistic that the SARS-CoV2 is learning to live among us without destroying us as would hopefully be the evolution of it. Of course there will be forever a degree of vigilance about it, but it is likely the world will be managing to live with it without too much bother to most individuals within the year. And we must not forget that vaccines did actually save lives.

Micky 32 · 01-01-2022 7:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401993#Comment_118401993

Yes in mid pandemic but all evolved to our advantage.

deholleboom · 01-01-2022 8:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401794#Comment_118401794

It of course depends on the definition of VOC. To me it seems a rather flexible term even though i am well aware of the official one. What i am hinting at is that the WHO might decide at some point that new variants might not be labeled as such until its impact is showing in a significant way. Omicron just might be the game changer. Hard to imagine a more transmissible variant..

El_Duderino 09 · 01-01-2022 8:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401850#Comment_118401850

Its mostly wishful thinking based on the popular idea that the virus will become milder with each iteration. There's an idea that it will become more more transmissable and less harmful and will only travel in that direction and with some kind of balance e.g. if it infects twice as many people then it will be half as harmful to balance it out.

The Omicron variant follows this idea by being more transmissible less harmful and some people think this means the next variant will be much more mild than this one. That's the way we all hope it will go but it's not the way it has to go or the only way it can go.

Well just have to wait and see how it actually goes. Its unsatisfying and it would be great if there was an easy answer, but there isn't an easy answer.

Danzy · 01-01-2022 8:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401850#Comment_118401850

Omicron being so transmissible means near every one will be exposed to it.

It ends the novelty factor, that the body was dealing with an unknown virus with which it had no experience.

It's the novel aspect that is such a problem for the body.

Wibbs · 01-01-2022 8:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118402018#Comment_118402018

This keeps being trotted out as a fact. IE viruses mutate, or overwhelmingly mutate down to less harmful forms. It's a complete bloody nonsense and no actual virologist would make anything like such a claim and I do wish people would stop peddling this ballsology.

Actually, for the craic go ahead and name one that did. Should be easy...

Or not. Smallpox: With us for over two thousand years. Didn't get any less nasty. That killed hundreds of millions of men women and kids in the 20th century alone. Influenza? Around for at least as long, most years it kills between a quarter and half a million every time it does the rounds. Didn't get any less nasty. Indeed when it does mutate it's more likely to become more nasty. That's when you get flu pandemics. Rabies, around for over three thousand years and still pretty much 100% fatal if you get it and don't get the vaccine before it spreads in your nerves. Did it get less dangerous? Polio, around for thousands of years, didn't get any less dangerous. Measles ditto. Tetanus around for thousands of years. Still deadly. HIV has been around for nearly fifty years. Did it get less dangerous? Bird flu strains have become more transmissable and more dangerous. Even ebola looks like it ramped up its nastiness. The 1918 flu that killed tens maybe even hundreds of millions at a time when the world's population was a quarter of what it is today? It got worse, much worse after the first wave.

Pandemics indeed came and went in the past. It wasn't because the viruses got any less deadly, it was simply because they burned through the population leaving the survivors with immunity to that strain and the dead. Neither of which can be hosts or get sick again. The viruses ran out of hosts, then as time passed and the immunity levels in a population dropped they came back, just as deadly as before. The invention of vaccination sped up the getting rid of suitable hosts by giving the uninfected immunity ahead of time. The viruses did not mutate or evolve "to our advantage".

El_Duderino 09 · 01-01-2022 8:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118402411#Comment_118402411

The vaccine took care of the novelty.

I don't know if catching the virus gives better protection than the vaccine. I've heard conflicting reports but not from brilliant sources. Does anyone know which gives better protection and how long protection lasts?

Before there were vaccines then catching it meant you had protection, but now I gather its all the same.

Micky 32 · 01-01-2022 9:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118402568#Comment_118402568

I never actually claimed they become less nasty per se. if you saw my other post on the forum i mentioned that they get so transmissable it burns through the population and mass immunity builds up. The Spanish flu was an example of this. I made a point of that in another post.This is more or less what i think will happen with Sars 2. Evolve as in more transmissable. Bear in mind viruses can get milder too, Omicron has. At the rate it’s burning it could peak soon and cases significantly drop in the next couple of months.

BTW calm down, high blood pressure and heart atacks may be worse than Covid 19.

Wibbs · 01-01-2022 10:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118402671#Comment_118402671

My blood pressures grand and if I were any more calm I'd be asleep.

I never actually claimed they become less nasty per se.

You said they "evolve to our advantage" they do not. They evolve to their advantage, while our immune systems evolve to fight back. That's how evolution works. That's how these zoonotic poxes make the jump to humans. They start off trying to get into the new host cells and fail quite a bit and over time get better at infection. The only thing that a virus' evolution cares about is transmission. Lethality is a coin toss. About the only selection pressure against lethality would be if it became so lethal that the hosts died out before transmission. Ebola is a crap virus because it's only infectious after really awful symptoms kick off, which tends to keep hosts away. With an asymptomatic spreader like covid this wouldn't be in play. It could be 50% lethal and still happily spread.

if you saw my other post on the forum i mentioned that they get so transmissable it burns through the population and mass immunity builds up. The Spanish flu was an example of this.

Spanish flu didn't get any more transmissable between outbreaks. Yes mass immunity built up, but it killed tens of millions doing so.

Bear in mind viruses can get milder too, Omicron has.

And that was extremely lucky that it did. It's a outlier in this regard.

Micky 32 · 01-01-2022 10:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403012#Comment_118403012

You are reading too much into my wording. When viruses evolve it then can be to our advantage as we then can live alongside them. That’s what i mean’t.

discostu1 · 01-01-2022 11:22pm

Might be worthwhile revisiting Sarah Gilberts piece from September Covid-19 will just end up causing a cold, says Oxford vaccine creator Sarah Gilbert | News | The Times

amandstu · 01-01-2022 11:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403323#Comment_118403323

Paywalled

ginoginelli · 01-01-2022 11:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403093#Comment_118403093

Youre backtracking again Mickey. You must be well used to it after all your false claims turned out to be bullshit time after time throughout this pandemic.

deholleboom · 01-01-2022 11:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403012#Comment_118403012

Viruses do all kinds of things, vary a lot and are not very predictable. Some carry on, some die out, some linger. We can make some assumptions in hindsight. Most of the time it is quesswork. This time, w SarsCov2 most damage was done by people's own immune system w organising pneumonia. We got better by better treatments, vaccines and general immunity. It worked its way through the system. It couldve stopped much earlier like Sars and Mers but managed to creep through for some considerable time. Omicron looks like Delta in some respects but is, luckily, different enough to win the race. Still a variant so not THAT different and even more important NOT SarsCov3.

We can thank our lucky stars it wasnt Measles.

All in all it seems to go in the right direction. I would say Omicron is about as transmissible as a virus can get though probably not as much as Measles and far far less damaging..

We can and should stop transmitting...fear

UrbanFret · 01-01-2022 11:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403415#Comment_118403415

https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus/2021/09/23/COVID-19-will-just-end-up-causing-a-common-cold-Oxford-vaccine-creator

discostu1 · 01-01-2022 11:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403415#Comment_118403415

Try this from Sky quoting Sarah but also Sir John Bell

COVID will end up resembling common cold by spring next year, leading experts say | UK News | Sky News

El_Duderino 09 · 01-01-2022 11:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403012#Comment_118403012

Lots of people assume that omicron is less lethal,b but we're comparing it to the recent big ones Alpha and Delta which were mostly active when there was no vaccine or most of the population wasn't vaccinated.

I'd dread to think if this variant was here this time last year. It appears to be far more transmissable and less harmful when working all vaccinated compared to last year when nobody was vaccinated. It would be interesting to know if its less harmful to an unvaccinated world or how much less harmful it is. That's the real comarison for omicron.

The fact that we're a highly vaccinated country is the world we're I'm so it makes sense to compare the impact of alpha/Delta vs omicron as we have changed. But to compare them without vaccines would be the comparison of how they have changed.

Micky 32 · 01-01-2022 11:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403425#Comment_118403425

Show me the backtracking and the bullshit? I have posted a lot of good factual info on these threads. None of us get everything right. All you seem to do is moan and bitch about other posters. I haven’t seen any constructive posting from you.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-01-2022 12:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403323#Comment_118403323

That's what we all hope for eventually. If it happens, how long it will take is the question.

That article is from September - before Omicron. Omicron certainly appears to be less harmful to a vaccinated society but we're back in restrictions. I remember reading other articles about her statement at the time and she said it could happen as soon a spring 2022. We'll just have to see what happens.

discostu1 · 02-01-2022 12:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403499#Comment_118403499

I think the fact that its Sept and both her and Bell felt this was going to go new milder variant with a significant improvement by Spring is very encouraging. Not saying they saw Omicron but these are both experts in the field both view the milder variant as very likely to happen......its happened

wally2022 · 02-01-2022 12:30am

Can anyone provide a copy and paste of that article?

Micky 32 · 02-01-2022 12:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118403564#Comment_118403564

I think a build up of immunity will be our main advantage. Some say in reality we could be at 40-50k cases a day. That’s circa 280-350k a week, Over a million cases a month. When you throw in immunity from the vaccinated, natural infection etc i don’t think the infection rate will be sustainable in the coming months. The virus is running out of places to go. This wave could peak soon and significantly drop.

The Omicron variant

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