Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

I would agree with this, looking at the archive charts would bring a tear to your eye.

For example even average to mild winters such as 1957-8 and 1959-60 could deliver very potent northerly blasts with up to a week of lying snow, a northerly these days is practically T-shirt weather!

As for a big stationary Scandinavian high like in days gone by? Not a chance.

It seems northern blocking is only possible in spring now when the earth tilts towards to sun weakening the PV.

That's the way I used to think back in the 90s and 00s . That we were just being unlucky with the synoptics. That I suppose is part of it but we seem to need more luck to get a decent cold spell now then before. I think climate change is affecting the weather patterns and for us in our little corner of the world we are being affected badly as regards lack of cold spells.

There has been little change in the North Atlantic since. It remains firmly in a warm to notably warm state relative to average. There is nothing to suggest a tripole on the horizon that would be conducive to a persistent period of -NAO without influence from other external drivers, nor is there anything to suggest a very +NAO from the SSTs alone as there is no cold blob or reverse tripole, the Atlantic is just warm from top to bottom. What this does mean is anything from the west will be amplified or modified even more than usual. We may have seen this already with the New Year mild spell which could have been amplified from the notably warm Atlantic Ocean.

I do wonder what will be the talking point for this winter "going wrong" as all the signals going into it seemed to favour a cold winter for our part of the world; easterly QBO, a cold North Pacific as compared to the past decade, solar minimum lag, initial weak SPV signals (which did not verify), east Pacific La Nina, strong MJO. There always seems to be one new thing invented or discovered to blame for the winter being mild instead of being a cold, blocked one instead of just accepting where we are in the world. In my view, it's just another example of the geography of our location messing up any chance of cold. There has been notable cold this winter, look at Scandinavia and NE Europe or western Canada.

Last winter was different. There was tons of blocking. It often set up in an ok to good position for advecting cold in our direction but the lack of cold residue on the continent or from the north was a big issue, particularly in late December and early January 2020/21. This was partially the result of persistent blocking around the Urals that just would not let go - but it also perturbed the SPV a lot and led to a major SSW in early January which was succeeded by an easterly in early to mid-February. Then there is the ongoing warming which most certainly had a play in last winter being milder than what it would have been in colder times. The February easterly we were just unlucky (or lucky if you hate snow and severe cold) for the most part in advecting that severe cold unstable air to our shores from the northeast which gave Scotland a severe cold and snowy spell and parts of coastal eastern England did well too.

It's nonsense to say we won't ever get prolonged cold spells again or cold winters. They will happen. People are just negative Nancys - myself included. The fact we managed January 2010 and December 2010 in the same calendar year is exceptional to be honest and in this day and age, I can't think of much years with two such anomalously cold months in the same year in Ireland. Then there was March 2013 which was similarly anomalously cold relative to average, just it was more modified due to the time of year. April 2021 then was another one arguably speaking to some extent but primarily for its cold nights as maxima weren't too far from average. It's all about positioning of the blocking - if somewhere is cold on one side of the jet stream, the other has to be on the mild side. Just that we happen to find ourselves often on the mild side in winter due to our location. I think December 2010 ruined some of my expectations though as that was really a phenomenal month, the coldest month in Ireland since January 1881, that's 129 years! I need to keep reminding myself that.

My partner's sister lives in Edmonton, Canada.

They're in the middle of their coldest spell since 1969, 13 of the last 15 days have not got above -20C! Lows have been into the -30s at times.

It's interesting that western Canada has has such an eventful weather year, I wonder are these events linked or is it just one of those things.

I seem to remember January-February 86 being a particularly cold period, with a 6-week freeze; and indeed the summer that year was one of the most miserable I have ever experienced.

I never hear any discussion of it though, perhaps because the weather was overshadowed in the news by the Chernobyl disaster.

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the winter where our winters started to become milder overall and decent cold spells became fewer from that winter on. Granted the 60s for example were a cold period of winters as was the period 77 -87 so they weren't the norm either but I feel something changed regarding our winters from that winter on....

I remember well waking up one morning in early March and feeling something was wrong, but I couldn't put my finger on it.

When I walked outside the puzzle was solved immediately - the constant east wind of the previous weeks had died and all was still and quiet. Obviously the lack of the wind's sound was what had flummoxed me on waking!

I suspect the windchill resulting from the non-stop wind made the month feel substantially colder than the thermometer was saying.

Eh Feb 1991 there was an easterly, that’s 31 years ago. Also 2009 we had a few days in Feb. February is a winter month?

Jesus it’s a dark dank horrible Jan day.

No he means Feb 86 was an easterly for the whole month. Although I'm not sure boards.ie snowbies could cope with how dry it was if it was ever repeated 🤣

Maybe we need a historical weather thread?