Share Picks 2022

Benefit of stock split is it opens up inclusion in certain indeces. Like there is speculation google could get into Dow Jones but was not possible pre split.

FB still looks interesting to me from the perspective of if they were forced to split from Instagram and Whatsapp in the future you could have all three stocks for one purchase today.

They have fingers in plenty of pies, not just FB, which has been on a downward trend in the west for a good while now. I think the growth in places like Africa and SE Asia masked the decline in general fb usage.

The Insta/Whatsapp/Oculus/Metaverse part of the company isn't going away anywhere soon..

In fairness, this is largely the law of large numbers...2.9 billion Monthly users. (Bear in mind they can't go near China). Their total market is ~7 billion people, when you take away old people who will never use social media, babies and people who don't have access to the Internet then they've already tapped into most of the market.

Are they in structural decline because of one particularly bad quarter (Made worse by Apples privacy policy changes) who knows?

I personally don't use any of facebooks products anymore bar whatsapp and I see it as the 21st century cigarettes so couldn't care less if it disappeared.

Saying all that a 25% drop seems to be an overreaction, not really a company I like so don't plan on buying, but there is probably money to be had at these levels...trading at 17x P/E vs their historical 5 year average P/E 28x

I definitely think Facebook Social Media site is losing relevance but they still have a goldmine of data to use for whatever nefarious means. Also Instagram is still "In" with the kids and will only grow IMO. Same for Whatsapp. If FB is forced to split then you get those two solid companies. I think it would be better if they did as think how much they are held back whilst Zuck plays with his Occulus set. Also read this a while back on how Whatsapp makes revenue. We might see it become a subscription service soon.

How WhatsApp Makes Money [Revenue Model 2021] (whatisthebusinessmodelof.com)

@jams100, it was their absolute number of users that declined, not growth. The only segment that grew in the US was the over 60's. When young people are turning away from something it tends not to end well.

@RaggyDays, I'm well aware that they're getting value from me, but I feel at some point they'll ned to go to a subscription. Google have more info on me than any company in the world, and they still charge me for my Google Drive space. Doubt they need the cash from me, but it all adds up to a powerful recurring revenue.

Metaverse is such a cringy dotcom boom era idea, nobody wants to put an Oculus on their heads or go into a Second Life world for a meeting, and I love VR...

The Facebook/WhatsApp/Instagram side of Meta is still a very profitable business with some very smart people involved.

Their only real problem is they are haemorrhaging money on the Metaverse project. None of us truely understand what that is and/or what it could morph into in future. Soo, I will reserve judgement...just to say, the people involved have previously shown an uncanny ability to turn muck into gold 🥇

Personally, I will be keeping a close eye on Meta and will jump in when I feel it has bottomed.

Peter Thiel left the Meta/FB board yesterday, after 17years.

Down another 2% pre-market

Some very backwards thinking on the Metaverse. Folks who can't see it's future are humming and hawing like folks were with the demise of the nokia 3310 when smartphones arrived. The Oculus is only a very small part of the scene but has a huge amount of use cases. It's what's been done with augmented reality, Metaverse worlds, smart glasses like the Ray bands that FB developed. The technology behind this stuff doesn't come from small start-ups anymore, it takes huge investments.

Note it wasn't that Facebook was earlier or better than the likes of Myspace, Bebo etc back in the day, It was the fact that FB got massive investment from Wallstreet which allowed them to scale. They had the funds for better infrastructure so when you clicked that thumbs up button or loaded a new page it is seamless, no delays and made for a better experience.

Zuck is doing the same thing with the Metaverse, and soon it will be so far ahead that the barriers to entry will be too great even for the likes of Apple or Google.

I reckon in 5 years time they'll be the equivalent of 3D printers, loads of potential but nobody really knew what to do with them.

Zuckerbergs vision is that everyone wears this headset. They're spending billions and losing market share trying to get people to wear a VR product to "be in the metaverse". But they're they're associated with a company people don't trust, and they're ugly as ****.

Meanwhile Apple have sold 300m Airpods, a product people want to be seen wearing and are willing to leave in their ears half the day. Apple may have already conquered wearables and built what Zuck wanted.

Just from my own portfolio, added Flutter & Mitek in last period so set at 30 stocks now.

Flutter as a cover to US gambling as I sold Draftkings (for a heavy loss) and Mitek was just an interesting opportunity in a space that isn't overly crowded (ID verification)