Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

If I was practically mortgage free and late 50s/early 60s I'd have the house sold and be off abroad with an early retirement - not to Athens mind you, somewhere a bit more West like Spain, Portugal or Italy. It could not be a better time to take advantage of the current situation and retire early if you were in this enviable position.

Hillaroius stuff

One bubble blower calling out another bubble blower in a video riddled with amazon get rich quick scams

Mother of God!

Wood, like Musk, is a symptom of the euphoria in the markets the past few years where people buy into personalities more than anything else (people seem to think Musk is like some sort of Tony Stark character which would appear to explain his success in recent years with the movie franchise involving Tony Stark). In bubbles you get a lot of fraud and a lot of risk - Wood is an example of fraud I would say where she tries to nourish this almighty status but in reality she just invests in everything to do with tech and innovation; and just rode the Tesla wave with her investments. However, the last twelve months has seen a huge selloff among the rich and a conversion to cash, this should tell us something when the rich are the ones that are net sellers the past year.

So based on your anecdotal experience, my anecdotal observation is not correct? That doesn't make sense. We have differing opinions based on similar anecdotal experiences I think is more accurate.

How do you know that the rich were net sellers the past year and have converted to cash?

Any wealthy investor will have a balanced portfolio and won't be holding a large portion in cash especially during an inflationary period where cash looses value.

Top man, thank you.

The demand is being pumped by the State; supporting 1/3 of all rentals and putting a floor on rents by doing this (including by implementing RPZs and kicking out small landlords from the market). Rents at current levels put more and more people every day into the bracket of needing support; do you think that the net can perpetually widen? If so, I'd very much like to drink from that coolade as it is essentially a "there's a magic money tree" attitude where the State can happily borrow (yes, borrow) to pay into housing market supports. There is nothing sustainable about the situation unless you think the State can keep increasing its spend on housing by increasing its borrowing.

Sorry but this is our bleeding heart lefties pushing that agenda and now we have a certain cohort who now feel they are entitled to this. We have a history of giving monies to certain groups that are so hard to take away. Both what we pay for our welfare and public sector are shining examples of this. The funny thing is people believe the shinners will sort the housing crisis and they are more left leaning than any party that are currently in government currently. So the heads are still there that need housing and we still have not got enough houses., people who have been given supplements for housing or free housing will not have it taken away. Imagine the negative headlines of any government party taking HAP or FTB or any other support deemed necessary for those who cant afford to get on the ladder. (I think it should all go by the way just cant see it happening). Also a lot of these reliefs and options have been part of the narrative in this country for decades. So how do you go about taking that away? You throw in the rising of both building related labour and building costs not to mention a shortage of both. Also we are out of lockdown supports such as PUP will IMO be ending within the next 6 months (i could be wrong if another corona wave hits) so what they are paying out will come down.

So lets see people on here who have tried to come up with a narrative of prices coming down have put down the following

Evergrande collapse.

Interest rate hikes.

inflation vs Low wage inflation.

How can the gov support 1/3rd of rents.

While some of this may lead into what the cost of a house is in this country, IMO the following trends would suggest to me prices will not be coming down but increasing for the next 3/5 years.

Shortage of building laborers/building materials

increase in costs for both building labor/building materials

Increase of approx 1/2 a million people over the last decade

Feck all building of housing over the last decade

No way of forcing people to for rent themselves when they are used to the state paying for them

State have very limited financing to help build due to its current debt and deficit.

Reduction in time from 8 years to 4 months for undocumented non nationals to be able to work here - This will bring a lot of people to our shores.

The globalization of property meaning billy and mary are competing with companies and other people from other countries.

Vulture funds/REITS buying up more property and the small landlord leaving due to the punitive nature of being a small landlord. The Vultures will have the power to keep rents high.

So that is why I have made my prediction another 3 years of price rises at the very least

Good Question... maybe a mod can move it

I did exit the market a few years ago, because I felt the fundamentals were very poor, so I guess I'm a doom monger!

Anyway, the fundamentals are still pretty weak I think, but it might take a couple more years to filter through. With the type of immigration regulations and economy we have it's going to be very difficult to ever have a stable housing market I feel. Construction is pretty hectic at the moment so I'd hope some of the pressure is taken out of the market in a year or two, but it might not happen, prices could get even higher.

They are still up $575b since the start off the pandemic.

House prices will go up a lot more before they come down.Its the very most basic rule of economics,supply and demand.

Supply cannot catch up with demand in the medium to long term,I can't see any scenario where it does.