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  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭specialbyte


    Your express article mentions wind in one sentence at the end. It's mostly about political backstabbing within the Tory party as part of the heave-ho of Borris Johnson, and the UK wanting to secure domestic fossil fuel reserves given the turmoil in the markets and the geopolitical turmoil with Russia. It has zero little relevance to your "wind energy is bad" argument.

    Wind energy is displacing gas usage off our grid when the wind blows. This is good for two reasons: it's cheaper than burning gas; it doesn't release greenhouse gas emissions. When the wind doesn't blow the gas turbines run. It's really not that complicated. With more wind turbines, particularly the off-shore ones with higher capacity factors, we can burn gas less often. There is a tipping point here where increased capex costs will outweigh the reduced opex costs but were still a decent way away from that point.

    You've been trotting out the same "wind is inefficient", "wind is expensive", "wind doesn't blow all the time" arguments of two and three decades ago. Those arguments had some truth and relevance then. The world has moved on but you seem incapable of seeing that the wind industry has progressed massively in the last three decades, or you're a mildy annoying troll who does this for kicks.

    Wind energy has a few problems. It's not a panacea to our energy problems. I share your concerns around the unproven green hydrogen bonanza, and that in order to get 100% clean energy (by 2050) we need to majorly solve the energy storage problem or find another dispatch-able source of clean energy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭gjim


    Untrue - Germany is a net exporter of electricity and has been since 2002. The last time it was a net importer, less than 10% of its electricity was renewable - now the share is 41%.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Status as a net importer or exporter isnt the full picture though - they are a net exporter because of all the renewables which when they do generate, often generate far too much. In some cases they are literally dumping excess on their neighbours at rock bottom prices just to stabilise the grid.

    When they need to import however, the reverse is not the case. Net exporter implies they have too much and are self-sufficient, but they are not. They are just as reliant on foreign power to plug the gaps as we are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭gjim


    That's not true either. I couldn't find a full time-series of numbers but I immediately found this for 2016 where the balance of electricity trade was over 2B in favour of Germany:

    There is so much rubbish peddled by nuclear-fetishists about the German electricity market. It's their boogyman but it relies on a bunch of made-up b*llox like the idea that the Energiewende has resulted in the most expensive/most unreliable/dirtiest electricity in Europe.

    It's like some people simply refuse to accept that electricity technology has moved on from when the steam turbine was king (coal and nuclear) and that arguments that applied decades ago are still relevant. Steam turbines became uncompetitive decades ago - muscled out by gas turbines - and now gas turbines are uncompetitive with renewables. Although discussing a different sector of the economy, I find Cheese's description of how markets change and how actors have to adapt quite relevant (viewer discretion advised - language/violence):




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    2016 wow, only 5 years out of date

    Meanwhile recently:

    Germany export surplus shrank by 46%. No details on the prices negotiated on imports/exports via the various channels, but I'd take a guess and say its less than 2016 when German exports peaked, and before most of the nuclear plants were decommissioned



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭gjim


    Wow - a completely irrelevant fact that does nothing to support your claim that the German balance of trade in electricity is (or has been in the last 20 years) in deficit when counted in Euro. Unless you believe that a reduction in the size of a surplus is actually a deficit?

    Have you a single shred of evidence that Germany pays more for its electricity imports than its exports? If you have anything more recent that the 2015 article I linked to, feel free to post it.

    In case anyone is interested - Germany has been a net exporter in TWh terms for decades:




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


     a completely irrelevant fact that does nothing to support your claim that the German balance of trade in electricity is (or has been in the last 20 years) in deficit when counted in Euro

    Can you point out where I ever made that claim?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Germany is taking out about 60% of its electricity generation in a decade.


    It hasn't finished the replacement part.


    That's common across all of Western Europe. Decommissioning plants should be the last part of the renewable energy transition.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭gjim


    "they are literally dumping excess on their neighbours at rock bottom prices" and "When they need to import however, the reverse is not the case.".

    Neither of these claims can be true as Germany electricity trade is in surplus in Euro terms as well as in TWh terms.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Although Germany is generating record amounts of clean energy in the north, its grid is too weak to transport all the power down to load centers in the south — a longstanding challenge for the country that is only getting worse.

    One of the most visible effects of this renewable energy saturation on the German grid is negative wholesale electricity prices, times when consumers are effectively being paid to use excess power.

    ...

    The Bundesnetzagentur’s figures do not include instances where Germany paid foreign wind farms to shut down and allow its electricity to be exported.

    ...

    “If you look at the western part of Denmark, where we have a lot of wind power, people make the observation that when we have a lot of wind, all these wind turbines are not running," Bach told GTM. "They ask: ‘How is that?’ The reason is that Germany pays them to stop."

    “It’s a booming business. Germany needs to export electricity north.”

    This is situation rarely if ever happens in reverse. There are not many (any?) incidents of Germany being paid to curtail its output so it can buy other's power, or getting power over interconnectors for free. A positive trade deficit does not contradict this situation happening.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭gjim


    The article is mostly about Germany's weak north-south transmission. The only thing relevant to your claim is:

    "The Bundesnetzagentur’s figures do not include instances where Germany paid foreign wind farms to shut down and allow its electricity to be exported."

    But - the reason is given immediately:

    "This happened to Danish wind projects in 2015 as part of the integration of reserve and balancing services across international markets, said Andrews. “It doesn’t appear that there are any incidents of this recently,” he added."

    I.e. it was required for engineering/grid integration work. It's NOT part of regular operations. It happened once in 2015.

    The Danish "consultant" who "thinks" it's still happening is badly mistaken. His only evidence for the claim is the fact that wind turbines are being de-rated/curtailed in western Denmark "which has loads of wind". This is a daft conclusion; derating/curtailment happens during normal operations based on the spot price of electricity - not because a foreign country is bribing producers to induce a local shortage. Every country with significant amounts of wind use curtailment/de-rating to manage balancing the grid - it doesn't mean Germany is slipping the generating companies a bung to turn off the turbines in all these countries.

    Just stop and think and ask yourself whether what you want to believe makes sense from a technical or financial perspective. It does not; either Germany is producing electricity cheaper than the Danish spot price which means it'll sell it into the market or visa-versa and it won't.

    Anyway this is a diversion, can you back up your earlier claim that "they are literally dumping excess on their neighbours at rock bottom prices" and "When they need to import however, the reverse is not the case." with actually relevant numbers?

    This claim remains untrue.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Of course Germany paid the market rate at the time ( unless they had different contracts or prior arrangements ) because that's how markets work. But it works both ways, it's a Europe wide grid.

    Some numbers to show that Germany has lots of options and can now trade with Belgium and Norway too. Also a reminder that each country has it's own peculiarities like France using electrical heating, Luxemburg having pumped storage. Switzerland exporting lots of hydro to Italy.

    In commercial foreign trade Germany was a net exporter for the month of November. Germany exported 2,399.5 GWh more electricity than it imported. In November 2020, net exports totalled 3,259.6 GWh.


    Germany was a net exporter of electricity to:

    •   Austria, with 2,162.8 GWh (November 2020: 2,278.9 GWh)

    •   France, with 1,786.3 GWh (November 2020: 535.2 GWh)

    •   Switzerland, with 523.7 GWh (November 2020: 205.6 GWh)

    •   Luxembourg, with 358.4 GWh (November 2020: 336.6 GWh)

    •   the Netherlands, with 207.5 GWh (November 2020: 396.2 GWh)

    •   Belgium, with 149.5 GWh (November 2020: 22.7 GWh, trading has been possible since 18 November 2020)


    Germany was a net importer of electricity from:

    •   Denmark, with 1,408.7 GWh (November 2020: 691.5 GWh)

    •   Poland, with 502.9 GWh (November 2020: net export of 141.2 GWh)

    •   Sweden, with 348.6 GWh (November 2020: 100.1 GWh)

    •   Norway, with 335.0 GWh (trading was not yet possible in November 2020)

    •   Czechia, with 194.4 GWh (November 2020: 134.9 GWh)


    Net exports in trade with France were three times as high this November due to the two countries' wholesale electricity prices. Electricity generated in Germany was less expensive in 459 of the 720 hours of trading, making it cheaper for France to import electricity from Germany. This was the case in only 297 hours in November 2020. Furthermore, the average wholesale price in France (€217.06) was also higher than the average wholesale price in Germany. One reason for this was the higher demand for electricity due to cold weather. Many households in France have electrical heating.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Another step forward for JET and nuclear fusion although probably still 20-30 years away as a source.




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Fusion has just as much of a non serious issue with nuclear 'waste' as fission reactors. Which of course can be just as easily addressed.

    Fission can be done now, fusion can't. More looking to pie in the sky energy religion.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The global spend on fusion can be compared to cost to develop Rolls Royce's SMRs where a £32Bn commitment is needed and they'll deliver 7GW 20 years later. And that's the bait and switch price for fission power.

    It's a lot more than the spend on ITER http://www.iter.org/faq#Why_have_ITER_costs_risen And on a longer timescale as the updated project schedule through First Plasma (2025) and on to Deuterium-Tritium Operation (2035).

    If they can get fusion working commercially then it has a lot of advantages. It's dispatchable. There's oceans of fuel around. It'd be a great way to undermine nuclear weapons because there'd be no excuse of using conventional reactors for power.

    Fun fact : you can make Helium 3 from Lithium-6 so no need to mine it on moon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Not sure sure what this brings to the discussion unless you're looking at building a load of fission reactors. It's really not pie in the sky, just taking a very long time to to figure out. Politically fission is now also pie in the sky in many parts of the world. Fusion will very likely become the de facto form of energy generation from the second half of the century.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    With fission the nuclear waste is mostly the reaction chamber being zapped by neutrons. Even then most of the excess neutrons would be used to produce more fuel. There are ways to avoid neutron production if need be by using different fuels. There's no waste ore, no depleted fuel, no enrichment plants or reprocessing plants. There's no stream of intermediate waste or low level waste that used to be dumped into the Irish Sea or stored at Fukushima. Not so long ago 3/4's of the nuclear power stations in the USA were caught leaking tritium, in a fusion reactor it's a valuable fuel.


    Fission can't be done now. Lead times vary between 10-20 years. Renewables and interconnecters are being rolled out.

    On the Eco Eye program last night they explained how home heating went from 98% open fires to 75-80% gas/oil in 20 years. And it's likely that district heating would do the same in the next 20 years. Retro fitting could be done by replacing your boiler with a heat exchanger. For the Dublin area there's already enough waste heat to do that. Nuclear power plants do produce vast quantities of waste heat due to their poor thermal efficiency but good luck trying to get everyone to accept that for district heating.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I'd imagine that solar will be cheaper than fission because of the equipment (turbines heat exchangers etc.) needed to convert heat into electricity. But they will complement each other. Probably use solar to extract the fuel from water or separate lithium isotopes etc. and for fertilizer production or energy to fuel or extracting metals from ores. Probably won't see a self replicating solar breeder factory but that would be cool.

    You can't build loads of fission because all the high grade uranium ores are gone and it will become more expensive. Thorium breeding needs to be significantly over unity to prime pump new reactors and even then you are going to need a lot of messy reprocessing.

    Renewables are deliverable in the near future. There's GW's of offshore wind planned for the sandbanks all down the east coast, just waiting for a rubber stamp.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    It's at 1700 at the moment, no consistency. If any of this stuff it needs consistency and a much lower unit cost, We are coming very close to the price for electricity where a diesel generator would make more financial sense than connecting to the grid.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,678 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    LOL, have you spent the last few days looking at Eirgrids dashboard waiting for a lower generation time to post that!

    That 1700MW, is 1700MW less gas and coal we have to burn. Earlier today it was 2427MW, when demand was just 3649MW, or to put it another way 66% of the demand was being generated by renewables. Over the day the fuel mix is 40% renewables. That is 40% less gas and coal we are burning.

    And hopefully in 8 years time, it will be 80% less coal and gas we burn.

    BTW The price of oil is well on it's way back up to over $100 per barrel (currently $89), it was closer to $50 this time last year, 18 months ago it was about $20. All fossil fuel prices are way up, including oil and coal.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,678 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, it is consistently following the prediction of the amount that will be generated. Was the failures of the two gas plants that shut down last year for months predicted?

    If one or two windmills fails, or even ten, that will not matter, but a coal or gas plant going off line is serious, particularly if it is for many months.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer



    We had two power cuts in the last 3months, one was an hour and the other 3 hours, there are 13 windmills on a hill a kilometer away and a small hydro plant 3km away .one fault was in Creeslough,25km the other Glenties 30km.if they'd been wired properly the power should have stayed on.

    The 2 gas plant failures are what happens when you employ someone because their uncle worked for the company rather than on ability



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,711 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Wind is cheap?? That will be causing alot of head scratching around the country with people getting hit with record energy bills this past month. Germany has to import Swedish Hydro and Czech Nuclear to keep the lights on for much of the time and pays top dollar. The wind energy they have to dump on surrounding grids during the rare sustained windy period returns no money for the german grid which is one of the reasons they have one of the highest energy costs in the EU


    PS: Coal is enjoying quiet the rebound in Germany this past year

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-coal-tops-wind-as-primary-electricity-source/a-59168105

    Post edited by Birdnuts on


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,711 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Those sites on the East Coast are also likely to be part of our much delayed MPA network - again the wind zealots put the profits of greenwash developers ahead of our biodiversity



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,711 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    The hypocrisy of that post is breath-taking given the performance of wind energy during the past year. Your figures are also rubbish given how both base load and ramping conventional plants have to operate alot less efficiently when a grid is forced to accommodate the extreme variations in wind power



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,711 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Your post actually highlights the fact that a modern grid cannot operate without having conventional power generation operating or on permanent standby - in contrast wind energy is just a totally unnecessary, unreliable fad to appeal to greenwash types at huge expense to the rest of us



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Your post actually highlights the fact that a modern grid cannot operate without having conventional power generation operating or on permanent standby

    Well, yeah, because its not setup to be any other way.... yet



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,678 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, there has been no widespread failure of the wind turbines that would match the gas plant failures from last year. Wind may not blow much at times, but that has been accurately predicted. Now having gas plant backup is a fact of life currently, and we are able to manage that - providing we do not experience more widespread failures of gas plants.

    As wind generation gets better and more plentiful, we will need other solutions than having gas plants sitting idle until they are needed. We have over twenty years to deploy those. Solar is one possibility, and grid storage is another. More Turlough Hill installations would be nice. Perhaps some micro solutions, such as small scale hydroelectric, domestic batteries and PV solar, might be enough to take over the line to 100% renewables by 2050.

    Wind generation was just hot air twenty or more years ago, and a bit of a minor interest 10 years ago. Now it is averaging 40% of our annual generation, and expecting to get to 70% by 2030. We are closing older inefficient plants that were the cornerstone of our generation 20 years ago.

    In the 1970s, nuclear was going to be so cheap that electricity would not be metered, and so safe they could put reactors in city centres - yea, how did that work out?

    Progress does not always follow the expectations of the general public, or even those of the experts.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    Your post actually highlights the fact that a modern grid nuclear power cannot operate without having conventional power generation operating or on permanent standby - in contrast wind nuclear energy is just a totally unnecessary, unreliable fad to appeal to greenwash types at huge expense to the rest of us - FYP

    We already get more of our electricity from wind than most countries get from nuclear, by 2030 we'll get more than any of them.

    Wind, solar and nuclear need backup. The difference is that wind and solar can be installed a decade sooner and nearly an order of magnitude cheaper. Offshore wind uses nearly zero land and the exclusion area around turbines provides miniature nature reserves.


    RSPB support wind energy "We are involved in scrutinising hundreds of wind farm applications every year to determine their likely wildlife impacts, and we ultimately object to about 6 per cent of those we engage with, because they threaten bird populations. Where developers are willing to adapt plans to reduce impacts to acceptable levels we withdraw our objections, in other cases we robustly oppose them."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,904 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Birdnuts, what was your position regarding the development of the Corrib gas field, and energy source you seem supportive of ?



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