Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Putin has been ruling Russia - directly or indirectly - for over 20 years now. There is plenty of evidence to try understand his motivations and appetite for risk, even if those are not shared. His interventions in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 are perfectly rational if you accept that Russia considers those nations joining NATO to be a threat to its security. Their action was not irrational or mysterious. Russia, rightly or wrongly, has been quite consistent on communicating its red lines. War's are caused by failures to take the other side seriously too.

A Russian adventure in Ukraine 2022 makes no sense. It gains Russia nothing it doesn't already have and risks much - further sanctions, loss of allies nervous of Russian adventurism, NATO intervention, potential defeat leading to political unrest or maybe worse a quick victory followed by a grinding insurgency. If no possible motivation for an invasion now can be discerned, then its reasonable to start from there not being a motivation.

For my own part, the formal annexation of the separatist regions doesn't make sense for Russia. They want to influence Ukrainian politics - those republics, in Ukraine, voting in Ukrainian elections, with extensive autonomy and Russian identity, holding a constitutional veto on Ukrainian foreign policy to prevent western Ukraine aligning with the EU or NATO is the dream scenario for Russia. Annexing them would prevent that - they gain a few provinces, but lose Ukraine.

Oh that's very good. @agoodpunt , you need a bigger stage. Boards.ie is too small a platform for this type of output.

The Russians have already invaded, so your opening statement is inaccurate. The Russians don't need to hold the entire country. A more likely scenario is for them to secure access to the water sources for the Crimean peninsula, and possibly an expanded section of the coastline. A quick, destructive campaign to reduce Ukrainian capacity, along with punitive strikes against infrastructure could also be an objective.

The US calling out possible Russian misinformation efforts isn't an act of desperation, it's a deliberate effort to deny Russia's ability to craft the narrative. The Ukrainians have also been active disrupting likely Russian cells operating in the country. The playbook of 2014 is not going to be as successful 2nd time around.

For someone whose posts I've had a lot of respect for in the past, you've really gone deep into the conspiracy stuff in this thread.

If the Russians have already invaded, then why are people excited about a possible Russian invasion? It's already happened by that logic. What's new?

Water shortages in Crimea is a plausible rationale for seizing control of the North Crimean Canal. But the costs - further sanctions, alienation of allies, potential political unrest affecting the regime, potential NATO intervention, potential NATO expansion, possible long running insurgency - far, far, far outweigh the benefit. The Crimean water supply has been a problem since 2014, but the Russians are investing hundreds of millions in reservoirs and water treatment and desalination plants ( a far safer solution), so it seems they made the decision against seizing the NCC already.

I find it bemusing that people are so deep into this stuff that even applying some common sense to a scenario is treated as heresy or blasphemy. Its like a cult or religion with some people.

The counter point to that could be the Russian have a view that they are already facing sanctions. Therefore they could hold that the short term impact of further sanctions is worth solidifying their holdings in Crimea and the Black Sea. Along with that, the current uncertainty is causing financial difficulties for Ukraine in securing investment and credit from banks. That serves to weaken Ukraine and perhaps bend the population towards compromise.

It very well might be, but I don't remember USA being involved in the process, other than always saying it shouldn't be built. So it's not really anything Biden can decide on.

It is quite obvious from the start of this tread that of are a complete troll spouting lies and propaganda so I don't read your posts and I will not read the responses you make to anything I write. Their are people here willing to discuss what Russia is doing what their motivation is, you are obviously here to cloud any attempt at a discussion with parroted lies.