Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Running a perpetual deficit sounds grand in theory except for one factor. All debt is someone else’s investment and as a result you need investors to buy your debt. As your debt increases the risk of default increases and investors need a higher rate to compensate for this risk. The central bank could step in and act as the investor to buy the government debt (i.e. QE) but if this is used in fiscal spending as you suggest all this leads to is inflation and devalued currency.

Well as I outlined in my post above , I dare anyone to tell the other vested interest groups outlined that spending will be targetted on housing and your needs are just not going to be catered for unfortunately there are other needs that also need addressing. Also you need to take into account that most if not all of the other groups I outlined have a higher demographic and that means that if governments want votes they will pander to them this is how it has been since politics began. We cannot afford it.

I'd call it an alternative to the private rental market. Focus it on workers so that your guaranteed an income stream. We know that injecting investment at the top does not result trickle down, put it in the middle, different story for everyone

Moral hazard in spades. its like 2 people trying to climb out of a hole the lad on the bottom says I am going to climb over you and stand on you head to get out and even do you were further ahead and wont be able to reach the top once I get out its ok as I got out and you should be happy for that fact even do I am leaving you behind in the hole. Villa thanks but no thanks I pay enough in taxes for an already p1ss poor service I get in return , guaranteeing everyone a house is not going to work, how do you sort it out, which workers do you prioritize and to what areas in the country the most obvious area is Dublin and the other major cities So the biggest flaw I see within your investment strategy is why should people pay more in taxes and who have coughed up hundreds of thousands for a house in the burbs or surrounding areas of Dublin (or any other major city) pay for this when they could not afford to buy in these areas when they were buying.

But people on HAP do not own the property. This poster I believe is looking to subsidise the buying of property for a certain cohort of workers who match a certain criteria

1 as we have learned from this thread, Housing is an issue throughout the EU

Worries are growing about anti EU sentiment. EU economies are struggling 0 rates and QE are not really working, rather leading to asset price bubbles. Affordable housing with significant potential to be revenue positive would be a significant win for the EU bloc as a whole. Think of the competitive advantage over othe countries. Germany has done quiet well in no small part due to stable housing costs

If rents are linked to wages they are an excellent inflation hedge and attract investors seeking consistent reliable income. Our current system attracts investors that sweat the asset, pump its value and offload when signs of a crash are on the horizon. There is significant scope for the whole system to be privately funded once proven.

2 We never had rents at current levels so it would be hard to not make a profit, maybe it could help fund those peoples pensions

1A Alma Road, Monkstown, Dublin - Hunters Estate Agent - 4566720 - MyHome.ie Residential

Cool location and all, but that is a sliver of a site in someone's garden (have a look on google maps overhead) and the house is €2.3m. Mind boggling price.

Am quite concerned about what’s happening now.

It is Celtic Tiger stuff already in the industry, massive amount of development happening and no one can get staff. Inflation is at its worst in many years.

There’s a type of mania again, overproduction is going to happen in the next five years, as sure as night follows day.

There is undoubtedly a boom underway, which will meet demand at some point. But it could happen suddenly, if net immigration were to slow significantly it’d be a painful shock.

The end is almost certainly a couple of years off, but it could be all the more painful.

Check out this interview with Julian Brigden starts 12 minutes in. We can talk for 400 pages about supply and demand but I feel this will have the biggest impact on house/asset prices in the future.

Need to brush up on financial terminology

Cpi is general inflation

Ppi is the rise in costs for producers (which may be passed on to consumers)

GFC great financial crash

Ireland’s planning history is simply abysmal. To use a terrible phrase there is no joined up thinking, so you get areas with loads of new houses but overcrowded schools and no amenities. Still the people who make submissions routinely get dismissed as cranks.

So have no doubt the wrong sort of homes will be built. It’s crazy, but the system is very largely developer led, and I say that as someone who has done very well from Irish construction.

I don’t think things will slow for a few years either, but inward migration is the wild card. If it continues the market gets even hotter but when it goes into reverse, as it will, there’ll be a problem. If it doesn’t happen for a few years the problem will be serious.

It all depends on your personal circumstances and what you think will happen to house prices in the near to mid term.

• If you are renting for say 2,000 Euro a month that is 24k a year.
• Your age... If you be able to get a 30 year mortgage or will this be restricted by your age if you wait a few years.
• If you think house prices will become cheaper in 3 years time then you need to work out how much cheaper and whether it is worth waiting or better off buying now. (24k x 3 years = 72k) Will houses prices drop from their current price by 72k or more over a 3 year period.
• If houses prices increase by say 8% in year 1 then you will need prices to drop by 80% etc...

Personally I don't see houses prices dropping in value for the next 3 years because of lack of supply and the fact that we are seeing wage increases in the economy which will mean that people will be able to borrow more as the LTI rules are based on gross salary. But as I said this is my personal view and others will have different views and no-one will know for sure what will happen.