Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Going to be an interesting few months for US stocks in particular. Cancel those avc's better price point at the end of year I suspect.

Will be interesting in how it spills over into property

I came across an Interesting paper on housing supply Elasticity in Ireland this morning whilst looking at the Central banks Quarterly bulletin

The most interesting part was that for housing supply coming on stream to increase by 50% prices would need to rise 24% or costs would need to drop by 40%

The boom is back

And more importantly I see Microsoft beats on earnings and revenue with upbeat guidance. (Irelands economy is built on US MN companies)

Two things to show up the CBI in it's quarterly bulletin;

1. The inflation blame game ignores QE/public spending and low interest rates. That's like writing about the causes of climate change and ignoring the burning of fossil fuels.

2. The CBI seem to think the economy can generate 167000 jobs in the next three years. While not all of those will be taken on by new arrivals into the country, I think our housing crisis would put a question mark beside this estimate. As it stands there are 1600 rentals in the entire country available and that covers everything. This housing crisis will act as a ball and chain around economic growth unless we can get 35,000+ new homes per year out there into the market.

That is stupid advice. With an AVC you are getting tax relief. You could lose a years investment tax relief. WL the stock exchange fall 40%. As well an employer may be matching your investment

It one thing to advise moving more of the fund to cash or to lower risk and investment but advising cancelling an AVC shows how much you understand investment.

So the tax benefit of an AVC is 40% at the higher rate. Employers often match or even got 1.5tomrz contribution. An employee might be putting 60 net of tax , revenue are contributing 40euro. If an employer is contributing it's another 100-150 euro.

If you switch to cash or low investment a pension fund cannot risk that money. You have not got a clue about pension/investment and your advice is idiotic

I would cancel now and load up for the end of the year. Also take a look at your pension plan I was a bit shocked at how exposed they are to the USA. Time to diversify

They've also backed off non renewable energy stocks since October due to environmental policies. Since then energy has boomed

while renewable is in a bubble ready to pop

Pension funds are charged for holding cash. Revenue will do it for free.

According to SF alternative budget their answer to the issue is to increase tax on REITS so they are paying as much as landlords. Don't see how that addresses small landlords leaving the market.

To bet against the market you need to short the stock which involves borrowing it at x price, selling on the market for x (which is more or less cash neutral) and then hoping to buy at a cheaper price in the future to return the stock to individual that you borrowed from and that way turn a profit. My point is that you don't need cash to bet against the market, you just need it if your bet goes sideways or if you need to post a margin call due to your bet not looking like it was working.

Does that mean a fixed tax on rental income or just raising the tax on REITS to match private LL. A fixed rate does sound fair however how will they justify taxing renters and not putting a similar tax on homeowners

Thanks for the correction, I'm glad I did not fully understand that

My reading of it is that they plan to just raise REIT's tax's to match private LL. The devil is in the detail with SF policy as the soundbites normally don't match up with the detail. SF are not alone in this all political parties use smoke and mirrors.

I read recently that if inflation was calculated the same way as it was in the late 80/90's it would be 15% in the USA. Frightening.