Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

I think the change will begin in February. If things turn unsettled around the end of January which the models are currently hinting at, we will have to wait and see if this is yet another 1 to 2 week stint of mild Atlantic westerlies before the high pressure sets back up over us or will this be a longer term return to unsettled. February is still up for grabs but I've a feeling it will be a mostly mild month, perhaps milder than January or December especially if we start getting regular south-westerlies. If the high is going to go anywhere it will be to our south or south-east, I don't see any Scandi or Greenland highs happening any time soon.

The one thing that is certain is that there will be barely any rainfall between now and February with many areas perhaps staying completely dry.

But I think we will quickly start to turn more unsettled around February, the PV which is actually fairly strong right now is set to strengthen even further over the next 10 days and this will help drive the westerlies more.

Dull overcast day here in Kerry for the most part apart from a few short lived breaks in the cloud, feeling cool just getting up around 8C and 7.7C now. Very little range in the temperature today, has that stuck feeling now for a number of days! Working a bit around the garden and the garage today and needed to be well wrapped up, just 8.5C in the garage. Looks like very little rainfall for the coming week, a weak enough front on Weds perhaps and getting a bit breezy in the Northern half of the country more so along the coasts, looks like similar temperatures for the next few days if a little bit cooler, maybe a bit milder next weekend from the SW but that could bring rain with it. A touch of frost in a few places, Tues Morning, Weds Morning and maybe Fri morning.

All so pedestrian.

Yawn.

Next week's cold plunge into Europe may have to be watched between January 30th and February 1st. Nearly half of the GFS 12z members are showing cold and possibly snow for Ireland during this period. The other runs keep the plunge more towards eastern UK and east of there and we miss out narrowly and left high and dry. Yesterday the majority of the GFS model had no interest in bringing any of this to Ireland but this has definitely increased today even if the GFS operational isn't having any of it being a mild outlier. If this does happen expect this cold plunge to be sharp but very brief, maybe 12 to 24 hours at the very most, but knowing our luck this winter this will just brush past us.

We will be lucky if we even get those 12 to 24 hours. The Joke is on us as we are now entering the final 4 weeks of winter without a sniff of winter or even weather. This is the most boring and non eventful winter I have ever experienced. Winter 2019/2020 was another winter that never happened but at least there was weather at the time.

Even this high pressure is unpleasant in that it's just gloomy mirk all the way through, hasn't been sun in a week, hasn't been frost in over a week. It's far too mild for any frost but the slate grey cloud keeps the daytime feeling cooler than it should be. I just want this winter to go away now.