Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Oh right, I'm chief now. Well at least it is a promotion. Every time I read your posts I think that is the dumbest thing I'll read today. I forget that you might make another post.

It is, if you have it chalked down as the US being the aggressors, absolutely devastating...

Fortunately, that's only in oppositeland, where the Kremlin is the fountain of truth.

I am genuinely curious about where Putin is going with this and have as a result come up with a perhaps far fetched theory, based on the following facts.

1. Putin does not want a war, as he is not an idiot.
2. NATO does not want a war, as they are not idiots.
3. NATO will not accept dictates demanding the freedoms of countries like Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to address their own security concerns.
4. NATO does not exist to invade Russia in spite of the wetdreams of the "Putin boys" here, as the NATO governments know that an invasion of Russia would be a self inflicted Nuclear winter. Russia also knows this.

So given the above what is Putins goal?

Is his goal domestic? Is he actually trying to strengthen the ties within NATO and possibly motivate countries like Sweden, Finland (and perhaps Ireland) to join so he might better present NATO as the external beast to a Russian population that needs continued distraction from Putins very real internal failures.

Falling population, extreme poverty, requirement of Police state controls on media, Russian NGOs, state-sanctioned murder of position on foriegn soil and domestically, no domestic innovation in industry and complete reliance on export of mineral resources to pay for a failed society.

Falling population is happening all over the globe.

Russia doesn't have extreme poverty by World Bank metrics.

It's poverty Rate isn't any worse than Ireland's.

"Police State controls on media", was there some point in that part of the world when media wasn't under scrutiny

State-sanctioned murder isn't unique to Russia, insofar as the rest, there's nothing in all of your assertions that merits some extreme action like going to war.

I thought Putin was some sort of autocratic dictator like leader that wasn't democratically accountable, so why would HE be worried about appearances?

He's just waiting on a mate.

The Russians not invading is the status quo. People have been crying "The Russian are coming! The Russians are coming!" for months now. And not once has anyone even tried to explain why Russia would invade now. What can they hope to gain that they do not already have from 2014? Crimea and its naval base? They have it already. A frozen conflict to exercise a veto on Ukrainian membership of NATO? They have it already. The status quo is not ideal for Russia, but its certainly better than invading Ukraine.

The reality is if the Russians were hoping to intimidate Ukraine/NATO they would not be saying "We are not going to invade Ukraine". They would be staying completely silent about their intentions and let others worry about it. By saying they are not going to invade they surrender a useful tool to extract concessions. What concessions are even possible? To extract concessions by intimidation, there has to be the possibility they will be conceded. Nobody (including the Russians) can reasonably expect NATO, the US or the EU to concede anything to Russia.

Does Russia even have the capability to invade and hold Ukraine with just 100,000 troops? For the liberation of Kuwait, the US and its allies amassed a million troops. Ukraine is 30+ times the territory, and 10 times the population - to be held by just 100,000 troops? When you allow for supporting forces, the actual number of combat troops able to take and hold territory is going to be a small fraction of that 100,000. The Russians have repeatedly brought together between 90,000 and 130,000 troops to carry out military exercises in 2019 and 2020. 100,000 is too small for an invasion, but it is about the right size for a military exercise.

So the whole "Russia is going to invade soon" narrative doesn't really get off the ground when any one with some common sense looks at it. For a crime to happen, there needs to be motive and opportunity. There is no reasonable motive that has been offered, and the opportunity is highly dubious.

Assuming 100,000 troops (or at least their equipment) has been redeployed (I mean, the US would never lie -right?) to Russia's western border regions there is two probable causes: 1) its for a military exercise of the type the Russians have carried out before. 2) It is the new normal, giving Russia increased options to intervene should Ukraine attempt to militarily defeat the Russian separatist enclaves.

The US looking foolish is that they are increasingly isolated with their rhetoric about an imminent Russian invasion. Europe isn't falling into line. China has told the US to quit it, and is now openly backing Russia. The UN security council meeting was a waste of time. Their press briefings are reduced to making wild claims about crisis actors, with no evidence whatsoever. And even Ukraine is asking the US to calm down. And nobody in the US is going to fight to protect Ukraine's borders when US borders are an open joke. The Russian invasion narrative is over - don't worry, the US will try again in a few months.

The plot thickens: "The Kremlin has often announced plans to station Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad to counter the US missile shield being developed in Eastern Europe. Washington claims that the shield is to counter possible missile attacks by Iran. However, Russian officials say it is directed against their country." Russia deploys nuclear-capable missile system in Kaliningrad: reports | News | DW | 07.02.2018

Possible counter attacks from Iran? lol

But all this talk about America vs. Russia is just a carry over from the cold war which was engineered to scare everyone, including the Russians. The real players here are not nations, the real players are the intelligence services. They, like the banks, are above nations and above loyalty to any politician. For them nations are just like pieces on the chess board. They are there to bring about their agenda. And we don't normally know what the agenda is until it is established.

What Putin is and what his dreams are is irrelevant. To say his opinions matter is to imagine he has power. He, like most of them, is just a pawn.

"The real players here are not nations, the real players are the intelligence services. They, like the banks, are above nations and above loyalty to any politician. For them nations are just like pieces on the chess board. They are there to bring about their agenda. And we don't normally know what the agenda is until it is established.

What Putin is and what his dreams are is irrelevant. To say his opinions matter is to imagine he has power. He, like most of them, is just a pawn."

You cannot SERIOUSLY be suggesting that Putin, the former elite-level KGB agent, doesn't know what's going on with his own intelligence services and is being strung along by them?!

Putin literally IS the intelligence services. Putin is as immersed as anyone could possibly be in the intelligence services - he got to such a high rank in the KGB he had to move to the presidency to have more power.

About Biden or Trump or a lot of leaders it's a very plausible theory, you probably got the idea from people saying it about them. To suggest it about Putin is absolutely laughable and betrays a woeful understanding of world politics. To "imagine he has power" about Putin - Literally NOONE has ever said that about Putin before that I know: pro-Putin, anti-Putin, it's a ludicrous suggestion. Please leave, adults are talking here.

@zv2 the cold war which was engineered to scare everyone, including the Russians.

A newly hatched conspiracy theory? Haven't heard this one before anyway.

The real players here are not nations, the real players are the intelligence services. They, like the banks, are above nations and above loyalty to any politician.

Oh brother we don't want to go there (the "banks" dogwhistle) now as well do we?...Just when you think thread can't possibly get worse, another depth is plumbed!