Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I didnt coin the phrase but it is something that is going on. Do I think everyone is at it ? No I don't. Do I think that making the time a lot less for someone to legally access our welfare system from other countries to see this as something they would want. Yes I do - its human nature.

Hardly surprising when a global pandemic has been going on sure all travel both holidays and people emigrating inwards and outwards is down over the same period. Have you any stats for per 2019?

This is where the competing interests in society is going to come to a head. Those already here with mortgages well below the home value versus those that are renting many of whom are part of the immigration group which has brought prosperity to the country. Those existing homeowners are making micro decisions constantly such as objecting or gifting cash to their children which all contribute to the housing market not changing dramatically enough to match with the needs of our changed society which involves dramatically increased supply with much lower rents and more appropriate rentals in terms of size, space and amenities. If there is time left to try to continue to grow our productive society with high quality immigration, it will need to involve something extreme happening in the housing market as it is teetering on the brink at the moment with significant ramifications to the wider economy should rents and house prices (but mainly rents, the house prices increasing is incidental) continue rising. SF getting into power won't be a disaster but it won't be what is needed to grow the economy. Some sort of stagnant politics, economy and society is possible without changing the current situation, predominantly driven by high housing costs

It's explaining more than blaming. The crisis is a result of micro actions which taken as a whole are compounding the situation. Without a significant (ie 40% based on salaries) drop in rents, there will be a big clash between demographics and that ignores whether on paper the economy appears to be doing fine. Our immigration gift horse has been looked in the mouth.

Nothing can be done. Can't policy our way out of this.

5 years of excessive building and rate hikes and it'll be grand.

Or some global financial collapse will always do the trick.

Not to mention truly disastrous decision making for close on two decades now...get rid of bedsits, continually introduce legislation that takes the big bad landlords rights to their own property away from them and drives them out of providing accommodation.......one would be forgiven for thinking its govt policy to restrict supply of accommodation and consequently drive up property prices for various reasons

I mean they can't really be the shortsighted buffoons so many seem to think they are can they?

Some of the decisions mean people won't bother renting such is the risk to their property ..thus restricting supply thus driving prices higher etc etc

Or is there a huge payoff from funds purchasing/building for paper returns for pensions....

I shudder to think given the standard of what we've been electing and what looks likely to get elected

It's depressing tbh......seems to me things have been let get completely out of control.....feels like how banks which were supposed to be boring safe places for your money were let turn into bonus casinos is happening in many other sectors....everything seems very shortsighted and there are f all consequences unless you are a wage slave.

More QE and low interest rates won't work. That road is already coming to an end. You can't just perpetually create money from nothing and throw it into the economy as we have done for the last few years, it doesn't work like that and won't keep the economy stable if that essentially becomes the norm for the economy. An alternative solution will be needed should there be a crash and likely it will mean haircuts to salaries and jobs in the FIRE sectors and to valuations in assets. There are massive companies that are essentially prevented from going bust the last few years for no good reason as they have been squandering cash on buybacks and dividends, this is due to cheap refinancing available in the bond markets. It is like a gold rush and many people are filling their boots while the flow is good.

QE and low interest rates is causing the issue so it cannot also be the solution. This is sometimes used as a definition for insanity; doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

rte house prices at 7 times income... and rising..

even higher in dublin..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0104/1269659-house-prices-at-7-times-income-as-supply-dwindles/

Costs definitely going up.

Before Christmas a colleague was telling me she lives in a semi-D.

Her next door neighbor got a kitcehn extension finished for €47k in late 2017.

So she decided she would get the exact same design now that she had saved up the money. Contacted the same builder. Showed him the same plans.

He came back with a quote of €90k. She better keep saving. Im sure new build costs are rising at a similar pace.

If you cant build a house for a certain price now you wont be building it for that in the future unless you reduce the quality.

a lot of materials went up at the turn of the year, think its only OSB that has gone down down but that sky rocketed last year. it will 100% be passed on in new build prices . the only way is up

Sorry but your wrong the issue here is massive under supply and over demand. If QE or cheap interest rates where not here we would still have to house the people living here. The only way to sort it is to build maybe 100k houses for the next 5 years to catch up

I heard on radio recently 80% of our timber is exported, most of that in semi-state hands. Coilte have been calling for more timber use in housing construction, which of course would help reduce labour costs in the construction of housing

It would appear to be yet another own goal for a government that states housing is there number 1 priority

There's a lot of worry creeping into the markets now with the recent news from the Fed, European and tech stocks selling off today etc. Not a good time and things are uncertain. This could cause just another rumble to add to a bit of a problem in the markets in the next few months

rinse and repeat of last year and the year before