FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Billcarson · 11-01-2022 3:05pm

I think sometimes the gfs can be good at picking out northerlies, or where it picks up on one ditches it and goes back to it again. Hopefully its onto something.........

Gonzo · 11-01-2022 3:13pm

The main problem with that northerly on the 6z is the heights try to get to Iceland/Greenland but it does not stay there, it moves southwards very quickly and the cold receeds very quickly back into the continent. If only we could get the high to stay put up there for 4 to 5 days at the very least with an extension into the North Atlantic, then we would be in business. We need to stop the Atlantic from coming anywhere near us.

On the 6z we do get high pressure rebuilding over us after the northerly pushes through and we are on the cold side of the ridge so plenty of frost if it verified. At least that is more seasonal than the mild high we have right now.

Reversal · 11-01-2022 3:29pm

GEFS flipping as fast as the op runs.

Gonzo · 11-01-2022 3:59pm

GFS 06z P3 does a better job of that northerly, however for us it is also rather dry and short lived but it is very cold indeed.

The above would be perfection if the mid Atlantic ridge shifted another 300 miles to the west, this would produce snow for us.

Some of the GFS members are also hinting at another cold outbreak around the final week of January.

Gonzo · 11-01-2022 6:07pm

GFS 12z and the cold northerly is more of less gone for us, makes a swipe at the UK and cold air plunges from Scandi down into Italy and Greece.

highdef · 11-01-2022 6:11pm

Well it's not looking so rosy in the 12z run, which most of us were kinda expecting anyway

Gonzo · 11-01-2022 6:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118456750#Comment_118456750

Let's bring proper cold to every country in Europe except Ireland.

We really have the worst position in terms of geography for cold and snow. The sun, moon and stars need to all align at the perfect moment.

Donegal Ken · 11-01-2022 8:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118456978#Comment_118456978

You hit the nail the head 😂

Gonzo · 11-01-2022 8:55pm

Most of the GFS 12z members have backed off the cold spell for Ireland. UK is still in the running of course and much of the eastern 2/3s of Europe going into the freezer in about a weeks time, could even go south-west towards Spain and Portugal and even parts of north Africa. This could be one of those 2012 scenarios where almost the entire continent has freezing temperatures and snow cover with Ireland the only green patch. The 12z is still unlikley to verify, in reality this cold plunge may only affect Scandi and the usual places like eastern Europe and Greece. High pressure looks like it's going nowhere fast over the next 2 weeks.

Almost all the precipitation on this chart is snow for Athens. This is almost the inverse of the Dublin charts.

mcburns07 · 11-01-2022 9:24pm

A dry week coming up with seasonal temperatures and some sun at times :) i'll take it

beggars_bush · 11-01-2022 10:22pm

esposito · 12-01-2022 12:06pm

So looks like this high pressure is going absolutely nowhere for the rest of January. A borefest however at least the ground will dry out and we may get frost and fog with daytime temps 5-8 C generally so feeling somewhat seasonal.

Artane2002 · 12-01-2022 12:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118460231#Comment_118460231

I doubt it'll stick around for the entire month, the models were also showing last month's high to stay for the entire month but the very opposite ended up happening...

They could be correct this time but unlikely.

esposito · 12-01-2022 1:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118460510#Comment_118460510

Hopefully the HP will move to Greenland and a northerly/ north easterly will ensue. Wishful thinking.

Artane2002 · 12-01-2022 1:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118460667#Comment_118460667

Well the ECM ensembles last night had 14 out of 51 members clearing the high from us and with troughing over the continent delivering a northerly/northeasterly by the 26th so let's hope that signal gains traction. I haven't looked at this morning's set.

Gonzo · 12-01-2022 2:39pm

Looks like there could be very little to talk about over the next 2 weeks with high pressure going nowhere fast. GFS maintains it till the end of the run which is almost the end of this month and CFS maintains it till the end of the first week of February and back to zonality after that. The best we can hope for in terms of seasonal weather this month is some frost or fog. We are now counting on February to deliver the white gold, a position I didn't think we'd be in by now with all the positivity during the start of December.

pauldry · 12-01-2022 3:36pm

Yes dry mainly for the next 500 hours. I think Met Eireann can put up a fog warning and go on holidays for a few weeks. Just put

"Some light drizzle at times over the NW however mainly dry with good sunshine. Fog slow to clear East and South. Max 5 to 9c min 0 to 4c."

That would be the forecast most days for the rest of January before rain returns some time in February with our 1 day of snow.

nacho libre · 12-01-2022 3:41pm

I doubt it will stay dry for the rest of the month, no doubt weak fronts will bring light rain and drizzle from time to time. I don't think we are going to get a ssw this year, so we are probably not going to have a prolonged cold outbreak. However, if the tpv relents we may get brief potent northerlies at some stage in February. I have read with an east based la Nina the chances of a cold end to winter increase. I would love a potent cold spell at the heart of winter, but that ship has sailed for another year. Hopefully February can deliver something. It's usually our best time for snow anyway.

CrowdedHouse · 12-01-2022 3:46pm

You mean my car could stay clean for several days...\o/ 😊

Gonzo · 12-01-2022 7:36pm

Just before everyone decides that January is going nowhere, there is still a sliver of hope that we may eventually get the high pressure up to Greenland during the final week of January. The GFS 12z operational isn't great and slim chance of a flimsy looking northerly towards the end of it's run. However the Control run and a few of the other GFS ensembles are starting to show ridging from the Atlantic up to the western side of Greenland and this allows bitterly cold air to move south-eastwards over us. The chances of this happening are probably less than 1% but the chance of something colder and more wintry for the end of January is still on the table.

Despite the north-westerly wind direction, there is no Atlantic modification with this as the winds are really sourced from the Artic and North-west Russia. We have had nothing but bad luck after bad luck this winter, it is about time we start getting some luck. Getting very tired at cold charts diving from Scandi to Greece.

I'm not ready to give up on January just yet. I have all my straws laid out on the table.

About a 1/3rd of the GFS ensembles bring high pressure towards or over Greenland during the final week of January opening the door to more suitable blocking than what we have seen so far this winter. There is still hope.

Billcarson · 12-01-2022 8:08pm

Its sure is frustrating. Last winter when we had better synoptics there was less cold air to tap into. This year there is more proper cold about but the synoptics around our part of the world aren't allowing us to tap into it. Too much energy around Greenland.

Our hp does try to go northwards at times on the models but each time falls back. Its like its waiting for that chance . Hopefully at some point it will make it.

Gonzo · 12-01-2022 8:13pm

I think we will open the doors to the north and north-east at some point but it needs to be within the next 3 to 4 weeks at the very most before I start losing interest. Getting cold in March and April is not really what I want when any snow that falls is usually very transitional and you can't help but think 'if only we had this in January or early February. Final week of February is when we start to see noticeable brighter evenings and stronger sun and artic plunges need to be direct hits by that point.

Gonzo · 13-01-2022 12:44am

GFS 18z doesn't look very interesting until you look closer and rewind the frames from +384 hours all the way back to the present. The high pressure which is currently starting to dominate our weather is situated over us, the UK and western Europe with the core over southern parts of Ireland, UK and into southern Germany. At the same time we currently have loads of energy over Canada keeping the high pressure from going north so the high just glues itself to Ireland and the UK over the next few days and has zero chance of going northwards for the time being.

Throughout the GFS run the high doesn't appear to move very far from us over the next week but as you get towards the end of the run it does appear that the high is very slowly on the move towards Greenland.

Around the 324 hour mark we start to see that all important energy decrease considerably over Canada which would make the route for high pressure to Greenland certainly easier compared to what it has been all winter so far. We start losing those deep purples over eastern Canada with pressure increasing.

The end of the run the high is getting ever closer to Greenland and further away from us. Another severe blast of artic air is about to make it's way southwards and flirts with eastern UK. It wouldn't take much adjustment for this to pure the cold down over us.

This is over 2 weeks away so these charts are unlikely to verify but imagine if the high pressure moves a bit further west and north than what is shown here then we could be in business. All depends on the strength on the energy over Canada into Greenland, are we starting to see a trend of that weakening over the next 2 weeks? If so then our chances of finally getting proper cold over us will increase dramatically.

The energy between Canada and Greenland over recent weeks has totally prevented us from tapping into cold weather as the high pressure just cannot go north or west enough from us.

If this is the evolution of a bitterly cold spell for us then this is one hell of a slow burner and immense patience will be required over the next two weeks to see if we can finally pull off a proper taste of winter. We may have to wait till February to finally tap into it and by then the PV should start to weaken a bit. The PV has done us no favours this winter and is responsible for keeping all this energy in the wrong place.

pauldry · 13-01-2022 1:29pm

I'm pinning everything to a February Freeze Gonzo. Ya see everything will start to open everywhere in full again so the weather will say screw this and freeze us with a month of continuous ice and snow. 1 per cent chance it will happen.....so there is a chance.

MICKEYG · 13-01-2022 1:36pm

First time poster here. many thanks to all the people who contribute.

I am sure this is not the case as if it was the models would adjust but

if a model shows a LT forecast of mild and wet it rarely changes to cold and snowy
if a model shows a LT forecast of cold and snowy it nearly always changes to mild and wet
Very frustrating but we live in hope

Gonzo · 13-01-2022 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118467046#Comment_118467046

that is generally very true about Irish weather. Normally we spend all summer trying to chase a high pressure for a few sunny days while the Atlantic continues with it's conveyer belt of low pressures. Same in winter really. The cold and snow is nearly always 10 days away and continues that way all the way from December to March.

The past 9 months have been a bit strange tho, the weather flipped from cold to warm on 30th May and since then we haven't really shifted the warmth or the high pressure properly! The high pressure which will dominate over the next 2 weeks appears to be the same high pressure we had through the summer and autumn. We are either under it as we are right now or it is below us and feeds warm south-westerlies over us. This was a great weather pattern for the summer and early September but it has pretty much destroyed our winter and we're still waiting for the weather flip back to cold or something different to happen.

pauldry · 13-01-2022 2:11pm

And yet despite this we had storm Barra causing lots of damage in Sligo with winds over 120kph and then the mysterious storm on New Year's Day when we went for a drive and when we returned it looked like the weather had robbed us. Our gate that survived Barra was smashed and all the driveway flooded.

Since then the weather had gone into hiding though. It seems recently our weather is just quiet most of the time but pummel us with a short wake up.

Like the rains in Wexford at Christmas, Storm Barra, heavy rain in the South a couple of months ago and the mysterious nameless New Year's Day wind.

highdef · 13-01-2022 4:11pm

If (and I doubt it) this is change in climate due to climate change, I welcome it. Very warm and sunny spells in summer and not too cold in winter combined with light winds the majority of the time is as near to perfection as I can think of. This would really make us the Goldilocks of perfect weather for many industries, especially the likes of the data centres that are extremely popular in Ireland, with our already rarely severe climate making this country an obvious choice to locate (taxes aside). The only fly in the ointment would be that the drop in wind will (and already is) leading to issues with wind sourced electricity and I've read that no new data centre development is permitted in the Dublin region owing to a lack of electricity.

Anyway, I digress.....apologies!

Gonzo · 13-01-2022 5:18pm

GFS 6z for right now:

GFS 6z for 16 days time:

16 days apart the charts are almost identical. If this verifies the boredom and frustration will be very real.

Derekon2021 · 13-01-2022 5:35pm

Still better than endless Atlantic muck, wind and rain........

D

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST