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Ireland's defensive frailty exposed by Russian exercise

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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,192 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Everyone knows about the feckin GDP issue, that's why we use MGNI and it still makes us one of the richest countries in the World. That MGNI figure is also a very severe measure that undervalues certain activities and so we are being beyond cautious is using it.

    We're about as far from broke as its far to get. We have debt to MGNI of 105% at end 2021, which if you used the equivalent measure on all EU members would put us about mid-table, *BUT* our economy is in a far more fundamentally strong position than almost any in the EU.

    You'll often hear talk, especially in the Trump years, complaining about NATO members not meeting a 2% GDP defence spending target.

    So for the record Ireland's current defence spending is 0.17% of GDP or 0.36% of MGNI.

    We can do much better without it taking the shoes off of the kiddies feet or taking the social houses or the hospital treatment out from under people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Russia has submarines who's sole task is to attack Cables even at serious depths, even the American were able to access Russian underwater cables for 3 decades before someone leaked it to the Kremlin.

    Undersea cables can be damaged and destroyed



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,141 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Can we not finish that children’s hospital first before we take on those bad Russians?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    They’ve been allegedly sniffing around those cables for months. There were reports is mysterious boats in that area last year. We aren’t even able to properly scan or patrol those areas regularly.

    The cables are vulnerable until they get into very deep ocean and we don’t know what kind of specialist equipment they have. The Russians have always had very high developed submarine and space tech. It’s hardly beyond their capabilities. You’re talking about a country that has successfully landed probes on the surface of Venus. A few fibres off Bantry, defended by what amounts to a badly resourced coast guard by naval standards, is hardly going to be that big a challenge.



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  • Posts: 0 Bobby Shy Swinger


    I think the point being made is that an effort to destroy them would be noticeable and an immediate halt would be placed on the efforts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Not by us though ,by the Time an attack was detected and another EU State reacted the damage would be done ,

    The fact we have significant amount of undersea cables and no way of protecting them is a red flag



  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Seamus Gentle Lava


    You think that Russia or China could park an aircraft carrier 100KM from UK territory and Westminster would just sit and swivel?



  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Staleturnips


    I wonder if people in the rest of Europe are aware of how limped-dick Ireland actually is in terms of its own defence.

    There definitely are tribes in the amazon who could defend their patch of ground better than we can ours.



  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Most of those cables ultimately terminate in the U.K. or France but are used for most of Western Europe, and are multinational, not specifically Irish terminations (other than a small few).

    If there is a risk you can expect an intervention by the British and/or French Navy, in their own interests.

    Our major weakness is a lack of even being able to see what’s going on. We need to invest in radar, even just to keep our civil aviation safer from military stuff flying with no beacons.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    In a broader European conflict, Ireland is a juicy prize. Nice little staging post in the back garden of a cornerstone NATO member.

    The post WW2 peace Europe has mostly enjoyed is a historical abberation. We don't know what's coming in the next 30,40,50 years.

    No one is talking about aircraft carriers or a 50 strong fleet of F35s, but a little bit more attention to defence matters and respect for our defence forces to provide a serious insurance policy for our military neutrality wouldn't go astray.

    Defence spending looks like a luxury until we're in a serious crisis and we'll have no option but to go cap in hand to NATO to join the fray.

    A major security crisis that threatens our way of life on the continent may not happen tomorrow or in 10, 20 years, but the way things stand, we'll always be unprepared for it and be left with only bad options when the day comes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Staleturnips


    What do we offer militarily in the treaty? A catalogue of rebel songs?



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,406 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    If there is ever a nuclear war none of this defense spending talk matters any more cause life as we know it is over.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Most of the cables in that area connect the UK and US. We specifically have no need of a large military presence to protect them, they serve as critical infrastructure for many, many countries, who all have more than enough military capacity to look after it.




  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The point still remains, why are the Russians in that particular spot, right as they are assumed to be about to invade Ukraine and as a war of words flies between them and NATO?



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,406 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What are the militaries of equivalent countries like ? It's not something I'm up to date on.

    But if we do have money floating around i'de rather we put it towards achieving free A&E or upgrading our shocking transport infrastructure



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,406 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    And Ireland being in NATO will be what keeps Putin's hand off the button ?

    If someone actually actually launches their arsenal or all sides do I think it's time we just call it quits as a species.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭rn


    Can you just imagine how excited Jeffery Donaldson and his crew would be, if Russia or China had an invasion force off the west coast of Ireland! Of course they would definitely stop rolling the T72s when the road markings go from yellow to white... So the UK would only send "Strongly worded letters" and implement sanctions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The answer to this post is this:

    Why spend anything on Defence? Just scrap the entire Defence Forces as sure, we are fucked if a big power wants to have their way with us, or there is 0 chance it will ever happen because we can sponge of the UK, EU, US....

    So just get rid of the defences forces altogether... its a waste of money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,192 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    They would to protect their own territories and interests, which we near enough to benefit from.

    In fact that's what we've always relied on, right or wrong.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    The last time Ireland was invaded prior to the end of World War II was 1798 when the French invaded. 220 years without an invasion doesn’t indicate that we have anything to worry about in modern historical terms.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The roles of the Permanent Defence Forces are:

    To defend the State against armed aggression

    To assist the Garda Síochána when requested

    To participate in peacekeeping missions in support of the United Nations

    To contribute to maritime security, including the delivery of a fishery protection service

    To provide ceremonial services on behalf of the Government



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Our defence forces do actually do things internally. They serve a vital role as part of the emergency services, and fill niches that other services don't. To a certain extent the fulfill a role as swiss-army knife (no pun intended), providing backup capacity for other emergency services. Our pandemic response - especially vaccinations - would have been a complete shambles without military support.

    Just because they're not out scaring off foreign invaders, doesn't mean they don't provide value.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    That's grand so. Our economic , sovereign interests and our military neutrality are well protected in the case of a European conflict conflagration then.

    Apropos of nothing, I've never crashed my car, my insurance is up for renewal - don't think I'll bother this time.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    yeah let's spend the money it would require to make an actual difference to any outcome in the event of a Russian decision to invade

    *checks bill*

    *reaches for russian dictionary, furry cap with hammer and sickle motif and bottle of vodka*



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,415 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    How much more in taxes are you willing to pay for "Defence spending"?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Well, you've got two options. You can pay €500 a year for 3rd party fire and theft. Or you can pay €3,500 a year for the same insurance except it covers other people driving your car so they don't have to buy their own.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    Passive aggressive rants? This is your idea of debate? Stick to Pokemon cards, mate, the grown ups are talking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    ?

    Do one.

    You don't like my replies, respond to the substance of them. Mate.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,375 ✭✭✭Boulevardier


    An important consideration is that the US already has a de-facto Air base at Shannon, so we can hardly blame the Russians if they consider us as part of the "Western" bloc.

    Why not lets ban all foreign military use of our airports and then extend that to our airspace?



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