Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I said less as a portions of your incomes over the period of the mortgage.

Plus inflation likely increase the nominal value of the home over the time.

Any money that's thrown at property now will only increase price. The only solution is to add supply. The age of cheap money may be coming to an end at least in the medium term. We have Runaway corporation taxes many feel the level of such taxes are temporary. The solutions are under our leaders noses all they have to do is sniff

27000 construction workers have applied for working visas to enter the country. The government have instigated an action plan to process these visas, while at the same time have deployed staff to trade fairs to sell housing to investors

Housing is their number 1 priority

people are desperate, because its a desperate situation, security of accommodation is a critical human need, this is why people are making these decisions, its nothing to do with them making poor decisions.

state borrowing is the only way out of this, state debt does not need to make returns, it just needs to be serviced, baring in mind, governments have the ability to borrow long term, i.e. long term perpetual bonds etc. by not doing this, this forces us out into private sector credit markets, and credit is hard wired for returns, and a lot of that time, this is done at all costs, which tends to lead to credit fueled asset bubbles, and.......

...and makes no sense that corporation taxes will fall, yes its possible, but corporation profits are at an all time high globally.... we should also radically change the way we accept this form of revenue by part acceptance of stocks and shares, and utilize sovereign wealth funds from there, but thats another days work.....

....and doing everything possible to inflate the prices of those houses.....

Family home is protected under Irish law people have a right of residence so cant see repossessions in any great number there may be a few buy to lets hit. When are we going to stop borrowing we cant continue in the current manner, we are already hugely in debt and with interest rising it means more and more will be taken from the day to day spending and spent on servicing the debt. We have embraced public debt any more on top will turn the embrace into a strangle hold. Get the popcorn, the next 5 - 10 years is going to be bumpy I will give you 10/1 that PS unions this year will be in asking for massive pay rises to cover inflation , which has knock on effects for their pensions that we have to pay. Then the dole heads will be looking for their payrise and once again it will be left to the middle and high earners to pick up the tab and of course that will role into generations so your kids and grandkids will be left paying for the sins of their ancestors. I can also see a lot of the high earners who can remote work leaving. We really could be in some serious trouble in 5 - 10 years time if the shinners (or who ever else is in power) act the b0ll0x and borrow like there is no tomorrow. The debt has to be paid back with interest and that is rising we were able to borrow at close to 0% for the pandemic that will all change and when our debt rolls over we will be hemorrhaging money

once again, it is in fact our over reliance on private debt/credit in order run our economies, that has brought us to this point, baring in mind, all money begins its life as debt, so if we dont continue to borrow publicly, this critical need falls back towards private debt/credit, this approach has run its course, its no longer providing us with our needs as it is just leading to credit fueled asset bubbles, as credit is hard wired for maximising returns, at all costs.....

once again, increasing the income of those in the public and private domains actually makes sense, including those on welfare, as a significant amount of this money is spent into the economy, i.e. this money moves from the public books into the private domain, increasing the velocity of the money supply, keeping businesses open, and creating jobs.....

yes, if we maintain the status quo of attempting to balancing the books, this will more than likely lead to the middle being squeezed further, solution, dont balance the books, theres no need to, in fact its actually dangerous to, by running a perpetual deficit, this reduces our reliance on the private sector money supply, i.e the credit supply....

We cannot keep borrowing on the never never the bill will have to be paid at some stage and some people think the magic money tree will be there forever and basing this on the borrowing during covid which was a once off global event. It wont and when interest rates rise we will be struggling to pay the interest alone. If we had no debt to service maybe your theory would be one that could work but under the current constraints it is not and there will be a lot of other areas looking for some relief or some money to be pumped in. In my opinion the public sector and welfare should not be getting any more cash before the USC is taken away from workers. The public sector cuts from after 08 have been more or less reversed where is the reversal of this "so called temporary tax"

So just to throw it out there I see the following areas looking for cash or for the burden placed on them to be cut due to rising costs of day to day living.

Tax payers

OAP

PS workers (knock on effect to their pensions)

Welfare recipients

infrastructure (roads, education, health, emergency services, etc)

Housing/homelessness

Employers

A.N.Other (farmers, fishermen, etc)

If you give it out in one of the areas above it will be to the detriment of the rest we can not continue to borrow at the rates seen during the pandemic what you and others are looking for would push our interest repayments to unmanageable levels. Do we keep borrowing and wait for the IMF to come in again?

We also have serious threats to corpo taxes and our high earners the state could lose billions from both of these sector over the next decade.

Running a perpetual deficit sounds grand in theory except for one factor. All debt is someone else’s investment and as a result you need investors to buy your debt. As your debt increases the risk of default increases and investors need a higher rate to compensate for this risk. The central bank could step in and act as the investor to buy the government debt (i.e. QE) but if this is used in fiscal spending as you suggest all this leads to is inflation and devalued currency.

Well as I outlined in my post above , I dare anyone to tell the other vested interest groups outlined that spending will be targetted on housing and your needs are just not going to be catered for unfortunately there are other needs that also need addressing. Also you need to take into account that most if not all of the other groups I outlined have a higher demographic and that means that if governments want votes they will pander to them this is how it has been since politics began. We cannot afford it.

I'd call it an alternative to the private rental market. Focus it on workers so that your guaranteed an income stream. We know that injecting investment at the top does not result trickle down, put it in the middle, different story for everyone

Moral hazard in spades. its like 2 people trying to climb out of a hole the lad on the bottom says I am going to climb over you and stand on you head to get out and even do you were further ahead and wont be able to reach the top once I get out its ok as I got out and you should be happy for that fact even do I am leaving you behind in the hole. Villa thanks but no thanks I pay enough in taxes for an already p1ss poor service I get in return , guaranteeing everyone a house is not going to work, how do you sort it out, which workers do you prioritize and to what areas in the country the most obvious area is Dublin and the other major cities So the biggest flaw I see within your investment strategy is why should people pay more in taxes and who have coughed up hundreds of thousands for a house in the burbs or surrounding areas of Dublin (or any other major city) pay for this when they could not afford to buy in these areas when they were buying.

But people on HAP do not own the property. This poster I believe is looking to subsidise the buying of property for a certain cohort of workers who match a certain criteria

1 as we have learned from this thread, Housing is an issue throughout the EU

Worries are growing about anti EU sentiment. EU economies are struggling 0 rates and QE are not really working, rather leading to asset price bubbles. Affordable housing with significant potential to be revenue positive would be a significant win for the EU bloc as a whole. Think of the competitive advantage over othe countries. Germany has done quiet well in no small part due to stable housing costs

If rents are linked to wages they are an excellent inflation hedge and attract investors seeking consistent reliable income. Our current system attracts investors that sweat the asset, pump its value and offload when signs of a crash are on the horizon. There is significant scope for the whole system to be privately funded once proven.

2 We never had rents at current levels so it would be hard to not make a profit, maybe it could help fund those peoples pensions

1A Alma Road, Monkstown, Dublin - Hunters Estate Agent - 4566720 - MyHome.ie Residential

Cool location and all, but that is a sliver of a site in someone's garden (have a look on google maps overhead) and the house is €2.3m. Mind boggling price.

Am quite concerned about what’s happening now.

It is Celtic Tiger stuff already in the industry, massive amount of development happening and no one can get staff. Inflation is at its worst in many years.

There’s a type of mania again, overproduction is going to happen in the next five years, as sure as night follows day.

There is undoubtedly a boom underway, which will meet demand at some point. But it could happen suddenly, if net immigration were to slow significantly it’d be a painful shock.

The end is almost certainly a couple of years off, but it could be all the more painful.