Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

In the 80's, you paid extortionate tax generally got a bigger house on a bigger plot of land at a much lower price however the interest rate was massive.

The wind of change were very kind to this generation.

Imagine if you purchased a much smaller house at close to peak property prices on a much smaller parcel of land at a low variable rate, taxes are still high but with national debt where it is, they may get much higher

The wind of change may not be so kind over the next couple of decades.

We still need to learn that forcing our children into a precarious position is not a good policy for the country as a whole. One would have thought that 08 would have hammered this lesson home?

That includes children of all generations by the way, as in the 80s they were our biggest export

Trump had the same playbook but with China. Create a big bad bogeyman abroad to try to stir up national pride. It's sad that the general public just swallow the narrative hook, line and sinker. Nothing will happen with Russia except posturing and the EU is too dependent on Russian gas to do anything, so it won't be possible to blame this conflict for sustained inflation. Quite simply, the magic money printers at the Fed, ECB going and full pelt the last few years then hitting overdrive in COVID times is now coming home to roost. There is now nothing to step in to the (capital S) State when QE disappears. It's inevitable that some sort of recession/correction will happen as QE is wound down, the question is when QE is wound down.ECB seems to think inflation will go down itself this year without alluding to slowing down and stopping its QE, not sure how the manage to do that but they are wedded to the idea that supply bottlenecks and energy prices are the main drivers of inflation.

This should only be amended for certain “safe professions” (nurse, gardai, teacher) with high job security and only up to 350k loans.

with house building costs at 250-350k there is limited risk of excess speculation.

I think the argument is that people can afford to pay rent which is higher than what their mortgage repayment would be.

'what they can afford' refers to mortgage repayments and not buying without a loan.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0201/1277223-mortgage-lending-rules-need-to-be-amended-ppi-says/

This 3.5× income is the best thing the CB has ever done. The situation regarding rising prices would be worse at the moment if it were not for this

I see some greedy pigs like the IIP are trying to destroy it so their greedy property developer friends can make more profit by mortgaging people up to hilt. But I think the CB will ignore them as they know exactly their real motives for changing the 3.5×income ratio.

Ffs who let that aul fool on primetime?

Patronising people about making better choices and talking about high house prices are due to insulation and our "sophisticated transport network". Different planet stuff. The most ridiculous rubbish Ive heard on primetime in years and that's saying something.

Maybe we should all live in a bin like oscar and be happy about it. Would make your blood boil.

They might be able to afford the mortgage when the ECB has interest rates at 0%. But what happens if they got to 8%. A few years into the mortgage they could be in trouble. The CB has to protect borrows from that situation.

I know people say that is unlikely rates will go up that far but you never know especially with inflation at current levels. By law of Masstrict the ECB has to keep inflation under 2% and unwinding QE and raising rates is how they will do this.

Also they are going to be competing against other people who can only borrow 3.5× income. Are people stupid enough to think if they are allowed borrow a higher ratio then others won't.

ban investors from buying for 3 years. Would it cause more pressure in the rental market?

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2022/0202/1277268-government-intervention-property-values-housing/

I have said this for a long time that the government should guarantee that they will buy any new property that is not sold to the private sector to give developers/builders the confidence to build. Obviously there needs to be a price cap and it wouldn't apply to houses over a certain price and would be based on building costs allowing for a modest profit on each house.

Colder houses that cost more to heat is not the answer to lower housing costs. Moreover, nZEB (nearly Zero Energy Buildings) standards are an integral part of Ireland achieving its CO2 targets and transitioning to a green economy.

Would this be why the markets have baked in two rate rises from the ECB?

Stats like that in the context of the amount of time inflation is sticking around and also in the ECB's failure to predict it which is indicating the ECB hasn't much of a clue.

So doesnt it make sense to reduce the running cost to heat a house in a cold climate? i.e. a higher capital cost to reduce the lifetime operational cost with additional benefits of more comfortable, healthier & safer homes for occupants. Substandard housing also tends to negtively impact those who can least afford it.

No doubt, but not to the extent you are suggesting. They Govt benefits in many ways along the property development & construction process. But building standards incrementally increase over time in line with societal expectations. Whats more, in line the Energy performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD) in, Ireland carries out a cost optimal analysis to define NZEB requirements.

The notion that Building regs are randomly introduced by a Govt motivated to increase its revenue is nonsense. Building Regs are generally extremely well considered before being brought into law. All of the Part L regs are also being driven by the EU, so we have little choice in the matter.

How are they proved? The reasons for rising electricity costs are fairly well established by now, but Im not aware of any evidence of smart meters having an effect of increasing the wholesale price of electricity. Smart meters will assist the network operator to actively managing & upgrading the network more efficiently by providing close to real time data. This actually helps drive costs down.

I have a leased EV and fully aware of the BIK exemption. Yes the exemptions are being wound down, but this is simply normalizing as the national fleet transitions to electric (personally I think the Govt are doing this too early). You wont have any argument from me on VRT of new cars.

There is no doubt increased building regs over the years have contributed to an increase in construction costs, but again, so have our expectations as a society. But I think you are overplaying the role of Building Regs in adversely affecting housing affordability.