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How can we integrate Unionism into a possible United Ireland?

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    How exactly would that work ?

    You'd be loosing 25% of GDP overnight and probably turning the clock back to the previous times when the devolved government didn't have power-sharing forced upon it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    The report was funded by KRB in America. The head of KRB is also the head of Friends of SF.

    The report kinda back fired on SF. The gains are relatively small considering the possible costs and would require a switch from socialist policies to a conservative Tory style if the suggestions in the report were followed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,489 ✭✭✭✭Dav010




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    Tax is income from the government perspective. Income tax, corporation tax, VAT etc all help to fund our expenditure such as PS pay and pensions , social welfare and capital investment on infrastructure etc .

    The report doesn't say we gain 35bn net over 8 years. It's a 35bn increase in income. Do you think that is enough to increase NI social welfare and PS pay and pensions to the Republics level.

    It's not covered in Hubner report. Just asking if you think that would be enough?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,489 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Oh dear, Harry’s going to love this:

    ”In 2018, KRB commissioned an economic study by Canadian consultants about the cost of a hard Brexit on Ireland and the benefits of reunification. It funded a similar study on the economic benefits of unification in 2015. 

    Responding to queries from The Irish Times, Mr Scally said KRB makes grants to different organisations, including to those that advance the cause of the unification of Ireland. “We do not comment on specific grants or grantees,” he said, adding that KRB hoped “to help resolve conflict through education”.



  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 76,141 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Can everyone stick to the topic



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,544 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    War is a dirty business, easy for us in 2022 to say what happened 100 years ago was wrong but remember a lot of the prods were on the side of the Brits and were only too happy to inform on their neighbours who were in the IRA which would have meant a death sentence for those men.

    No tear should be shed for touts and they deserved a bullet.

    Its also worth rembering that it was Catholics who suffered most under British rule and the famine was also a lived experience for the still living grandparents of many of the IRA volunteers, many of those prodestants remained wealthy and owned the land while a million of their fellow Irish died by the side of the road.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,664 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    only Unionism can integrate itself into a possible United Ireland. The rest of us should just concentrate in coming up with a fair and equitable 'United Ireland' that would suit all it's citizens, Unionists included, but treating everyone equally. I think thats where you will lose Unionism. 'Equality' is a rarely used word when it comes to Unionists.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,664 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    just as its inevitable SF will be elected into Government, it's also inevitable a UI will come to pass. You may get off your high horse and get used to the idea. also, think outside the box a bit. the 'republic' and the 'north' wont exist after a UI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    Copying Francie with the Pol Pot / year zero approach.

    Opinion polls show little appetite for funding a UI in the Republic and support on the wane in NI so i certainly don't see it happening in my lifetime.

    Will be embarrassing for SF to be the biggest parties North and South and still not achieve a UI .



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,489 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Neither is inevitable, at present two thirds of the electorate in ROI would not vote SF if there was an election today. And even if they were elected into Government down here, they would be pragmatic enough to focus of the important issues which are affecting people rather than calling for a referendum on NI. A loss in that referendum would be absolutely catastrophic during a SF government.

    So dream on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    Agreed although many of the things the old IRA done were undeniably wrong and cannot be excused, I don't condone sectarian attacks against protestants like what took place at a large scale in Cork, killing protestants for no reason apart from the being protestant or killing them for reporting to the police force they had been reporting to their whole lives.

    I fully support the old IRA but you can't deny they carried out a lot of horrible acts that cannot be justified, although those actions in the 1920s or 1970s certainly don't take away the legitimacy the people had to fight against British rule in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    Nonsense, if you want to do such a large and we'll resourced study like that on the economics of unification using some of the greatest experts from around the world then someone has to pay for it, it was an independent study carried out by people from around the world who are completely impartial who also carried out similar studies on German and Korean unification.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,289 ✭✭✭mikethecop


    this seems relevant , and most certainly matters

    another propaganda thread from the on line army exposed as expected



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,489 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    It was a study paid for by SF friends to assess the “benefits” of unification, Maverick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    Wrong, it was a study paid for by the KRB to assess the economic impact of unification using some of the greatest experts from around the world who also had previous experience carrying out similar studies on Germany and Korea.

    You seem confused, let me explain, just because the conclusion was largely beneficial to the island does not mean it only focuses on the benefits, the greatest experts in the world factored in everything and came to the conclusion that unification would be very beneficial for the economies both North and South.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    I'll ask again, on what pages are Public Service pay and pensions factored in?

    You have already admitted it doesn't factor in Social Welfare so it obviously doesn't "factor in everything". We currently spend 15bn a year. What would that increase to after unification?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    As the link shows the study claims a "significant boost in GDP".

    35bn over 8 years doesn't sound like much to me. Would it even cover the extra social welfare spending?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,489 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    See the article I linked above on KRB and their comment. Think you are taking a flier there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    Again more lies, the study is there for anyone to see, you have repeatedly promoted this false narrative that the greatest experts in the world forgot to factor in social welfare payments and if they had have remembered this they would have came to a completely different conclusion, you repeatedly claim this on the hope that no one bothers to look at the study and that they simply take your word, I already disproved this claim a page or two back when I showed that one of the major things they factored into their conclusion was taxes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    So after 8 years we have an extra 35bn added to our current GDP of 350bn.

    350bn for 6million people vs 385bn for 8 million people.

    What will our expenditure be on the extra 2 million in population over the same period?



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,220 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Ok, I've read the report: it's a fluff piece that comes to the conclusion those paying for the report asked it to.

    It's written in assured language and uses just enough economic logic to pull the wool over the eyes of anyone who hasn't had any economic or data science education but put simply, it's pumping figures from 5 areas into statistical models and coming to the conclusion that a forecast for the entire Island's economy can be reliably predicted on these 5 areas. Not only is this a gross over-simplification of the nature of economies, there's half a dozen issues I'm spotting within the first 20 pages of the report.

    • Some of the figures being fed into the models are estimates (due to a lack of availability of data - see pg 10 "Basic Modeling Challenge" where they admit the data is constructed using "admittedly more speculative estimates".
    • The models being used to support the "5% reduction in cross border trading costs" are repurposed from their original use of the analysis of Canadian/US border trade (a totally different beast than the NI/Republic of Ireland border). This would obviously lead to an over-estimation of the impacts of the removal of the border since trading costs between ROI and NI would be negligible compared to those between Canada and the US.
    • It's position that simply by adopting the Tax System of the Republic of Ireland "a period of economic catch-up is likely to ensue whereby the Northern Irish economy would shift structurally from low value-added industries to high value-added industries" is both wildly optimistic and ignores many of the key contributors to the fact the Republic of Ireland's has higher value-add economic activities than NI (not least a superior education system). While it correctly asserts that such a shift is likely to foster greater FDI in the north, it doesn't include any analysis of whether such growth is likely to be hampered or reversed by the likely resurgence of paramilitary activities brought about by any unification (spoiler alert: paramilitary activity destroys the level FDI). The models aren't sophisticated enough for that - they've just pumped figures into pre-existing models that ignore key variables in the economy they're applying those models to.
    • It's productivity improvements are predicated upon a convergence of productivity levels in the North to those of the ROI (i.e. they believe that simply by unifying the Island on a map, the cultural and political environment of the North will suddenly map to that of the south. A nonsensical assumption. In the 100 years since it's foundation Northern Ireland has developed a distinctly different cultural and political environment to that of the Republic and that's not going to go away overnight, or even within a generation...
    • It's analysis of the ROI assuming responsibility NI fiscal deficits attempts to wave away this cost with a projection that "Unification would.. eliminate the need for two parallel governmental structures in many domains and likely result in public spending in the north that diminishes over time". It takes no heed of the fact that the current NI fiscal deficit is lower than it would be were NI entitled to ROI levels of social welfare and public sector pay. The notion that public sector numbers will drastically reduce also comes off the rails when economic projections hit the real world: just look at Children's Allowance here: an entire department which could be eliminated by increasing dependent rates of social welfare and the introduction of a tax credit but which will never happen because it would mean Letterkenny would lose employment... the gains simply wouldn't happen because it wouldn't be politically expedient to make a few thousand residents of Northern Ireland redundant (not to mention that such actions would likely contribute to the aforementioned paramilitary resurgence)
    • It makes the classic mistake of using GDP figures to try and analyse the Irish economy. Every student who's passed a Junior Cert in Economics can tell you why this is folly...

    Try to remember, just because Sinn Fein's Press Secretary refers to the authors as "greatest experts from around the world" doesn't mean it's true. No doubt Donald Trump has paid such experts to generate reports as spurious as this one to "prove" that the 2020 election was stolen...



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    The frightening thing is even though it tries to be as positive about Unification as it can it still doesn't deliver an impressive outcome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    Nonsense, the study was taken by some of the greatest experts from around the world who have previous experience in similar studies on German and Korean unification, it does not try to "pull the wool over the eyes of people with no knowledge on economics", it has received worldwide praise from some of the greatest economic experts from around the world, not self proclaimed economic experts on Boards.ie, instead of listening to your analysis I'd rather listen to the real economic experts who have commented on the study.

    Like Michael Burke, economic consultant and former Senior International Economist at Citibank in London, discussed the impact of a unified Ireland.

    Adding: "In my view - and I think it is substantiated by this very voluminous research - Irish unification is a growth story, is a success story, is a prosperity story, and that's why I very much welcome the report".

    Or how about Marcus Marcus Noland, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who provided comment on the study, writing: "Modeling Irish Unification is an important, timely examination of the economics of Irish unification, applying state-of-the-art modeling techniques to the issue at hand. The modeling work illustrates a variety of channels which are likely to be at play in the Irish case, and concludes that Irish unification would be economically beneficial to both parts of the island".

    But of course they are all wrong, the self proclaimed economics expert sleepy from boards.ie claims "it does just enough to pull the wool over the eyes of anyone with no knowledge on economics".



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    So after repeatedly making up complete and utter lies for the last few pages that the report does not factor in expenditure in a desperate attempt to convince anyone stupid enough to believe that the greatest experts in the world forgot to factor in expenditure in their study on the economic impact of a United Ireland, and if they had not forgotten they would have come to a completely different conclusion, even after clearing this up numerous times by copy and pasting directly from the study, you repeatedly make up the exact same lie once it gets to the next page, it's a scandal this sort of behaviour is allowed on boards and that you have not been thread banned for the amount of blatant lies and misinformation you have posted on this thread

    The main data models used for the study were, and once again I copy and paste directly from the study,

     Input-Output  Proportion of value-added in exports

     Retail Sales  Trade disaggregated by component or 

    destination

     GVA output, income and 

    expenditure

     Compensation of Employee

     Inflation  Tax receipts

     Capital Stock  Public expenditures

     Gross Fixed Capital Formation  Composition of household consumption

    Tax was one of in not the biggest factor in the whole study, which is the same thing as expenditure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,172 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    If the British king was offered and willing to take irish Citizenship. He could run for president here in a UI? probably get a big vote especially in Ulster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    Is unification going to really make us more economically damaged than we already are capable of being without it?

    At least paying for unification will give us unification.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225





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