Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Of course they are and should be concerned. The price of oil is increasing but the point that I was making is that we will not see an increase in oil prices like last year unless oil hits 150USD a barrel as the base effect gets eliminated from Feb-2022 onwards.

Agreed, however the full effect energy inflation has not fed into other prices yet

Ppi v cpi

Kelloggs for example are planning 20% hikes this year

Do you know if the cpi makes allowances for manafacturers reducing size/portions as opposed to raising price of the existing portion

Whatever about private companies charging the surcharge for not paying upfront, the government most certainly shouldn't be charging for doing this. Road tax is penalised up to 13% if you don't have the ability to pay 1 year in full. That could be immediately suspended.

The price difference for pre paid energy is extortionate, when you also consider it eliminates bad debts

The Government restructured its bond portfolio when rates were negative which means that the rates are locked for on average 10 years so rising rates will only really impact any additional borrowing and won't lead to a massive increase in servicing costs and austerity as in your example.

I also think you can't really call rising rates a black swan as it's not that it is a unpredictable event.

Blah, blah GDP, blah blah the equally falacious GNI. Greece's debt per citizen: €37,876 ... Ireland's: €52,585.

Our debt is 38% higher per capita than Greece's. Ireland's average income is 32% higher than Greece's so, thats a 6% funding deficit if taxation is equal. I would like to work out what their debt works out to per income tax payer, but the language barrier is beyond me. Finding the figures for this country was a bit of a convoluted chore.

You don't pay off national debt with GDP or GNI, you pay it from tax revenue.

Yes, but as tax revenue is the relevant factor here surely it should be used for comparisons? And the projected growth of same?

GDP/GNI is all well and good but it doesnt translate into govt coffers as well as actual tax revenues do?

Are you an economist? If so, please do explain how the governement pays off a national debt that stands at €150,000 per income tax payer? I once tried to work out the average tax take per taxpayer, and I likely got it wrong, but my probably wrong numbers were something like €9K per income tax payer. Obviously non income taxes are not amenable to such a calculation, but they are not likely to make the €150K any more payabale.

If you really want to make your head spin, I know it does mine, think of another island nation, without any of Irelands advantages, that also has a population of about 5m, yet their national debt is €14,648 per head - only 28% that of Ireland's.

Strewth; stone the bloody crows - don't even begin to be adequate.

This bleep of a country is so gobsmackigly mismanged it's an out and out basket case. I do not want to be around when that piper has to be paid.

Governments worldwide never pay off debts

Its all built around the myth of perpetual growth, just keep rolling over your debts, and as your GDP (and revenue) grows and debts stay the same, in relative terms they have decreased.

It is all a pyramid scheme really, based around continuous growth in population and incomes, and when it ends it will be absolutely disastrous but sure look - thats life. If we were in charge of our own currency it would be a different story, you control your debt to a higher degree and so long as you arent run like a basket case, then debt management is OK. Common EU currency hampers our abilities, we cant inflate our own currency and devalue debts because we are at the whim of the ECB (and Germany).

We won't be paying back our national debt, ever. It is as simple as that. We will issue long term bonds that the ECB will buy in the event that the piper is due to be paid. As you have noted, it is insanity to even argue for fiscal prudence in the context of our ridiculous national debt - it is so unfathomably large that people talking about running balanced budgets and trying to service it need to rip up their old school/college textbooks as the old rules no longer apply.

They're probably reading these statistics and positioning for a potential recession;

Why would we repay our own central bank (the ECB)? That would be a guaranteed, self-inflicted economic crash if we were scrambling to repay ourselves. It's totally hypocritical and nonsensical to back the QE policy of the ECB and at the same time worry about our national debt - the ECB will just print more money and buy new bonds for those due to expire. This is the natural progression from their magic money printer approach. Again, it comes down to the actual practicalities involved in attempting to repay existing debt, it's as close to impossible as you can get.

And the result of this will be further inflation and higher interest rates, rinse and repeat and we will be further in debt.

Probably the main concern with ireland is the over reliance on MNCs. As long as they keep growing and bringing in the corporate tax and huge wages then prices will only go one way. If changes come - a slowdown, changes tax laws etc then who knows what happens. But many have waiting a long time for change here.

so the whole of Europe are seeing inflation due to the continuation of printing of money to flood the continent with cash. Its only logical its caused inflation.