Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I have no idea if it is pre63 but 1973 called and it wants that bathroom back.

Plenty of labor available:

“Eurostat data show that in 2016 in Ireland 11.6 per cent of adults aged 18-59 lived in households where no-one was working”

why work as long as you have shills like richard boyd barrett even considering cost rentals too expensive. Free houses are needed!!!

mind boggling that these people (mick wallace too etc) even get past 5% first preference votes.

the irish middle class needs a proper living standard reset (taxes or sky high inflation) to see these left wing low IQ’ers for what they really are…

Free lunch or not there were record savings recorded in Irish bank accounts there not so long ago. Also people have to live somewhere there is no getting around that and regardless of how netflix are doing or if they increase their price, they have to compete with sky, disney, virgin etc so you can pick and choose to watch or not to watch or choose a competitor. When it comes to having a roof over you head there are not that many options that are cheap if you dont buy your paying out more in rent. There is no way prices of property will be coming down in the next 5 years. Labour shortages, material shortages and both of the prices on these are zooming up just look at the price of Timber then throw in the price of oil.. Add in we are not building enough to sustain the growth in population even if we had no deficit in housing the amount build last year would not of been enough for the new demand coming on that year. So unless there is a mass exodus of our population (may happen it has happened before) or/and the cost of building a property suddenly drops by at least 30/40% (cant see this happening either) and builders decide they dont want to make a profit and just build for the good of their health (more chance of me winning the lotto 5 times in a row) then there will be no reduction in price. I find it funny people take one head line drop in a certain non related industry and equate it to people who have bought in the last 6 months as a sign of an upcoming Armageddon. I mean we just had brexit and we still have covid you cant get any worse when it comes to putting fear into people when it comes to spending.

NFLX is down 20% YTD. Not because of ER. Whole growth sector is down the hole atm. Look at Hubspot which 8x from 2020 march lows and now -50% from ATH.

Peleton was a basket case.

You are looking at specific sector within a sector and not the whole market. For example value companies are doing great.

yeah people will splurge on holidays but not if they are serious about buying a house.

The deposits in the banks are still very high and I can't see much of a correlation or cause and effect from an overvalued stock like Netflix (that now has plenty of competition) and Irish house prices.

I would be more concerned about the Chinese economy slowing that they needed started to cut interest rates the other day, rather than a stock that every retail investor has pilled into for the past 2 years despite the fact that the pandemic has caused other companies to focus on their improving their streaming products/offerings.

There is a solid base of buyers but im not sure there is a solid base of people prepared to bid €50k over an already optimistic asking price due to pure desperation, people have different needs and buying capacities which might bring a bit of sense back to the market and people more prepared to wait for a new build than get into mad bidding wars for 2nd hand properties but long term that is based on the Shinners not getting into power and removing HTB.

Overall I think one good kick to the Irish economy would shake a lot of apples loose from the tree, we have a lot of highly educated immigrants coming for high paying jobs who are prepared to pay high rents for now but no major plans to stay in Ireland long term but still in the property market as they see rent as dead money so one economic shock could see them heading for somewhere like Germany, the UK or working remotely from their home country which could alleviate housing things here a bit but also hit our economic growth.

Same with demographics as those workers get older and think about starting a family, Ireland is a bad place to start one compared to most European countries, one Croatian girl nearly had a heart attack when I told her its approx €1000 a month for childcare here, its around €250 in their capital city Zagreb.

Wow, I wandered over to the Property Pin to see what their opinion was on future price movements in the property market, they've had great analysis in the past and one of the few Irish outlets to warn about 2008 before it happened. I hadnt been there in a couple of years for some reason but looking at it today its completely degenerated into a screaming mentally ill anti-vax mess, Ive never seen a site go off the rails so badly, its worse than Twitter or Facebook now, pure chemtrails and magnets in the vaccines stuff.

Heres a thread the site admin just posted on the main page, this used to be a place that gave better advice than askaboutmoney or boards, wtf happened?:

Anecdotally I have had a number of agents report that since the pandemic begun they have a lot clients who haven't been prepared to go to market as there is nothing for them to trade-up to. Likewise selling up and renting on the sidelines 6-12 months is simply not an option.

Given we are at historically low supply, I suspect once we see properties starting to come to market, seller sentiment may change and motivate homeowners thinking of selling to get to market (driven by fear). If this were to occur and supply began to normalise, this would certainly put pressure on the rate of price growth.

This seems to be the scenario that is playing out in the 2 biggest markets in Australia, Sydney & Melbourne. After months of increasing steady price growth, prices at the end of last year are signalling a slowdown that correspond with improved supply dynamics.

"Imagine wages stayed flat, do prices increase simply because demand is greater than supply?"

Yes. This is close to what happened in last decade.

The commercial property sector has corrected 20% so far. The residential rental sector had a slight correction which has been cancelled out. Why? State intervention with eviction bans preventing tenancies ending, rental assistance payments and RPZs putting a floor on rents, combined with the State action of shutting building sites to stop supply getting ahead of immigration.

I have a friend sale agreed on hi property and sale agreed on the one he is buying.

A couple of weeks ago he was saying he feels like pulling the plug since the value of his house has gone up so much since they went sale agreed.

I told him he better go and check that if the owner of the house he is buying sees this and decides the same he will have to look for another house. Check what the other houses are going for now that would suit you.

He came back and said he cant find any. So hes lucky he didnt do anything to jeopardize the sale.

Some people just cant see in front of their own noses.

I know someone who did that back in 2007 with a house he was selling and all of a sudden 20% was wiped off, so he waited. Eventually 50% was wiped off. he spent the next decade wishing he had just sold it when it was agreed in the first place.