General Irish politics discussion thread

L1011 · 18-01-2022 11:12am

That was one of the more silly "look, we're making sacrifices too" cuts. Along with gutting local Government and cutting to and then keeping the bare minimum number of TDs after each census (we're going to have to go over the old 166 figure after April now anyway).

Brussels Sprout · 18-01-2022 12:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118493334#Comment_118493334

Things like that really hit home with the average voter though, for the simple reason that the average voter thinks that we spend far more on our politicians than we actually do. I recall there was a poll done and on average people guessed that 10% of the government's spend went on public officials salaries, expenses and upkeep. (The actual figure was less than 1%).

As such removing those cars, which had negligible financial impact would have had a bigger political impact than the refinancing of our national debt which would have had a massive impact on the national finances.

L1011 · 18-01-2022 1:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118493868#Comment_118493868

Well, there's a frequent poster over in CA who always claims that cutting TDs salaries would fund whatever it is they're proposing.

Some of the proposals would cost more than I suspect we've paid in TDs salaries since 1922!

Obviously inaccurate hope to think its not a commonly held viewpoint.

green daries · 18-01-2022 1:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118494068#Comment_118494068

What is ca

L1011 · 18-01-2022 1:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118494105#Comment_118494105

Current Affairs forum here.

green daries · 18-01-2022 1:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118494112#Comment_118494112

Thanks 👍

Loafing Oaf · 18-01-2022 4:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118493868#Comment_118493868

Although they rejected the reform that would have had the biggestn impact on the cost of government, abolishing the Seanad.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495404#Comment_118495404

They promised that the Seanad would be reformed, but what is a political promise worth?

One reform of the Seanad I would like would be the direct election of senators on the same day as the GE with the inability to stand in both - with the intention of stopping the retirement home for failed TDs and school for aspiring TDs.

Politicians do a lot of good work (not all, and some could be done without), and it is not a job many would choose - it requires too much public scrutiny and too much of one's life is in full view.

Brussels Sprout · 18-01-2022 5:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495760#Comment_118495760

That's an interesting proposal. How many seats do you think should be in it and what kind of regional breakdown would there be for the constituencies (bearing in mind that typically upper houses have less seats and larger constituencies) ?

L1011 · 18-01-2022 6:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495760#Comment_118495760

Nobody promised that the Seanad would be reformed, though

The No campaign claimed it would be, but they weren't in Government and had no ability to actually follow up such a promise.

The referendum was scrap or retain as is.

L1011 · 18-01-2022 6:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495792#Comment_118495792

I suspect that using the same consitutiences, 6 seat Dáil (only size - break county boundaries if required) plus 3 seat neo-Seanad would probably be OK.

Having two constituency boundaries would cause confusion.

Loafing Oaf · 18-01-2022 6:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495818#Comment_118495818

Any politically aware person should have been aware that such reform was very unlikely to happen anyway. Very difficult to change the Seanad significantly within the current constitutional constraints, and it was obviously unlikely any government would be bringing another seanad referendum to the people for a good while.

Podge_irl · 18-01-2022 6:21pm

The govt were explicit that it was a "keep it as is or abolish" vote, which was thankfully defeated because it was not what people wanted. Refusing to reform it was childish and petulant. It was a cynical referendum aimed at achieving (imagined) populist support.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2022 6:26pm

Well, I think 90 seats is plenty.

Currently, the Taoiseach selects eleven, so that the Gov has the possibility of a majority. That should remain - particularly valuable in coalition negotiations - it is all about jobs.

Currently, senators are elected to panels, rather than geographic regions. The candidates could declare which panel they wish to be considered for, and their qualifications that justify them being elected. The current university positions would be just two further panels.

Voters could either vote in all panels or just one or maybe two. Counting would be a problem, plus the number of candidates would be too many. Perhaps a geographic element would make sense, but look at the mess there is with the EU parliament elections. It would need a new voting system - perhaps limit the voters choice to five (vote 1 to 5 on the ballot - I doubt that many voters would have a real preference beyond that anyway).

Needs a lot of thought and teasing out. A job for the Citizen's Assembly.

Brussels Sprout · 18-01-2022 6:43pm

I think kicking it up to the Citizen's Assembly would be a good idea. They could get constitutional experts, political scientists and politicians themselves to talk through various options over a matter of months. That model has worked well in the past for other complex issues. Anything that they come up with would need a referendum so I don't see really see the purpose of keeping the panel system or the Taoiseach's picks - may as well start from scratch and have all options on the table.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2022 6:55pm

I think the aim should be to make it more relevant, and remove the notion of failed TDs, retirement home for worthies, etc.

There is a need for Taoiseach's picks so coalition formation can get a few goodies to settle differences.

But Citizen's Assembly is your only man. Well informed and interested participants schooled by experts.

L1011 · 18-01-2022 7:01pm

Cabinet appointments are how every other country in Europe hands coalition dealings, and so it should be here.

Brussels Sprout · 18-01-2022 7:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118496152#Comment_118496152

The thing with Taoiseach's picks is that it (depending on the number but definitely with the current 11) gives the government of the Dail an effective majority in the Seanad as well. The upside of that is that it prevents the kind of gridlock you can get when different parties have control in the different houses (e.g. the USA quite often). The massive downside of it though is that it basically just makes the Seanad a rubber stamping talking shop that serves no function whatsoever, i.e. exactly what it is today.

If you're going to reform that house then you have to get rid of that automatic majority, otherwise just abolish the damn thing and be done with it.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2022 9:11pm

Well, that is where the CA comes into its own. They will be informed by experts from all sides, discuss it among themselves with help from leaders, and then discuss it a bit more. Then they make proposals and vote on them.

Amazingly, they come out with very good proposals the politicians are too afraid to say themselves.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 11:33am

Yeah I'm a big fan of the Assembly. I watched some of the sessions via Webcam and it seems very well thought out and executed. I was a little bit surprised when they made their recommendations for the 8th Referendum and legislation as it seemed far more progressive than anything the the politicians had ever discussed but the result in the actual Referendum showed that they were more in tune with the population as a whole.

Sam Russell · 19-01-2022 12:03pm

CA is the representation of the population as a whole - that is the point. They are selected by a very thorough system to get them to be representative.

If you compare it to the audience of the BBC Question Time during the Brexit time, the QT audience are selected to be as confrontational and atypical as possible - to make good TV. The CA are selected to make good decisions that are representative of the nation. Quite different.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 4:46pm

Three days in a row now the Irish Times have ran opinion pieces having a pop off of Sinn Fein.

On Monday Joe Joyce wrote a piece entitled "No room for complacency over Sinn Féin in government"

Yesterday it was former Sunday Independent editor and former wife of Eoghan Harris, Anne Harris, who managed to pivot in the middle of a piece ostensibly about the Aisling Murphy case to single Sinn Fein out for some attacks

Three years ago, the village of Enniskerry was in anguish over the abduction and murder of Jastine Valdez just as the people of Tullamore are over Ashling Murphy today. Jastine Valdez’s parents are “new Irish” and she was aspiring to that too. The Filipino/Irish community was gutted with grief. There was a candlelit vigil.

But there were no widespread calls for national vigils for Jastine Valdez. The president did not send a special message, Sinn Féin did not organise a candle lit vigil in Belfast, Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill did not talk about a “watershed moment”. There were no vigils in New York, London and Edinburgh.

Mary Lou MacDonald did not announce a motion to establish a “gender-based unit within the Government”.

....

The nationwide rallies in protest at the verdict in the Belfast rape trial were heavily peopled by men, as vociferous in their calls as women. The then minister for justice Charlie Flanagan, a man, immediately responded by commissioning a report into sexual violence. Its recommendations form the basis of the “ambitious strategy”, about to be announced by Minister for Justice Helen McEntee.

But Sinn Féin won’t wait. The white heat of the social media response clearly provides the potential for another “youthgrab”. Their motion for a “gender unit” in Government smacks of the callous politicising of a brutal murder. Besides it doesn’t make sense. A sudden random act of violence is a social not a political issue. How can a deranged and evil decision by one individual to kill an innocent woman be legislated for? What law can prevent that?

link

Then today it was Michael McDowell's turn, with a piece entitled "Does it matter how Sinn Féin organises itself?"

I'm neither a SF member nor have I ever voted for them but this sort of bias really irritates me. One of the things that I think we do well in Ireland is have newspapers that are far less partisan than they are in the UK. The one major exception to this is the treatment of SF. The Indo/Sunday Indo have been at it for years but I haven't noticed it that much in the Irish Times. I realise that these are all opinion writers but surely someone from the editorial team signed off on all of these running day after day. It's not exactly subtle.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 4:57pm

On the same topic, the Independent have tweeted this out today:

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1483582477532868615

So they have a big picture of the Sinn Fein TD with a "drugs possession charge" title. Firstly it's not her who's up on the charges, it's her partner, so having her picture is misleading. If you then read the article it turns out he's a sever epileptic who has been self medicating with cannabis for years and was caught with a small amount of that in his possession. So, yes the tweet is technically correct but it's written in such a way that it encompasses everything from the most minor end of the scale (which this is on) to the more extreme end (say if he was caught with crack cocaine or crystal meth).

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 5:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300737#Comment_118300737

Where are SF going to get 50 seats from? There are two constituencies where they could easily lose their seat and that is no fault of the Shinner TD -but a case of they won due to poor vote management of the other party who will be sore that that happened.

It would be very risky to run three candidates in Donegal- they tried that in 2016 and they somehow lost a safe seat due to vote splitting (he later regained his seat in 2020 - huge cock up on their part )

In Roscommon - East Galway, the SF girl got lucky (that is not in any way a criticism on her and her ability). That was a FF seat but idiotically, Martin insisted on parachuting a very unpopular second candidate, who in turn split the FF vote and messed up the sitting FF TD's chances of keeping his seat

Westmeath/ Longford - Total shot out of the blue there, with that particular SF candidate doing so so so well. So well that she needed more than just the Mullingar side of the county. She got absolutely destroyed at the local elections in 2019 and then all of a sudden she tops the General Election pole, despite being a no body at the time. Athlonians are sore that they messed up to a situation where they out voted themselves out of having a TD from Athlone (even if that guy deserved to lose his seat) . Longford managed to do that a few times, but they won't allow that to happen again so things will be tight for the remaining seat that will go to a Mullingar areas based person. FG tend to return at least 1 person. Likewise FF. It was one of the few counties back in 2009 that bucked the national trend during the local elections where FF were getting destroyed around the country, That SF TD who topped the polls at the 2020 GE spectacularly lost her LOCAL ELECTION SEAT in 2019 , so Westmeath is not safe for SF, yet. Is she likely to get re-elected ? Depends on the quality of the personnel on offer .

SF topping Dublin Bay NOrth was not expected either - seat win, maybe, but not the quota she got - Still might be a tad risky to run another SF candidate there in case of vote splitting.

I do not think anyone could have predicted that a SF would win a seat in the same Constituency as Michael Martin, Simon Coveney and McGrath. All three being high profile men. Yet the lad actually topped the poll. Granted Martin is a blank and Coveney might have dirted his bib.......but was that SF success a flash in the pan ? I though SF Cork were a bit screwed with Johnathan O'Brien left politics

Arguably, Mary Lou could risk running a running mate , like Bertie in 2006ish. Her personal vote might take a small hit, but she will likely romp home over the quota by the first count and thus give her running mate a shot of getting the extra seat. Still a competitive Constituency . Would be a bit surprised if Pascal O'Donoghue lost his seat

Dublin 8 Constituency is probably the only safer spot outside the border counties where maybe a Shinner could win a second seat as there guy has a long history of comfortably getting elected within 3 counts, so could have a pretty good first preference. The People before Progress and socialists waun are busted flushes.

It is not in the interest of Labour to work with SF. They are rivals, enemies even. Labour will gain nothing from it and Social Democrats won't dance with SF if Labour do and they are lightweight without the two main leaders (Gannon needs to grow a pair - he is good, but stick to things that matter)

Greens will finally be taken out of shot once and for all

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 6:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501050#Comment_118501050

Where are SF going to get 50 seats from?

I posted this earlier in this thread:

In the 2020 election Sinn Fein won 37 seats with 24.5% of the vote. However that doesn't tell the full story. They famously underestimated their own performance and did not run enough candidates. Going through the constituencies there were many where they got at least 1.5 Quotas in but had nobody to transfer them to. There's no guarantee that any of those people would have been elected especially give SF's infamous transfer issues. However, they had 7 seats where their share of the vote was so high that there is no question that they'd have won the seat:

Dublin South-Central : 1.97 Quotas

Waterford : 1.91 Quotas

Dublin Bay North : 1.79 Quotas

Dublin South-West : 1.78 Quotas

Dublin North-West : 1.78 Quotas

Dublin Central : 1.78 Quotas

Donegal : 2.71 Quotas (they ran 2 candidates)

So you can add 7 to the 37 that they actually won which gets you to 44 seats off the back of that 24.5% vote share. If they get 30% or even 35%, well then their number of seats will be significantly higher (well above 50)

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 6:03pm

@Brussels Sprout

"Thinking about this again, I'm not sure where that poster got that 45 seat figure from but it's a farcically inaccurate estimation.

In the 2020 election Sinn Fein won 37 seats with 24.5% of the vote. However that doesn't tell the full story. They famously underestimated their own performance and did not run enough candidates. Going through the constituencies there were many where they got at least 1.5 Quotas in but had nobody to transfer them to. There's no guarantee that any of those people would have been elected especially give SF's infamous transfer issues. However, they had 7 seats where their share of the vote was so high that there is no question that they'd have won the seat:

Dublin South-Central : 1.97 Quotas
Waterford : 1.91 Quotas
Dublin Bay North : 1.79 Quotas
Dublin South-West : 1.78 Quotas
Dublin North-West : 1.78 Quotas
Dublin Central : 1.78 Quotas
Donegal : 2.71 Quotas (they ran 2 candidates)

So you can add 7 to the 37 that they actually won which gets you to 44 seats off the back of that 24.5% vote share. If they get 30% or even 35%, well then their number of seats will be significantly higher."

They ran 3 candidates in Donegal in 2016 (bear in mind they had a successful 2014 local election) and they bloody managed to lose one of their two seats - they lost a seat (McLoughlin) that was SAFE !!! A popular guy. That is because the third guy ate into some of his first preference. That is why they only went 2 in 2020, and comfortably regained McLoughlin's seat (First Count) . After the 2019 Local disaster for SF, Nationally, and the huge bad publicity SF had with ex councilors and bullying etc ........running just 2 was a smart move. Also take into account Pringle is ex SF so he would enjoy votes and no 2.3 and 4 preferences from SF people. He (Pringle) scrapped in in 2020 but running 3 is risky. Donegal tend to always return a FF or FG man. Is McHugh (FG) still popular up there ? A lot will depend on who would run in Donegal - Beasts like Cope Gallagher (who got smashed) are probably gone for good but............

Waterford? Maybe they could run another SF guy and hope Culliane's quota gets the 2nd person in. FF and FG have failed Waterford and SF have 6 in the County COuncil (FF and FG have just one extra,each) Could ye see the Green Party TD keeping his seat ?

Dublin Central - there is nothing to suggest that Mary Lou's popularity is going to go down, so , work doing a Bertie and running a second mate - but who? SF got trounced at the last locals in Dublin CIty (lost 8 seats) Parachuting a Senator or bigger name might threaten Mary Lou in the long run.

Dublin South Central - doable - Would be surprised to see either Joan Collins and that waun, Brid Smith surviving . Catherine Ardagh (ff) might do better next time, she got a much better first preference than both women, but transfers harmed her . But thing is Aengus Ó Snodaigh, while a safe seat, there was absolutely nothing to suggest from his 2016 performance that he would romp home so so so easily in 2020. Collins' vote just caved in , in comparison to 2016. Also, SF did run a second person in 2016 and she only got 7.6 % of the vote. I know that If I was ó'Snodaigh, I would be making every excuse under the sun to justify being the only SF ticket in that constituency in case another SF person ate into his vote. Who is a safe 2nd candidate that won't harm Aengus but is strong enough to score some 1st preferences and ride on O'Snodaigh's surplus ?

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 6:12pm

@BonnieSituation

"They really need to let this message go. It isn't working.

This FG govt brought FF back to power. That's what will do them in. And tbh, given the record since 2017, it would do them no harm to have a natural enough bloodletting and let Varadkar resign without a heave.

SF and SD's will be the big winners at the next election. I don't think that will be that surprising."

Based on their 2019 Local Elections Results, the Soldiers of Destiny were going to return to where they belonged in Dáil Éireann. Mickey was even popular despite doing Sweet FA. That final few months leading up to the Generals, SF were licking their wounds and still dealing with the fall out from the bullying and worse allegations from ex councillors and awkward "up the ra" chants. Martin then just lost his balls and performed badly in the GE

People most certainly do need to be reminded what a shower of spoofers most SF councillors and TDs are.(so bad that they even pretend to have qualifications that they never attained) Not to mention metathetically inept - Note Mary Lou's laughable post count declaration that her party would talk to everyone bar FG and FF despite it been crystal clear that neither Labour and SD wanted to know and none of the Independents were SF inclined. Morto. I recall the Irish Stock Exchange took a dip after that claim of hers.

Whatever about SF doing better, where the hell do you think SD are going to get the extra seats from ? They have no chance of success in most areas outside Dublin. Maybe at a sneeze somewhere like Limerick City or Cork but elsewhere ? Come on .

Some of the SF wins outside the Irish Cities were a bit fluky too with little to no reason or explanation for them and more a case of default on the unpopularity of Labour and FG

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 6:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501265#Comment_118501265

Yes, I noted that you gave more detail in other post. Fair argument . I addressed that too

Underestimate ? You for real? They got destroyed at the local elections (even in Dublin) and they had bad press over their treatment of party members who were leaving left right and center. They acted pragmatically and there was no way they or the country expect the first preference numbers

To go from getting your arse handed to you on a plate in the County Council elections in 2019 to topping the poll in a mainly rural county known to be a bit of bastion for FF and FG down the decades (Westmeath Longford ) (Longford has a Republican past with Republican SF, so I am referring to Westmeath on that )

To be fair to you, the 7 specific areas that you mentioned, are probably their best bet - still think Donegal would be a risk (for reasons already mentioned)

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 6:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501279#Comment_118501279

Based on their 2020 vote they have the numbers for all of those constituencies and they've only increased in popularity since then.

The 2016 incident in Donegal happened because their vote total was far too low for 3 TDs (and on the border for 2 TDs). They only got 1.65 quotas.

Compare that to them getting 2.71 quotas in 2020. On that sort of result they would easily get three TDs and would be absolutely no danger of ending up in the 2016 scenario.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 6:36pm

If you're interested in this topic, @HMcEvansoneya on Twitter has a website where he projects polling numbers onto constituencies:

Based on the recent polling averages he has SF on 63 seats. You can see the breakdown of those numbers here

General Irish politics discussion thread

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