General Irish politics discussion thread

He doesn't properly counter for local personal popularity though - for quite some time he had Howlin losing his seat.

SF will eat at the Indpendents-and-other-Left seat count; but the idea of FFG actually gaining four seats between them while SF gain 26 is implausible. The SocDems holding 5 while SF gain 26 is so far beyond implausible its laughable.

SF high 50s, FF ~30, FG mid 30s; stronger Ind/Lab, lower SD/GP/PBP than that guys predictions. However, I'm not basing that on an apparent model or looking for donations to do so either!

SF could yet go too hard on candidates, run too many and slip a few seats as a result but I wouldn't bet on it.

63, Jaysus, that is a lot.

I'm such whoever does that website knows much more than me, but 63 still seems a lot.

If whatever model he is using is predicting (possiblty) three seats for FG in Mayo and DBS, well sticking a pin in the list of candidates would be more reliable. They'll get one in both constituencies and they'll be satisfied...

Two in DBS will depend on who they run; and a very favourable day at the polls too.

This seems to suggest the model was predicting three FG seats in those constituencies but he is overruling it?

Anyway if the model is even suggesting that is a realistic possibility I don't think we can set much store by it.

Well apparently the most recent prediction of the model was 2FG, 1FF and 1PBP but previously it was saying 3FG and the other one going to RBB. But like you I'd be thinking FF and FG get at most two seats between them there.

Plus Waterford is not historically particularly republican. I'd buy SF being in a with a good chance of three seats in the border five-seaters but Waterford seems out of far leftfield.

Each council can set its own rules for replacing Independents. Most just do the ask the Councillor procedure, DCC even allows Independents to nominate someone in case of their death but it seems Westmeath CC go for open nominations from the floor. Some councils do "countback" where the last eliminated candidate gets it.

Party members are to be replaced by their own party - actually the one they were elected for, should they have changed. Also someone elected as an Independent who joins a party is still considered Independent in this legislation but I'd expect many councils would go to the new party first.

Jamie Moran says he was leaving for work reasons so it might not have been a specific method to get his Dad back in.

I know this one gets wheeled out every few months, but to me it’s quite stark at the moment that there is nobody to the right of Fine Gael economically on the Irish political spectrum. And that’s an increasingly large space as Fine Gael has moved further and further left (or at least populist “left”) to try keep up with Sinn Féin’s populism.

We’re entering into a period of inflation, the likes of which may not have been seen for decades. The Government’s response is to hand people more money, and to increase the amount they’re planning to hand out every time they discuss it. The only opposition to this at parliamentary level is from those who think they should be doing the same, but with larger sums of money.

Now you could make all sorts of arguments about energy not being a discretionary expenditure, global factors etc. But surely there is space for some sort of PDs 2.0 who could at least make the argument for looking at things like scrapping the universal nature of certain social welfare benefits (the new fuel cashback thing, child benefit, etc.) And at the same time altering tax bands to make the system fairer: bringing people into the tax net at a lower point, raising the threshold for the top band, but introducing more bands in between to make it a more gradual progression for middle earners.

Maybe this stuff is too politically toxic for now, Sinn Féin’s brand of populism is where the votes are at for the moment, and any small party coming out with this would be on a kamikaze mission. It just seems to me that there’s a huge amount of groupthink in the Dáil at the moment, and very little choice on offer.

in a way theyre right, but they definitely will struggle when they get into government, central banks are stuck, if they raise rates too soon and by too much, they ll actually cause economic slow down, as we ll start to struggle to service our debts, in particular our private debts, this in turn would also more than likely cause us to save more, as confidence slips under such conditions, its a very tricky situation. its also important to note, most money created in both the public and private domains, has gone towards raising asset prices, and hasnt actually made it into the real economy.....

elements of our current government will also get a chance in the opposition next time around, so theyll be able fire all sorts of accusations at sf, and some will be warranted, so.....