Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Padre_Pio · 09-02-2022 12:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604353#Comment_118604353

Exactly. Was this a result of Brexit?

Funny enough, FinTech investment in the UK is down 9% this year (it's down in most countries). UK had the largest FinTech FDI of all the European countries for 18 or the last 20 years. All except 2021 and 2019, when France overtook the UK.

The slow decline continues.

pixelburp · 09-02-2022 12:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118603836#Comment_118603836

Venture Capitalists are a false metric to gauge a market, or indeed an economy - be it the UK or anywhere. It's very niche, an extremely hype-driven industry that often oversells its own success and importance; with a lot of money funnelled into potential "explosive growth" gained from tech startups. VCs throw cash around for the precise reason that some might come good, against the dozens (hundreds) of startups who crash and burn. There's little to no investment in the actual host economies of the startups themselves, with these companies very much the "Small" in the SME acronym. Especially if the startups are built as Remote workplaces.

God knows I'm inundated with recruitment mails, for the million blockchain startups washing around the UK and Ireland; for that reason alone it's a precarious situation once the blockchain bubble bursts. Certainly it's a stretch to seriously link an uptick in VC "investment" with Brexit, not in any direct fashion.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-02-2022 1:20pm

Venture Capital is gambling. The 10% ventures that succeed have to payback the loans of the 90% that fail. So even if they succeed there's a huge flow of money back to the foreign gamblers/investors.

Meanwhile the UK still isn't back in the EU Horizon scheme and it's ~ €100Bn funding. Some of the 1970's tropes are coming back. Like the Brain Drain.

murphaph · 09-02-2022 1:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118603836#Comment_118603836

Lol. You can drive a lorry right across France in 4 hours. Not all lorries going between the UK and the EU are or were "trans-continental journeys". Why ignore the journeys from close to Calais to close to Dover, say Paris to London. Now that journey takes twice as long....if this 4 hour wait time is achieved and what about bad days where it backs up due to say inclement weather? That 4 hours will snowball as it has many times already. There is no getting around the fact that if you put a customs and regulatory border between you and your neighbours, there will be not insignificant delays at that border.

Seth Brundle · 09-02-2022 1:36pm

It looks like another change the UK might introduce as a result of Brexit is to remove some vehicle safety measures brought in whilst an EU member (and which the UK helped formulate).

The regulations include Direct Vision Standard (DVS), hailed as a "world-first for lorry safety" by Transport for London (TfL) when it came into effect in March 2021, before subsequently being adopted by the EU.

DVS is part of Sadiq Khan's Vision Zero strategy, and requires operators of HGVs to meet safety requirements or face fines.

HGVs of 12 tonnes and above are assigned ratings between 0 and 5 stars depending on how much the driver is able to see out of the cab.

Operators of vehicles assigned 0 stars are required to fit safety features, including cameras covering blind spots, an audible warning when turning left, motion sensors covering the sides of the vehicle at low speeds and a prominent warning on the rear of the vehicle.

Apparently no decision has been made. However, Transport Minister Trudy Harrison said "The UK’s departure from the EU provides Government with the platform to capitalise on our regulatory freedoms. The vehicle safety provisions included in the EU's General Safety Regulation are currently under consideration. Government will implement requirements that are appropriate for GB and where they improve road safety."

https://road.cc/content/news/uk-may-use-brexit-freedom-ditch-safety-measures-290145

Padre_Pio · 09-02-2022 1:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605086#Comment_118605086

It's better to have no service than an unpredictable service.

Even if the ferry is longer, it's usually predictable and logistics and customers can plan around it.

roosterman71 · 09-02-2022 1:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605094#Comment_118605094

If they diverge there would lorries not meeting the EU standards be allowed into the EU?

Capt'n Midnight · 09-02-2022 2:03pm

The UK hasn't replaced the Horizon money yet. And it's linked to the NI protocol so you may wait.

The EU is now throwing another €10Bn at semiconductor development with another €43Bn to follow. R&D money the UK won't see.

The argument about UK economic growth vs EU was settled in November - Northern Ireland economy has outperformed rest of UK, ONS figures show

Not sure if this is to distract or just more of the UK's Big Brother project. : Adults will have to hand over credit card or passport details before they can access social media sites, the British government threatened this morning. But it's another step away from the EU's data protection ethics.

Seth Brundle · 09-02-2022 2:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605167#Comment_118605167

I would presume not but that kind of forward planning has not featured in the Brexit process

Nody · 09-02-2022 2:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605167#Comment_118605167

There is only one truck manufacturer (DAF, 15k trucks a year) in the UK and I can't really see a truck company saving a whole lot of money by not including them on a truck in the first place (because it is additional customization in the builds which adds time etc.). I'd be more worried about "normal" cars were imports could be using it to save a few dollars.

kowloon · 09-02-2022 3:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604717#Comment_118604717

I wonder if the whole Theranos/Elizabeth Holmes case has opened a few eyes in that respect. Massive investment created by hype that couldn't be turned into reality.

ambro25 · 09-02-2022 3:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605855#Comment_118605855

In the US, probably. But over here in Europe, I don’t believe so.

I’ve worked with startups on their IP for a couple decades now, and rarely more so than in the last 4 years after moving to Luxembourg (not much digital R&D about, once outside the University’s ecosystem, but the vast majority of what there is, is Fintech/Regtech/Insuretech startups): VC investment is significantly lower, slower and less prone to hype.

Divergence from GDPR and assorted other EU-driven strictures and standards (effective and emergent ones), even if that divergence is still mostly mooted at this stage (…though there are practical and unreported examples aplenty already, e.g. UKIPO site), is already doing a ton of damage for UK digital startups.

pixelburp · 09-02-2022 3:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605855#Comment_118605855

From where I'm looking, I think what has happened is "blockchain" and the spectacular bullshít that are NFTs et al have taken over as the new Big Hype. There was definitely cooling off from the giant slush of cash that was pushed into all those vaporous startups, but some of the shadier, more scruple-free VPs have instead pivoted to the blockchain.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2022 5:48pm

Britain to make an 'offer' tomorrow apparently

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1491811574838874116

An offer on a treaty already signed? It's absurd. They have not even kept their own commitments to date.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-02-2022 6:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118611711#Comment_118611711

This is part of the UK's ongoing negotiations with the UK.

When a deal is agreed it's presented to the EU who will politely acknowledge receiving it.

The chariot will then pick up speed like a space probe lithobraking.

Breezer · 10-02-2022 9:00pm

The EU has always said that the door remains open to further negotiation, if the UK shifts its position (red lines). Truss will be listened to. However, I suspect what she is bringing is a load of unworkable rubbish, and going on past Tory form, it's unlikely even to be new unworkable rubbish. But we shall see.

Headshot · 10-02-2022 9:04pm

.....

54and56 · 10-02-2022 9:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118612540#Comment_118612540

The standard fare would be for Truss to dress up whatever she proposes tomorrow as some grand compromise on the UK's behalf pitched primarily for domestic consumption and to denounce in grand stand fasion any form of EU response which isn't a whole hearted acceptance so as to be seen to be "tough" on the EU and keep the ERG wing warmed up should there be a leadership contest soon.

If so it'll just be political theatre rather than actual problem solving and won't be taken seriously by the EU.

fly_agaric · 10-02-2022 9:28pm

Relationship (from EU side) should probably be frozen as regards accepting new proposals until they (UK) actually start coming good on some of their previous promises on NI protocol. Also I kind of think the longer they don't do that, the more it demands some sort of response from the EU beyond doing nothing and (sort of) waiting the current UK govt. out/hoping things improve in the UK-EU relationship later.

The NI protocol checks the UK currently do (the most numerous & onerous of any external border in the EU we were told on these Brexit threads at one stage) have been revealed to be, well not very thorough at all if last Tony Connelly/RTÉ article on the subject is correct.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2022/0205/1277880-tony-connelly-brexit/

"However, auditors found the entire system was not fit for purpose, even though the inspection covered some of the grace periods (ie, when the full spectrum of checks were not actually applying).

There was a litany of shortcomings: chronic staffing levels, goods not being properly checked, multiple agency IT systems not interacting, agencies not having the legal basis to do what was required, multiple errors and gaps in food safety certificates, lorries not being officially sealed."

Leroy42 · 10-02-2022 10:52pm

Jeez, that makes for pretty grim reading.

The UK just are not interested in resolving this in any way that aligns with their previous agreement.

We are right back to the starting place of unicorns and IT solutions and probably mobile phone tracking!

The fact they didn't even bother to implement the separate labelling, relatively easy, shows just how little they are willing to do.

farmerval · 10-02-2022 11:02pm

In the land where sucking up to the leader is the only currency, actually doing things gets no brownie points. Liz Truss making "offers" that they know cannot be accepted to give the press something other than parties to talk about is the way to even greater glory.

When the attorney general met the devolved governments to explain the new bill to overturn EU law she couldn't answer any questions, there were no answers because there was no policy, just an announcement that gave the Tory Press something for the front page that might take some heat off the Dear Leader.

Again Truss in Moscow, what is that achieving? Toughest sanctions ever, that they failed to get to parliament before she went to Moscow to supposedly threaten the Russians with? The same Russians that donate to the Tory Party.

The only policy in town now is anything that can be spun as positive for Boris (anything at all other than partygate, or saville gate)

54and56 · 12-02-2022 12:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118611711#Comment_118611711

So, did I miss the "offer" Liz Truss made today?

breezy1985 · 12-02-2022 12:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118619161#Comment_118619161

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-uk-signals-it-could-accept-checks-on-goods-for-northern-ireland-1.4800080

They offered to agree to do the stuff they had already agreed to do first time round in the oven ready deal

54and56 · 12-02-2022 12:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118619173#Comment_118619173

Classic. And no doubted presented as a Brexit "win".

salonfire · 12-02-2022 9:46pm

In another disappointing sign of the EU's failure that allows a direct competitor spring-up at our doorstep, the City is also booming in addition to the tech boom I referred to earlier. There are real signs the UK could really pivot towards tech and services to replace goods manufacturing.

Poor, poor performance from the EU who are getting played like a cat plays with a mouse.

Handing the UK a cost free TCA, allowing euro clearing to continue in London and allowing the UK to conduct Irish Sea checks - with the result in half-hearted efforts which should surprise nobody

https://www.morganmckinley.com/uk/article/london-employment-monitor-city-recruitment-racing-past-pre-pandemic-levels

Leroy42 · 12-02-2022 9:57pm

What is it compared to pre Ref Levels?

schmoo2k · 13-02-2022 11:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118622817#Comment_118622817

@salonfire are you trolling or did you not bother to read the article? Its basically saying its bouncing back from Covid (true) and that the Brexit related job loses are not as bad as some of the predications (but still not a win).

This chart from the article sums it up:

listermint · 13-02-2022 11:49am

70 percent reduction in available jobs seems.... Pretty bad.

But yes they. EU need to close ranks on this and eliminate the leeching.

salonfire · 13-02-2022 11:51am

Thanks for posting that, confirms my point nicely. Once the uncertainty was removed with the signing of the TCA, there was a rapid rebound in jobs available.

With the freedom granted to the UK by the TCA and allowing Financial Services to continue, the UK will use the opportunity to structure their economy for a modern world.

Nody · 13-02-2022 12:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118624176#Comment_118624176

No, the jobs are still at 30% of where they were before Brexit vote; that's not a rapid recovery but a drastic decline. That the decline has gone from 85% to 70% reduction is still drastic no matter how you slice it. You also conveniently forget that the TCA is controlled by EU based on the fact UK keep the controls EU require and can be pulled at any time EU feels UK controls are not good enough. With Covid now being removed EU has as well started to step requirements of finalizing those relocations they required earlier but halted due to Covid.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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