Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

We have a finite population. There were some good explanations of this last week.

Also relevant that not everyone has school age going children and many people still have reduced contacts particularly if WFH.

I expect that schools opening will not dampen the peak. Do we want to lengthen this out longer than it needs to be?

The only caveat here is that Omicron has a high reinfection risk. It's pretty much unmanageable imo. Testing/tracing/isolating is no longer the correct approach and to put it crudely, we probably should "let it rip" at this point given our high levels of vaccination.

928 in hospital this morning.

173 confirmed cases in the last 24hrs while discharges increasing after the Bank holiday weekend up to 105.

I'll add on the 173 it says 74 is the number of new admissions covid positive, I'm going to assume based on previous graphs that's the number who had a positive PCR prior to admission. I could be wrong there and open to correction

Hi, I'm sure this has been discussed before but just want to check, because like a lot of the guidance it's not exactly clear. I'm abroad and due to return home on Saturday, so I need to get a PCR test. If it's positive, am I still able to travel home? I don't mind having to isolate if necessary but just want to clarify this for myself

I engaged with her yesterday on it and basically she thinks that we can still make covid go away by fitting air conditioning in every public building in the country and giving out public advice about ventilation.

Her frustration at being continuously ignored by politicians while also being given a big platform by the media is becoming apparent. She likely thought that because she was given airtime, that she would be listened to. As a result, the less relevant her solutions are becoming to the current situation, the more desperate she is to try and justify them.

She definitely had a good point that could have yielded a considerable bonus if it had been acted on in 2020. At this stage though it's too late. The primary driver of spread is in people's homes and they're not going to retrofit air filters or keep their windows and doors open for the next decade to try and stop the spread of covid. We can spend billions in a rushed operation to make sure every public building has air filtration systems, and it will do precisely **** all to stop Covid.

Much like closing nightclubs at 12 and pubs at 8 and reducing capacity in theatres etc it looks like the Government have a strategy of leaving things open but the reality is the places cannot function fully and may well be closed.

schools will be no different the government won’t close them but staff shortages will make them practically closed. Kids sitting in school doodling because their teacher isn’t in. But at least the government kept them open. They need to do something other then leave places half open or lockdown new ideas needed now at this stage.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2022/0105/1269884-covid-schools/

Growth in hospital admissions is beginning to taper off (believe it or not). We should begin to see a bigger ramp-up of discharges in coming days too to offset admissions. If we do peak in the next 4 days, it'll be pretty impressive that the models this time managed to get it fairly bang on the money. I guess that's the bonus of using proper inputs.

And assuming we peak this weekend, there's a 5-6 day lag time with hospital numbers, so we should start to see solid drops in hospital numbers by next weekend.

We're now 11 days into this surge and have seen basically no movement on ICU numbers. There's no reason to expect that to change, which means that this is effectively over bar the shouting.

Bit of an unknown with schools. Logic dictates that with kids going back to school we might see a second short peak around the 20th, but past experience is that kids going back to school doesn't yield the flood of new cases that everyone warns about. And certainly doesn't impact hospital numbers.

We're 2-3 weeks away from case numbers finally becoming irrelevant.

Even if you have a booster you're not allowed into the coutry without a negative test.

Get an antigen test rather than a PCR which may show positive for an old covid infection. Antigen will show positive for current infection I believe.

Add special needs education to that, its been devastating to their development.

Just a reminder that a COVID zero approach still exists and just how cruel and harsh it is. We have it easy!

From application for Covid sick pay/leave thing, how long did it take to be paid for it?

Applied 2 days ago is all (for period 27th Dec to 5th Jan)

Time has cruelly taught me that thinking you know what's going to happen next with a pandemic will guarantee you're wrong :D

If we logically follow the way things are going now, we can somewhat come up with a roadmap

• Cases will peak here and across the western world over the next 2 months
• The common belief (even from NPHET) is that case numbers will burn down to really low levels within 6 weeks of the peak [a]
• The realisation that testing & tracing is pissing in the wind with this variant; by the time you've tested someone and traced their contacts, you've missed the window to stop spread. To be effective, you would need to be turning around PCR tests in 12 hours and then going two levels deep on close contacts within 24 hours. [b]
• Omicron is not generally progressing to critical illness. [c]
• Antivirals are going to come online in the next 6 weeks. [d]
• Points b, c & d mean that the testing system will ramp down considerably and probably be reserved for hospital and GP referrals. People with symptoms will be simply told to stay at home until they feel better. People who feel very ill will be advised to contact their GP, who will order a test and prescribe antivirals.
• Points a, b & c will mean that covid certs/passes are obsolete for internal use. We will not be attempting to control spread nor protecting the unvaccinated, which means they have no purpose. We should see all venues and activities returning to full operation by March/April, but it could be longer depending on politicians' level of confidence.
• Some fear will still remain about new variants. The vaccination programmes for children will continue apace regardless of case numbers, and a new booster programme for at-risk individuals will pop up in August. Probably same again in 2023.
• Covid certs for travel will be chaotic for at least this year. The EU, UK & US will likely drop any pre-test requirements for travel, but may still require vaccination certs for travellers from far-flung places, to reduce the chances of importing an exotic variant. But other countries will have their own mixed bags. If you're not vaccinated & boosted, there's a good chance that your travel options will be limited to Europe and the US. And even then you may have to jump some extra hoops.

There's going to be lots of noise about some of this. You see people on Twitter saying, "Don't ignore Omicron; I've got it, you don't want it". But they've forgotten that the goal was never about protecting people from having to spend a few days in bed. It was always about keeping ICU numbers down so that hospital systems wouldn't collapse.

If a virus doesn't generaly progress to a critical illness, then governments are not under some moral obligation to try and control it.

Excellent point. But to be honest, I don't think jimmymack gives a f**k. I mean you would think the mentality of "I shouldn't travel if positive" would come into someone's mind before asking if they could or not. Therefore, if he could he would travel/enter the country while positive. Isn't that right Jimmy? Lol.

As I said here yesterday, people don't care anymore with covid.