Report claims Defence Forces Admit ”They Cannot Meaningfully Defend Ireland”

markodaly · 31-01-2022 1:40am

The UK have a nuclear deterrent which is Trident, which is hugely expensive. Ireland wont and does not need that.

Apples and Oranges.

Yurt2 · 31-01-2022 1:46am

We have about a 10'000 headcount in our defence forces or thereabouts.

If we're honest, there's very little we can do about an invasion via conventional means if it ever came to it, we would be relying on outside assistance to repel (again, let's be honest, we're talking about NATO here) so a lot of that standing army is redundant. It's very early to mid 20th-century that presupposes we need a defence force to fight a conventional threat.

What are the threats we realistically face short of a conventional force invasion:

Cyber threats
Terrorism
Possible hostile naval incursion / maritime nuisance making from an outside power
Airspace incursion and nuisance making from an outside hostile country
Political interference, economic and political espionage and coercion

Suggestions (from military layperson): Reduce the size of the 10'000 headcount, many of which are people polishing their boots and cleaning their weapons for a conventional threat we can't defend against anyway and roll the savings into the following (as well as extra funding as required):

Radically increase our cyber defence capacity
Treble or quadruple the size of the ARW for terrorist response and crisis response protecting Irish nationals overseas if it arises
Resource our naval forces
Lease interceptors for our airspace (I dunno what's realistic here, maybe 4 or 6 based out of Shannon Airport)
Heavy lift aircraft (1 or maybe 2 will do the job here you'd imagine)
A proper modestly resourced civilian intelligence agency

Gatling · 31-01-2022 1:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557566#Comment_118557566

Along with aircraft carriers and f35 jets ,

Capt'n Midnight · 31-01-2022 1:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557472#Comment_118557472

Czechoslovakia, Poland, Estonia, Belgium, Holland, Iran, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Monaco, San Marino. Yugoslavia, Albania, Greece.

Should we include Mongolia being invaded by the Japanese in 1937 ? Asia was at war before, during and after WWII lines very blurred.

Fishery protection vessels used to be self financing because of the fines.

We should probably buy a few high altitude drones so we could send them above the weather over the Atlantic in winter.

markodaly · 31-01-2022 1:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557584#Comment_118557584

Maybe some sonar and radar capability as well, as we have none.

To be honest, your list is not all that much, but looks a lot because we are almost starting at zero.

31-01-2022 2:03am

Well this is a great shock ......

To absolutely no one.

growleaves · 31-01-2022 2:08am

'Diplomacy is our best defence anyway.'

Yeah and laughter is the best medicine so we don't need any penicillin.

Strumms · 31-01-2022 3:21am

Considering that most modern invasions started with attacks from the air…

the Aer corps have not a single aircraft with which to defend us…no attack aircraft in its fleet.

wotzgoingon · 31-01-2022 3:35am

This is ridiculous what the hell would Russia want to attack us for?

Just because they decide to do a military drill in our waters a decent bit away from the island everyone is up in arms. Anyone read about the Donegal fishermen who are every so often sent back to shore by UK doing the same and according to the fishermen it happens pretty often and they are never told about it unlike the how the Russians made it clear they are doing testing. They just get radio messages from the ships when they are near the UK war ships.

Yurt2 · 31-01-2022 3:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557725#Comment_118557725

The article and comments from the DF is about the Commission on the Future of the Defence Forces report which has been in the making for two years or so. It is not about Russia.

The UK have never done live-fire exercises in Irish Waters or the Irish EEZ btw. The Russian exercises are live-fire.

31-01-2022 5:43am

It will criticise the internalising of grievances, a masculine culture, a lack of appreciation for diversity, and a resistance to females which is grounded in what it will describe as outdated social concepts. It will call for mandatory gender, diversity and unconscious bias training and recommend that the Defence Forces should aim to achieve 35pc female participation by 2025 — five times the current rate.

Was it written by a military expert or a blue-haired Women's Studies major?

Pauliedragon · 31-01-2022 7:58am

The fishermen took on the Russians and won so we have them to look after the waters. As for monitoring our airspace the UK keeps an eye on it anyway so we'll be well warned if any unwelcome aircraft head our way. I wouldn't be too worried about an invasion as to take on an EU country u would be taking on the whole of the EU.

kravmaga · 31-01-2022 8:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557421#Comment_118557421

I dont blame him on leaving, heard the pay is terrible, morale is low, only 1 ship on patrol due to staff shortages in the Navy.

Same in the Air corps, not sure what they do all day, one or two helicopters and some turbo prop pp9;s. Its embarrassing.

No military radar in Ireland and we have to ask RAF to assist when Russian Bear TU-95 are flying off our west and north coast.

31-01-2022 8:25am

Out of curiosity, genuine q: With satellites getting cheaper to build and launch, would it not make sense to launch a few to support our surveillance capabilities? Or are the amounts of money involved still too high?

BattleCorp1 · 31-01-2022 9:40am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557323#Comment_118557323

Guerilla warfare requires weapons. And given that the Gardai, the Government and the Media are doing their best to take firearms out of the hands of ordinary citizens (farmers/hunters/target shooters etc.), it'd be a fairly poorly equipped mass resistance movement.

In addition, many gun licences only have a limit of 100 rounds so you wouldn't be long running out of bullets/cartridges either.

Podge_irl · 31-01-2022 10:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557535#Comment_118557535

If a "World War" breaks out, the Russians would have some difficulty getting off our Atlantic coast in the first place, and were they able to we would never be in a position to stop them so its a somewhat pointless target to aim for.

The Irish DF will never be in a position to actually defend the country from incursion/invasion by a determined attacker. The question is whether they are fit for purpose for what they are aiming to do and the answer to that seems to be no.

timmyntc · 31-01-2022 11:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558256#Comment_118558256

Defence capabilities != ability to successfully repel any potential invasion

It's about having enough of a defence capability to act as deterrent - if the losses they would incur would make it not worth doing even if they won, then you have a good defence capability. Currently any potential aggressor could walk the country with little to no resistance, a joke

Podge_irl · 31-01-2022 11:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558356#Comment_118558356

I agree. But then talking about potential Russian invasions is utterly stupid. Talking about any invasion is stupid - we will get far better value from any investment by focusing on our foreign services and diplomacy than our military.

This is not to rule out a requirement for e.g. interceptors, heavy lift aircraft or better cyber defence. But we will never be in a position to be anything but a speedbump to anyone with the capability and desire to invade Ireland. Even the Swiss national defence is based on the assumption that they would lose 50% of the country almost immediately and just resort to being a pain in the ass from up in the Alps.

Gusser09 · 31-01-2022 11:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557550#Comment_118557550

why do we need any of that?

Disband it at this stage.

timmyntc · 31-01-2022 11:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558380#Comment_118558380

The point of defence forces is not and never has been "value for money"

Sure in an ideal world nobody would ever fight with anyone, and we could all do away with standing armies - this is not an ideal world.

The Swiss national defence is based on the idea that they would destroy so much of the strategic infrastructure in the country so as to make invasion nearly pointless. They have plans to distribute weapons to most of the population in the event of an invasion - so it would turn into a long drawn out affair, which is more than enough to deter anyone from invading them. That's why they are well respected as an actual neutral country, not like Irish pseudo-neutrality

CreadanLady · 31-01-2022 11:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557323#Comment_118557323

We could have done that in the 1920s. Nowadays, not a hope. We are gone too soft. in 2020s we are a nation of soft arses, snowflakes and pure and utter me-feiners. Everyone would be ducking out in any way they could think of and coming up with inventive excuses to circumvent having to get involved.

I wonder how many of the usual big talking wannabe Rambo swaggerers in these Irish defence forces themed threads would actually put their money where their mouths are and take up arms, or would they just stick with skulking in their mothers house at 40 years of age spouting their militaristic tough guy drivel about how many fighter jets we should have.

CreadanLady · 31-01-2022 11:42am

[quote] One heavy lift transporter is about 20 million for example. [/quote]

And 99% of the time it'll be idle doing nothing, soaking up money in maintenance and certification so as to stay air worthy.

For how often the PDFs need a heavy air transport capability, they can just hire cargo plane from any cargo airline to move whatever it is from A to B. Gets the job done and at a tiny fraction of the cost, no need to the hassle of keeping dust off of a never used € 20m worth of plane and a few air corp pilots largely sitting on their holes for 10 years in Casement waiting for the one day in their careers that they might be asked to move something for a purpose.

Can any of the armchair air mashalls on here not see how wasteful that is?

Again, it is clear none of these air marshalls have a special needs child, or a disability, or a family member with a chronic severe illness. If they did they wouldn't be on here spouting about how we should blow a few billion on cargo planes and a squillion dillion on fighter jets. Those bastardin' things cos thousands of euros for every minute of flight and need a ridiculous amount of maintenance and support crews. They are money pits.

Frankly I think it is highly insulting to families who are affected by special needs or disabilities or long term illnesses to be suggesting that the government spend money on military equipment. There is enough squander in this country without taking it to that ridiculous level. The only winners in that scenario are the arms dealers of the military industrial complex - the Devil's Henchmen if ever there were.

At the end of the day it'll never happen anyway for one reason - there are no votes to be got from it. Any politician who seriously advocated military spending above the bare minimum would be slaughtered at the next election. That's the truth of it.

Podge_irl · 31-01-2022 11:59am

The point of defence forces is not and never has been "value for money"

The point of the government is generally value for money.

I am aware it is not an ideal world. In the world we live in, we are on the western edges of Europe and frankly not all that likely to face any realistic immediate dangers absent either a world war which is basically already lost or the UK deciding to take back the country. Neither of which we would be in a position to do anything about, no matter how much investment we made. We are a country bordering a belligerent neighbour such as e.g. Finland who would have massive incentive to delay any action until help can arrive.

The first step in making the DF fit for purpose is being very clear about what is actually required of them.

CreadanLady · 31-01-2022 12:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557826#Comment_118557826

Ah here. This is getting ridiculous. Listen to yourself ffs.

Sure the rest of the EU forces have that capability, and if there is any threat of any significance we will be let know about it.

Sure when the Russian Navy were coming, we didn't need a primary radar or a fleet of submarines to know about it - everyone knew about it. Sure joe Duffy was on about it on his whineline before the fleet even came anywhere near the EEZ.

CreadanLady · 31-01-2022 12:20pm

I think the Rambo wannabes here also miss the point that having a capable military just paints a giant target onto the country. If there were a war involving western europe, an ireland that had a capable military would be something an attacking force would have to deal with and neutralise. Even if it were just an easily overcome speedbump for the attackers, it would be a devastating near complete wipeout for the irish defences. And it would all be utterly futile and pointless because it would be totally unwinnable.

Our best defence strategy is non-belligerence and diplomacy.

But the problem with that is the military toughguys on here won't get a horn for it.

fly_agaric · 31-01-2022 12:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558551#Comment_118558551

I'm not one of the armchair military experts or "air marshals" (I laughed I admit) you sneer about and don't pretend to be, but (on the cargo planes aspect) I do know that it must be extremely difficult if not impossible to hire a plane to fly into a war zone (e.g. Afghanistan last year). I doubt anyone will take that risk for you with their people and their plane, no matter how much you pay. Yes it is a rare event, but it can happen (see last year) but it's usually worth it to be prepared for such things.

The government wanted to be able to take Irish citizens out of Afghanistan before the Taliban's deadline + went to a huge amount of hassle to do so. Not sure I fully agree with them bothering (!)...but that is another issue or question and only my personal opinion. I haven't heard anyone complaining about what they did. In the end they were able to do anything basically because other countries were willing to help them, not because of their own capability to do it, the big money they could pay out to buy space on an aircraft, or some favours "owed" etc.

Others were willing to sacrifice their own capacity to take people in/out on our behalf, which is very good of them. That might always be the case. I admit we are quite lucky as a country with good + strong allies/friends, but maybe it won't be possible next time Irish govt. badly wishes to get people to/from some dangerous place fast as a result of unfortunate & or unforseen events. It could even be you & yours some day, you just never know I suppose!

Mecanudo · 31-01-2022 12:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558777#Comment_118558777

I was casually reading this discussion with some interest and taking in the different povs until your comments.

Calling others names and flinging insults aboud about rambos and having "horns" is not discussion regardless

31-01-2022 1:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558551#Comment_118558551

Just to say whether or not they have someone in their family with a disability or not is irrelevant to their job of maintaining the DF.

to further add — the HSE is paid some €20bn a year iirc. They’re well funded. But half a million on Paul reeds salary, it’s not money being spent well.

BattleCorp1 · 31-01-2022 2:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558487#Comment_118558487

The civilian population is by-and-large unarmed. Most people wouldn't have access to firearms even if they wanted to step up to the plate.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558777#Comment_118558777

Your point about not having a capable military stops us becoming a target doesn't make sense in my mind. It's up there with 'If I promise not to eat the lion, then the lion won't eat me'.

I think the fact is that we are a very small nation and will always (no matter what resources we have) need the help of bigger allies should someone decide to invade us.

bear1 · 31-01-2022 2:17pm

Why would we need subs?

I mean Christ we can't be seen as the pathetic outlier of the EU where we beg for help whenever something happens.

Up the budget to option 3 and get on with it, the longer they wait to join the 21st century the more it is going to cost.

The idea we don't have radar is in itself embarrassing.

Fixed wing aircraft? Are they chasing Cessna's away? I'd be looking at air and naval security before going the tanks route. If they've it on shore then tanks are the least of our worries.

Report claims Defence Forces Admit ”They Cannot Meaningfully Defend Ireland”

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