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Timeless watch channel

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  • Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭nj27


    Seems like he's always locked. What age is he? I'm guessing well into the age range when that kind of thing starts catching up with you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    No I never go to casinos, they have no attraction to me. And of course it would be wise to check the minimum and maximum stake of the table before you begin 😂


    Doesn't detract from the simple maths though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,942 ✭✭✭893bet


    Yes the simple maths. You would always win if there were not a table min and maximum bet.


    But there always is a min and max bet so the “simple maths” situation you describe only exists in the fictitious casino in your head that has no max/min bet.

    Hope you win loads in that fictitious casino. Don’t give up the day job anyway yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Interestingly, a quick google shows a typical Las Vegas casino uses a max bet 1000 times the min bet, so my figures above fall perfectly fine into this band although 100 might be a tad high, 25 certainly works (and then you stand to lose a max of about 12.5k)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I've yet to meet a gambler who didn't have a 'system', or weren't incredibly superstitious believing in woo, and often both. IIRC when actual mathematicians tried to win in casions they targetted both roulette and blackjack, but in both cases cheated. They didn't use any 'system'.

    Oisin is your standard well oiled fragile ego spoofer, which can work fine in company who are not the sharpest, or are too polite to say anything, but that doesn't fly on the interwebs too well. He's laid bare too easily in his spoofing.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,679 ✭✭✭scwazrh



    but that doesn't fly on the interwebs too well. He's laid bare too easily in his spoofing.

    he seems to have plenty of fan boys commenting on YouTube or Instagram.The only place I’ve seen negative comments about him is here .



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,942 ✭✭✭893bet


    And the most you will win is your initial bet of 25 quid. Seems like a good strategy being willing to lose the 12.5k to win that 25 quid.


    Not much point arguing with someone who is using Google as their point of reference and has never been in a casino basically.


    Martingale systems do not work medium to long term. Small wins (maybe many of them) will be wiped by a big loss.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Like I said, I've no interest in gambling or casinos. But if there were one where there was no maximum bet and I had access to unlimited funds, I would ALWAYS win ;-)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,924 ✭✭✭C0N0R


    I remember when I discovered the Martingale system and gleefully went to take down sky city casino in Auckland. I ran out of balls/funds on roulette. Who would think black would keep coming up instead of red.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,942 ✭✭✭893bet


    What watch did you buy then after the big win to celebrate?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Fitz II


    Martingale is a classic example example of the difference between statistics and game theory.

    That you see nothing but fawning comments shows what a echo chamber that corner of the internet is.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The watch youtubers are an interesting bunch. The hobby/interest seems to be still quite niche a thing. Compare it to motoring channels. Are there any watch youtube channels with a million subs? I think watchfinder is about the biggest with 700k. Teddy Balds..(can't be arsed googling) is around 400K I think. Jenni Elle around 200k. Hodinkee, the watch outlet which drove much of the increasing popularity in the last decade is around 300k. Other than a certain Northern Irish dealership that grew subs suspiciously quickly... most watch channels are slow burners, with the strange exception of watchmaking channels which get consistently get large viewing numbers and have grown quickly in the last two years or so. I suspect they are a draw for the generally interested/find it relaxing to watch types rather than the "here's my latest Patek unboxing" types. Instagram seems like a better fit than youtube for the here's my latest wrist shot stuff, though I'm not on it so can't really comment.

    Timeless/Oisin is 50k IIRC? And fair enough. He grew it organically rather than engaging Chinese sub/thanks farms. His stuff is not in my wheelhouse interest wise(vintage stuff on the Tube is more niche than clog carving), but I did watch him and found him grand and got some insight into the current new watch market. The Venetian backdrop, his videography and good production values helped. The scary level of schoolboy twattery with the French dollybird put me off him. That and the bombastic ads for overpriced fashion watches that would fail on kickstarter. The last one in particular had me click the unsubscribe button. If you're selling tat and use actual footage of men and women dying to do it you're a Grade A twat[Ref.No. 8008. In white gold] IMHO. The bit where he reckoned he was on deaths door after catching the Woo flu(after manhugging other coked up eejits at a watch fair unvaccinated) and getting over it in three days... tbh Attention whore sprang to mind.

    From what I've gathered reading his comments most seem to be from the US, where bombast and aspirational gets more clicks. Either young guys thinking he's living the dream or middle aged guys hoping he was. Nico gets the young crowd because he says fcuk a lot and rattles out telephone number 'values' and 'expert' opinions on watches you'd often think twice about if you got them in a funfair lucky bag in shouty reaction vids(which tbh reinforced my existing prejudical image of ardent Rolex fans). Jenni Elle gets the "ah she's cute" crowd. Watchfinder and Teddy Thingie are broader in appeal I suppose. Slick dealer stuff.

    But as has been said before, the subject doesn't lend itself too well to Youtube, or not for long as the current trends are narrow(they always are, just the names change). If you post a Rolex/PP/AP vid you're going to get the clicks, anything else and you're not. To sustain interest you need more and again to be fair to Oisin he has tried to do that with the drink and cigars, travelog, his backstory and wider subjects on livestreams. It's also a more solitary hobby. In the car world it's more 'social' where you usually have a two or more guys helping rebuild or customise a whatever, going to big meets etc and the trends are much wider and still get clicks. Yes you have the supercar flexers who only know how to sign a loan agreement and mash the loud pedal in a straight line(Richard Mille buyers), but you also have the deeper more informative Jay Leno's Garage/Late Brake show type channels, or the Mightcarmods lads rebuilding five grand Japanese K cars, with extra turbos, who have over three and a half million subs.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Though on the subject of watch youtubeers. I saw this a while back taking the mickey out of watchfinder.


    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!



    Or if I won the lotto - which I don't play either? If you think of it the lotto is the opposite of the above system but with way worse odds 😂


    I don't think I would buy a watch if I'm honest. I had some lofty aspirations late last year to get myself a Royal Oak Offshore, but I've come back down to planet earth. The Cameron is the watch for me. I've had it since 2020 and wear it 24/7. I bet that surprised a few of the regulars in here. It sure surprised me.

    I'd get a Porsche Taycan GTS Sport Turismo though. And a Tesla Model S Plaid with FSD.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,942 ✭✭✭893bet


    We should revive the 5 watches for 100k game (might need to increase budgets).



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,281 ✭✭✭✭Cienciano




  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭redzerredzer





  • Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Fitz II


    Finally he does his new AP and its a beauty. Like his enthusiasm too. Defo a return to form, just going to ignore all the live streaming stuff



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,942 ✭✭✭893bet


    Some of the footage of the AP was very well done.


    I really like AP design. After watching the video went searching. Not a bit of value to be had. Had my chance last year when I was looking at 15450 for 21-24k. 40k is the run of it now for them.


    That’s said they are far far to bling for me really.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Did you try one on? I didn't find it particularly bling. High end for sure, a big step up from Rolex, but you are used to that. Got interested in buying one a few months ago, came close to doing so (an offshore that is), but several things put me off. Love the bracelet (not standard on the offshore) but only micro adjusting. And I was told by several people that they look sturdy but are far more delicate than Rolex steel sports. Both of those things permanently put me off. And I have kinda stopped looking around / the desire to move onwards and upwards is pretty much gone. Also like the VC overseas current models, but more for the looks and the class, not so much as a daily



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,679 ✭✭✭scwazrh


    And I was told by several people that they look sturdy but are far more delicate than Rolex steel sports

    Ive heard the same which puts me off. I don’t think that class of watch is a daily wearer in the real world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,942 ✭✭✭893bet


    Had a few on, but not a lot. Too many facets on the bracelet. Catches the light from every angle. Looks amazing. But prefer more discrete look.


    I would say and Ap or VC be grand as a daily wearer for 99 percent of people. Probably a little more delicate than a sports Rolex. But as long as you are semi sensible.


    Either way the train on anything nice from AP has long since departed and I ain’t chasing it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    They're a "dress watch" really. The sports tag was/is more a style thing because they came as a shock in steel at that price. A category of their own really. Same for the later Patek and others. Not too long after they first came out AP started offering them in two tone and solid gold which were the better sellers, which was more their real market back then.

    Plus people have gotten far more used to rugged timepieces that can take a bashing. The rise of the toolwatch into the dress/luxury end of things was a big influence and quartz too. The vast majority of buyers of luxury watches today weren't around when all you could have was mechanical, either dress or tool watch and the former couldn't take much by way of abuse. Quartz is rugged and that's naturally and quite rightly framed people's expectations.

    Lovely watch though. Current fashionability aside I love the styling, the Patek bandwagon version not so much.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I would say and Ap or VC be grand as a daily wearer for 99 percent of people. Probably a little more delicate than a sports Rolex. But as long as you are semi sensible.

    True enough, though I've noticed down the years people can vary with how hard they are on a watch and it doesn't seem to equate that much with the job or pastimes they do. With some friends of mine any watch will look beaten up after a year of wear, others could be passed off as NOS. I'd reckon half of my mechanicals have no shock protection and are as waterproof as a teabag, but they haven't aged any more in my care. On the other hand an ex of mine who was so delicate looking a stiff breeze would be a worry could kill a watch in double quick time. i was replacing the quartz movement in her small "ladies watch" for the second time and as a loaner gave her my Stocker and Yale US army issued field watch. Three days in and it had stopped and the crown fell off. 😮😂

    The other thing about dress versus tool watches is how they wear the wear so to speak. A roughed up old Sub can look like a well worn fave pair of quality denim and cool with it, a roughed up Patek, unless it has a passed down from grandfather type story just tends to look roughed up.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,043 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    to be fair any watch with a stainless steel bezel (and relatively fine finishing) would be more delicate than say a submariner, but i wouldnt say an AP is more delicate than an explorer 2 or milgauss personally. And certainly not the ROO diver i had! that was a tank.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    @Cyrus "And certainly not the ROO diver i had! that was a tank."


    Damn you. Now you have instilled a want for that watch in me again 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,043 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,679 ✭✭✭scwazrh


    I don’t know what ROO this is but it’s stunning




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Fitz II


    Most AP is only 50m water resistant.....somehow that puts me off even though its more than enough for 99.9% of people. I dont even wear mine in the shower, but I will wear my Subs digging the garden. Problem I have it that a lot of the RO are ultra thin movements to keep the thickness down. Piguet movement in mine. The ROO is modular so more shock resistant at the expense of thickness, bigger bridges etc. Question is how robust is robust enough for you?


    I certainly use my AP as a more dress watch, and the values now do give me pause wearing it for a "night out with the boys" still as Cyrus says and non-leather strap stainless watch will take aduse and unkle with your JC you have options. The choo choo train is leaving the station on AP if its not already left, so if you are going to ride yesterday is the best day book your ticket.


    My AP basically ruined watches for me, for my tastes nothing else I have had came close to having all the things I want in a watch. Every time I take it out for a wear I think "**** me" thats gorgeous. No Rolex ever does that for me...except a platinum day date I held once for 5 minutes.


    Schwartz "I don’t know what ROO this is but it’s stunning" There are a lot of ROO variations, almost too many. Its almost like a subsection of watches in itself, you could easily collect nothing but offshores. I like them a lot, and like the bright ones, but I struggle with the thickness. Unkle would have no such issue and on this forum he is the perfect ROO owner.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Paul Thorpe has his shouty orange one for sale. I must resist 😁



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