General British politics discussion thread

I remember Cummins couldn't accept that Boris was giving into his wife over Cummins, and Cummins being Cummings was leaking negative stories against her. That was the final straw that made Boris fire him. I reckon he hates her more than Boris

1. The draft report will be sent to him if it contains any criticism of him, and indeed it will be sent to anyone else who is criticised in it. This is standard practice; it's considered unfair to publish criticism of people without first telling them of the intended criticism, giving them a chance to object, defend themselves, etc, and then considering their response before finalising the report.
2. Regarding the vote of confidence, some may think that Johnson has a better chance of surviving the vote of confidence if is held now, before Gray's report is published, than he will after. So it's possible that Johnson supporters are trying to bring the matter to a head by writing to Brady. And ther are others - not in the Tory party, obviously, but outside it - who hope that Johnson does survive a vote of confidence so that the party will be saddled with him for at least another 12 months; they reckon the longer Johnson remains in office the more the party will be damaged.

A new PM with a new cabinet will still have the same majority as Johnson, though - they're already an unmanagable, whip defying lot.

The majority is being used as a - clearly wrong - reason to hold on to Johnson by various people, extensively Patel. That's my point

He is now a threat to the majority in every way.

None of those. The parliamentary majority.

And in further damage to that majority, Christian Wakeford (Bury South, "red wall" etc etc) has crossed the floor to Labour.

Majority of 78 (was 87 at time of election), two by-elections which are likely to leave it the same - and this is despite the Tories winning Hartlepool. There are a few suspended Tories that could in theory come back in to the fold.

I would not be surprised if a few more cross the floor, or at least go Independent, should Boris get challenged and survive.

He's come out trying to waffle his way out of it this week, there's no attempt to pretend to wear sackcloth and ashes. He got tied up in knots at one point at Starmer's questions and just went full bore into the "if we'd listened to them we'd still be in lockdown" schtick. Absolutely pathetic.

That constituency was such a mess its hard to tell

Previous Labour MP was out of the party over sexual misconduct allegations; he then left the party (that he was suspended from!) over Corbyn and sat as an Independent. He took over 1300 votes as an Independent, and the Tory won by 400 - but there was also over 1600 votes to BXP and 2300 to Lib Dem. And while its "red wall" it has some very, very wealthy areas - and also very significant Jewish areas that would have usually been Labour through and through but might not have been in 2019.

AV would likely have given it to Labour. A lot of the Labour votes will be for whoever holds the rosette so if he manages to get re-selected for them he'd probably hold it due to the suppression in Tory votes, no Corbyn issues etc etc.

Finally, a Tory stands up and asks for him to go.

Just tuned in to the live PMQ and heard the question about what will Boris do to give hope to the over tired and over worked doctors and nurses of the NHS.

What a waste of a fxxxin question! 🙄

He can't even keep a straight face now when he says they have to wait for the outcome of the inquiry!