Russia - threadbanned users in OP

While this would be ideal in the long run (for climate change reasons if nothing else) is this practical immediately? I suspect that it is not and hence why the Germans are so reluctant to engage in the same punitive measures of Russia as countries who aren't as reliant on Russian gas (ie USA & UK).

Our governments and those who control them may want to thread carefully because the culmination of the ongoing dispute and various other policies will affect the availability and price of food. For instance a client state of Russia, Belarus produces 20% of the worlds potash. The big 4 nutrients for plant growth are nitrogen, potassium, phosphate, magnesium all used in general fertiliser.

• Strike in Belarus by Potash Miners Pressures President, Clouds Commodity Market

So far there seem to be loopholes in the sanctions that have dented the impact but not the prices which are up

• Belgium Is Pushing to Dilute the EU’s Belarus Potash Sanctions

October 19 2021

• Bark But Little Bite? Sanctions Don't Appear To Put Brakes On Trade Between EU And Belarus

Now look at the issue of nitrogen availability and supply, since the current disruption to fertilizer production and pricing is one hundred per cent policy driven, the past decadal move to random energy has increased the demand for natural gas and it is a key ingredient in fertiliser production during the Haber process.

• Fertiliser in the firing line as Department to focus on reduction to meet emissions targets

January 19, 2022

• Russia will set 6-month quotas for exports of nitrogen fertilisers

• Crunch time for pricey fertilisers squeezing European farmers

• The politics of Dutch farming complicates matters at the Hague

January 23, 2022

The farming protests in the Netherlands due to "Green policies" have been ongoing for a few years with the court system enforcing these policies.

The limits to the ability of the soil to produce the same amount of output as prior to the disruption lasts about one to one and a half years from the end of the disruption and resumed application of fertiliser. The current disruption to fertiliser production and pricing is one hundred per cent policy driven, It is a combination of green energy policy, economic sanctions, and political posturing, we can expect soaring food prices as a result of supply cuts in wealthy countries such as Ireland and we should not be surprised by widespread hunger, even starvation and societal breakdown in some parts of the world. That will potentially last for a couple of years even if we start to reverse course tomorrow. This is one more angle to be considered in the dispute with Russia.

What?

Sure they are reluctant now, but if Russia does something silly, then the reluctance for sanctions will be gone. Russia is also dependent on someone buying their gas.

While nothing may happen it should be, but more than likely won't be, a wake up call of the under funding of the Defense Forces. This is what happens when the Gov are more interested in keeping nurses, teachers etc happy than putting plans to stop things like this from happenenign

I don't think we'd ever be able to "stop" such things from happening (a big power like Russia parking warships inside our EEZ + doing exercises or whatever) and trying in vain to do so would be a waste of money. However as others have said you'd like the military here to be in a state where it could at least monitor all comings and goings in our airspace and also the very large amount of sea we have "responsibility" for (for latter, it would be useful for more practical concerns like fisheries and resource protection, catching drug smugglers etc.).

In fairness to them this is one issue on which Irish politicians' actions (i.e. deliberate neglect and possibly (?) a running down of the military further vs previous decades despite massive increases in wealth of the country) are just a reflection of, and in full accord with Irish voter's beliefs.

They don't care, think Ireland does not need any military other than for sending small numbers to help UN missions and don't really want any money spent on it. Now they might care if some crisis comes along + scream blue murder (at the govt of the day most likely!) at that point, but will be too late then. So I suppose maybe some more leadership of the public on the issue is needed from politicians but I don't think it would be popular and will cost money so I don't blame them all that much.

Still, I think the world does seem to be getting more unstable now (vs 90s/00s/10s). Ireland's neutralty from the outside looking in is somewhat questionable given our ties like EU membership and the relationship with the US and we are no longer an isolated backwater and economic basket case that can rely on it's sheer irrelevance to keep it safe from everything.

Russia has not been encircled by NATO

Irelands border with the UK is only 300km shorter than the NATO border with Russia. Surrounded my arse.

Unfortunately it doesn't stop the same usual suspects repeating it over and over because they subscribed to RT.

Nato countries sending weapons to Ukraine only started after Russian aggression , occupation and the illegal annexation of Crimea.....

But yes Russian soldiers are going to die in their thousands

Alpha Males like Vladimir Putin

Ha. This thread is great at times (edit: I mean unintentionally funny). A motley crew of Irish Stalinist types and maybe the odd right winger spreading pro Russian propaganda + apologetics and fawning over Great Leader Putin and the size of his...army & missiles.

If Russia were to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine it could mean war between Russia and the West.

The situation is dangerous and needs to be resolved quickly.

"wipe out" which Russian soldiers? Genuine question. Are you suggesting Ukraine is likely to use weapons offensively against Russian soldiers within Russia's borders?

When you consider the German response to this crisis, and to a lesser degree the Dutch And Austrian.

The massive global importance of Russian controlled fertilizer. The mess made with Germany deciding to close 60% of its power plants in a decade, helping escalate European dependence on Russian gas to a significant crisis and risk.

The weak state of the European economy, the global economic dangers, the distraction that was COVID.

You'd have to think he might be wrong to do it but mad not to. Take everything east of the Dnieper.

Germany will make sure that the EU sanctions are manageable. S few years and it will be over.

surely the fertilizer thing is more important than just ah well farmers shouldnt use so much. it could be the easiest mode of war old style siege, starve the populations of europe. not as daft as you think food prices have gone up a lot and could rocket. staples particularly bread and milk. ironically for irish farmers it woould result in boom times a bit like Napoleonic Wars era. Ireland , Britain, Denmark, New Zealand, Uruguay, Argentina and some small regions of Austalia, USA and France would only be capable of producing much food without huge fertiliser usage. we may well come to regret the mess the African economies and political situation are in with regard to gloabal food security. Africa is sitting on massive potential in Agricultural production but needs huge amount of infastructure and agri business education along with proper sized farms. anyone one for Colonization mark 2 there? im sure plenty of food corporations already in on the act there.

The Ammo drills about to happen off the South Coast here by the Russians that have led to diplomatic communications with the Russians is all a bit grim…

240 kilometers off our south west coast…

why couldn’t it be done north of Russia in their waters.

There is also a second front co-ordinated to keep the American resources tied down and not concentrating in one theatre.

• Why are China and Russia strengthening ties?
• Crisis In Kazakhstan Pushes China, Russia Closer Together
• In Kazakhstan, Russia’s imperium grows – at China’s expense
• Kazakhstan: Russia-led forces to withdraw; new PM appointed
• Taiwan reports new large-scale Chinese air force incursion
• Taiwan passes extra $8.6bn defence budget as China threat grows

This time last year Russia was testing the Biden administration. The Biden administration blinked. This time round I reckon the objective is secure Kazakhstan which has been slowly drifting from Russian control for a few years. After the recent protests the Kazakhstans administrations fealty to Russia has been re-established. Politically within Russia if anything happens to the Russian populations outside it's borders ("Near Russia"), that becomes politically sensitive for the Kremlin since public sympathy changes.

• Kazakhstan’s alphabet switch reflects wider societal changes

The other interesting recent geopolitical move - Lithuania

• Pawn to G7