Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Derekon2021 · 10-01-2022 3:26pm

Let's look forward to an early Spring so! Personally speaking, the pandemic has put the annual chase for snow into perspective!

D

Derekon2021 · 10-01-2022 3:26pm

Thelonious Monk · 10-01-2022 4:51pm

Today feels so mild for January, it's lovely but feels wrong, we better get used to it though

Last 7 years 'warmest on record' globally, EU climate service reports

compsys · 10-01-2022 4:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118449575#Comment_118449575

My fear is that we end up with a cold April and May. As the run of warm weather has to end eventually and our weather usually has a way of evening itself out.

I've heard others argue that just because we've had 8 months of above average temps, it doesn't mean we're any more or less likely to see warmer or colder weather this summer. That the probability remains the same (the same way the probability of winning the Lotto is the same regardless of whether it's won the previous week).

Is that really true here though?

With the Lotto it's re-set every week and all the balls are just put back into the same drum - and everything restarts afresh. That's not the same with the weather, which is ever changing so you-re not starting from the same position.

Gonzo · 10-01-2022 5:37pm

I am getting concerned when this prolonged spell of warm weather will end and how long will the colder spell go on for when it eventually happens. At this stage we have wasted half of winter with nothing to show for it and the rest of January looks more of the same. If we could end the warm spell end of January leading to a cold February and March then that would be great. However luck has not been on our side and just about everything has gone wrong this winter.

I am concerned that this warm spell may not properly end till April or May and then we could flip into a cold and wet summer. At this stage i'm prepared to wave the white flag and let this winter die in order to keep the warm trend going till at least August, so that we could have a nice warm Spring and a summer as good if not better than last summer. I do not want to lose both winter and summer.

Speak Now · 10-01-2022 5:42pm

I think we need a doom and gloom thread for Gonzo.

esposito · 10-01-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118450701#Comment_118450701

Gonzo needs to have a look at the GFS 12z for Monday/Tuesday next week. Might cheer him up a little. But in fairness I get where he is coming from. Don’t want a crap winter and a crap summer.

pad199207 · 10-01-2022 6:12pm

Enjoyed that stretch in the evening

Gonzo · 10-01-2022 6:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118450756#Comment_118450756

Yeah what I said wasn't in any way a forecast but just thinking outloud, if this warm spell ends in the Spring, then a cool and wet summer could happen and I'm prepared to let this winter go in order to keep the mild to warm spell going with high pressure regularly appearing during the summer when we need it most to deliver another decent summer. Maybe by then we could have hopefully a colder September than we did last year and a better footing for next winter. To me a decent summer is every bit as important as a decent winter, I don't want to lose both and would rather keep one of them intact.

Gonzo · 10-01-2022 6:46pm

What the models are hinting at is that the extreme pool of brutal cold sitting over Western Canada is finally on the move and this will dive south-eastwards into eastern Canada and eastern United States. This is likely to amplify the jetstream in about a weeks time and this weeks high pressure may move into the mid Atlantic and with alot of luck may get pulled towards Greenland/Iceland. We may then be in a position to get some colder air from the north-west or north after that.

Looking at the CFS long range, not reliable in any way, but it is hinting at a change for February and into March and it is certainly more regularly colder than anything we've seen in the past 9 months. If it was to verify we would certainly see plenty of frost and some snow at times through February and into March, lasting into April and perhaps even some wintryness in early May.

No doubt we will see some more snow over the next 3 months but I don't want it after first week of March!

Dazler97 · 10-01-2022 7:46pm

Will we have a cold blast? I think Feb is favourited as most February is cold, don't forget we still have March and April too so winter isn't gone yet

Mantis Toboggan · 10-01-2022 7:56pm

Looks like it's dry and settled for the next week or so!

pauldry · 10-01-2022 8:42pm

Whatever about anything I hope we don't get a weatherless long spell like the back end of last year but I fear we may. Next 10 days see little rain wind snow or frost. After that there are hints of brief period of cold followed by another dry weatherless spell

Gonzo · 11-01-2022 12:49am

Today will be the last very mild day for a while. From tomorrow high pressure with plenty of dry weather will take over and temperatures by day generally 5 to 9C over the next week with night time temperatures between 0C and 5C. It will be mainly cloudy over the next 2 days but sunshine should become more of a feature later in the week and a better chance of frost in the second half of this week.

pad199207 · 12-01-2022 12:14pm

Status Yellow - Fog warning for Leinster, Munster

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Fog or freezing fog will develop this evening, becoming dense in parts of Munster and Leinster overnight leading to impaired visibility and hazardous driving conditions. On Thursday fog will be slow to lift and may linger locally beyond the warning period.

Valid: 20:00 Wednesday 12/01/2022 to 12:00 Thursday 13/01/2022

Issued: 11:06 Wednesday 12/01/2022

Billcarson · 12-01-2022 12:46pm

I don't like gloomy weather usually but I do like fog. I love thick fog.

Billcarson · 12-01-2022 9:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118464077#Comment_118464077

I think that yr it stopped around south east england. The following year it stopped at Wales in January 2013.

Billcarson · 12-01-2022 10:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118464462#Comment_118464462

Yes 2012 was the one. Very cold in Europe The 2013 spell wasn't as severe. In 2012 I think South East England was affected by the cold spell the end of jan and most of the first half of feb.

Gonzo · 12-01-2022 10:59pm

Winter 2012 was the ultimate kick in the nuts for Irish cold and snow fans. The entire UK mainland was covered in snow and bitterly cold temperatures, as was much of the continent including some mediterranean areas. Ireland was green and a relatively mild Atlantic air with drizzle and mist. I don't think we even got frost. The cold basically surrounded Ireland on 3 sides with everything north, east and south of us cold and fairly snowy.

pad199207 · 12-01-2022 11:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118464601#Comment_118464601

It’s the one setup that would make a cold lover in Ireland almost shed a tear it hurts that much.

sryanbruen · 13-01-2022 12:32am

A while back I was reading through the prelude thread to the February 2012 easterly and Jesus, talk about a fall from grace! Many of you seemed to be excited at the prospects of what looked to be a textbook beast from the east directly towards Ireland. Then there was one guy who was all pessimistic, made very bold claims about it missing Ireland altogether and be displaced southward via too much Atlantic pressure. Ok maybe not very bold claims if the same were to occur now but this was following on from 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 which all provided a decent period of cold and snow at one point or another. After a very poor winter up to that point (only thing I remember resembling any cold weather was some polar maritime shots in mid-December) and a huge disappointment compared to early winter 2010-11 the previous year, I think the excitement was warranted at the prospects of winter finally getting its act together. But as with this winter, it was just another example of our location messing us up.

Then there was the atrocious summer and December 2012 flop in the same year (and subsequently January 2013 that was mentioned too 😏). 2012 really was a bad year. Glad I wasn't following models then, I was just a kid watching the weekly BBC weather uploads to YouTube or the occasional RTÉ forecast 😂

highdef · 13-01-2022 11:32am

Although it's only sunny today in parts of coastal eastern and southern areas, I'd gladly take mainly calm and dry conditions, sometimes cloudy/sometimes sunny for the rest of the winter. Lack of wind means it never feels as cold as it might be. The lack of rain can help the ground dry up somewhat making outdoor leisure activities all the better.

If there's not going to a load of snow, I'll the take the current synoptic setup in a heartbeat.

Elmer Blooker · 13-01-2022 1:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118464729#Comment_118464729

doesn’t it seem to snow in Athens every winter now? If there’s a Greek weather forum (and I’m sure there is) how the snow fans there must love these big mid latitude highs that now seem to be a permanent fixture during every 21st century winter which brings the cold from Russia to their parts.

A poster on NW mentioned it was snowing in Rome yesterday ☹️

Gonzo · 13-01-2022 3:02pm

It really is annoying. One of the snowiest places in Europe in recent years is definitely northern Greece. Over the past 5 winters the cold and snow comes in waves from Scandi or Russia into Greece and Turkey while the north-west of Europe is bathed in Atlantic mild muck or high pressure with no sign of any cold. Greece has already had 2 proper wintry outbreaks this winter with snow and looks like they are going to get at least 1 or 2 more of them over the next 2 weeks.

The models yesterday showed that we may be getting somewhere but have reverted back to the high pressure going nowhere over the next 2 weeks and the energy remains far too strong between Canada and Greenland. Until we see a big shift in the models this is just going to go on and on and on.

Billcarson · 13-01-2022 4:33pm

Any winter when we see Greece getting snow, I tend to think of that as something that rarely bodes well for our winter here. As bad as getting a very warm September which rarely bodes well for us the last 25 yrs or so, I would put Greece getting snow in the same not boding well category.

Elmer Blooker · 13-01-2022 5:16pm

I looked up ‘Athens snow’ over a cuppa tea earlier and I saw that there were record breaking snowfalls there during the first week of Jan 2002.

I then had a look at the charts for that week and saw what I expected ..... a big 1040 Euro slug!

It would have been 12-14c here without a doubt.

edit: talking of Greece says it all , nothing happening here and YET another winter slipping away

esposito · 13-01-2022 5:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118468438#Comment_118468438

Agreed. Never a good sign for us. I’m beginning to really dislike Greece!

Gonzo · 13-01-2022 6:20pm

GFS 12z brings no less than 3 bitterly cold plunges towards/over Greece between now and the end of January. This winter could be their 2010/1982.

We get 2 more weeks of 5 to 11C with most nights staying frost free.

Thinking ahead, the longer this goes on for the more I worry about this summer. we've already lost the best part of winter at this stage. At some point the models well do a total flip to prolonged unsettled conditions and rather cool conditions. If this happens in February we may get lucky with a cold February and possibly March. If the warmth and high pressure dominance generally carries on till May and flips before June then it's curtains for summer.

The sooner we flip to a colder and more unsettled pattern the better.

Supercell · 14-01-2022 9:21am

Looking at the fax charts I'd say some parts are not going to see sun for the next week, just endless overcast stratus that highs with a southerly wind direction brings and no power in the sun to burn it off this time of year.

highdef · 14-01-2022 10:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118472129#Comment_118472129

I'll take that any day over wind and rain 😊

Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Comments

Status Yellow - Fog warning for Leinster, Munster