Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

johnnyskeleton · 10-02-2022 2:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609804#Comment_118609804

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609813#Comment_118609813

This seems to be the general sentiment here - that without Sexton there is no chance for Ireland. However, there's an old saying in rugby that the forwards decide who wins the match, and the backs by how much.

The Irish pack is full strength and on form. With the exception of the occasional lineout snaffoo in bad weather and Tadgh Beirne losing attention at 70 when the match was already won, we have forwards who don't really make mistakes, have excellent discipline and are powerful in the ruck, if not necessarily overwhelming in the scrum.

They are equal to, if not better than, the French pack, but with the difference that the French players are on average slightly younger and with less experience (with approx 175 caps combined vs Ireland 259 odd caps combined). France have a good bench but again they lack the experience of the Irish - Healy, Hendo and O'Mahoney have between them played almost as many matches as the French starting 8 plus their bench combined! France may come at it with more energy than Ireland, but the more experienced Irish players are likely to be more coherent as a pack, more disciplined and less prone to error.

The French half backs are undoubtedly better than the Irish two, and their back 5 are probably better than the Irish back 5, but not by much. You'd have to say that France are more likely to get line breaks than Ireland, but Ireland can realistically stop this if they retain possession.

France v Ireland has usually been a grinding, trench warfare match, at least in the last decade, with the notable exception of 2020's wild and wonderful high scoring match. I would expect nothing different on Saturday. And in such matches, it is the forwards who make the biggest impact.

Ireland have shown their ability to run a tight and frustrating defense which deprives the opposition of the ball and essentially strangles them. That's always how we have beaten the bigger teams. It's great to watch fast paced offloading, line breaks, dramatic cross field kick and chase etc against a weaker team, but when we try to play a fast and loose risky match against a big team it rarely works out well for us.

So what does all this have to do with Sexton being injured? Well, Sexton's main contribution is his ability to call the plays and make quick passes. That is less important in this match than anything the forwards do, so Ryan as captain will feed into that. Plus, while some people may disagree with this, I think Carberry is a better place kicker than Sexton. If Ireland have a better tackling and rucking game than France, France will give away penalties that Joey can (hopefully) slot away. France will probably get at least one try from play, and Ireland might maul one over from a 5m lineout.

That said, I would prefer Ross Byrne to be starting than Joey Carberry, but I'm not Andy Farrell

My prediction, for what its worth, is 17-14 to Ireland

Dubinusa · 10-02-2022 2:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610355#Comment_118610355

True! But, you'd expect that Carberry is up for it? If he isn't, we are in trouble. This is his opportunity and I expect that he is training well, otherwise Carty should be starting.

If our oh's can't defend that channel it will be a long day. But. Aki is there to help. If Joey can't defend he shouldn't be out there.

Clegg · 10-02-2022 2:12pm

Hopefully Sextons injury doesn't rule him out for long. After this weekends game we've two weeks until our next one. If he's fit for the Italy game then he has to start that I think.

I don't agree with some posters about this being a blessing in disguise or that we now have to move on from Sexton. We've seen again and again that none of the other options available are even half as good. If Sexton is fit he starts. I'd prefer a scenario where there's somebody else in good form just raring to take over. But that's simply not the case.

Shehal · 10-02-2022 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610355#Comment_118610355

Hard for Danty to run down his channel when he's out injured.

France's backline isnt that big at all, the main issue would be him getting stepped or something like that.

LuckyLloyd · 10-02-2022 2:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609956#Comment_118609956

Some rugby fans understand that the most important competition we play is the one that is held every four years and features the best possible game from all opponents; than the regional competition we play every year that can feature one or multiple teams with an eye on the World Cup.

ClanofLams · 10-02-2022 2:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610383#Comment_118610383

The problem is the chance of him lasting a World Cup campaign that doesn’t start for another 18 months is well below 50%. I’m not a person who thinks six nations should be sacrificed to build for a World Cup but 18 months out you gotta start moving that way.

It doesn’t matter how good sexton is if he’s not available, need to get others experience.

Dubinusa · 10-02-2022 2:21pm

That's true Clegg, but Sexton most likely won't complete a world cup cycle. The more experience the back up gets, the better in the long run. I agree if Sexton is fit he should start, but there's no harm in Carberry getting starts a year out from the world cup. I think we'll learn a lot this week!

LuckyLloyd · 10-02-2022 2:24pm

I would have preferred Carty to start, I think the upside and pay off in a couple of years is bigger.

As is, this is exciting and necessary - particularly in the context of a healthy on form team.

sydthebeat · 10-02-2022 2:27pm

this will be good practise for when carbery start 5 games in a row in New Zealand this summer

stephen_n · 10-02-2022 2:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609952#Comment_118609952

Carbery has the talent to be a good test level 10 but he needs confidence.

Carberry does have the talent/potential to be a good test 10. However since the last World Cup, apart from brief glimpses. That talent hasn’t transferred into performances. He has failed to build confidence with his club. Yet you think he somehow will miraculously do this at international level? You have that a little backwards.

AdamD · 10-02-2022 2:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610383#Comment_118610383

It can be a blessing in disguise without us having to move on from Sexton. Whether Sexton is here or not, another ten is going to have to play serious minutes at the world cup. I'd rather that 10 have some big game experience before then.

crossman47 · 10-02-2022 2:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610425#Comment_118610425

I just differ. The Six Nations is very important, its much more than just a regional competition. What are our chances of winning the WC - maybe 25% at best. And I don't regard getting to a SF as opposed to a QF as anything worth talking about. As they say, winning is everything and we can win the Six nations.

10-02-2022 2:49pm

Well Carbery needs to step up in a big game sometime to show if he's going to have it for the future - why not now if he's ever going to do it (or not)?

We all know the injury history etc but he's 26 now - can't be talking about potential forever.

It was going to take an injury or huge drop off from Sexton for Carbery to start in a game that matters for something.

TRC10 · 10-02-2022 2:50pm

The 3rd best out half at Munster, who has 15 minutes rugby in 2 months starts in Paris

Hardly ideal.

Former Former Former · 10-02-2022 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610598#Comment_118610598

Ah here

That's some awful nonsense.

TRC10 · 10-02-2022 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610734#Comment_118610734

Ok maybe 3rd best is a bit much.

But I'm being 100% honest when I say Ben Healy has looked far better when he's started for Munster. His performances v Scarlets and Wasps were better than any game Carbery has had since January 2019.

And if I'm JVG, there's no doubt in my mind I'm starting Healy when the European knockouts come round.

I'm rooting for Joey and I really hope he goes well on Saturday and lays down a marker. But there's very little evidence to suggest that will happen.

bilston · 10-02-2022 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609956#Comment_118609956

But it is what it is. Carbery gets a start in a huge match, this might be of benefit to him and Ireland in the long run.

So while I agree that I wouldn't be happy about it I think it's OK to try and see the silver lining.

jimdemp · 10-02-2022 3:16pm

Sexton sat out the France game last year as well. Clearly Farrell doesnt want him to play against the big French team.

Neil3030 · 10-02-2022 3:16pm

I personally haven't been this disappointed by a lack of goat since our local Himalayan restaurant informed us that their freezer was broken.

sydthebeat · 10-02-2022 3:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610824#Comment_118610824

Yes,, Sexton has never put in a huge 80 min performance against the French in Paris

......

jimdemp · 10-02-2022 3:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610831#Comment_118610831

He is not a young man anymore. Strange that he sat out the french game last year with billy burns and ross byrne playing. 2 years in a row he is sitting out against the French

ionadnapokot · 10-02-2022 3:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610460#Comment_118610460

There is no question that Carbery is good enough. He has proven it whenever asked.

What I question is his match sharpness. Farrell clearly feels he’s ready. It’s a big call but he doesn’t really have an alternative since he hasn’t given Carty game time.

This team has progressed massively since these sides last met. The pack is where this will be one and lost. Ireland’s is world class.

ujjjjjjjjj · 10-02-2022 3:25pm

Pity re Sexton and fingers crossed Joey goes well. Reality though is a tough assignment just got a good bit tougher.

Injuries are injuries and can't be helped but I am a total loss re not starting Henshaw. He has been the standout player for Ireland now for a couple of years, was the best on the Lions team and is a class above a very good and competent Aki but Henshaw is absolute world class.

Can't understand it. Bizarre call.(Assuming of course Henshaw is fully match fit but one has to assume he is if on the bench).

TRC10 · 10-02-2022 3:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610888#Comment_118610888

There is no question that Carbery is good enough.

There are most definitely questions

jimdemp · 10-02-2022 3:28pm

Most likely Farrell will let sexton sit out against SA in the world cup too, for fear of injury, save him for 1 game the quarter final.

Clegg · 10-02-2022 3:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610894#Comment_118610894

We shouldn't break up what has proven to be a very successful partnership in Aki and Ringrose. It's harsh on Henshaw, but he hasn't actually started many games since the Lions series. Since then, the former have started and performed well against Japan, New Zealand and Wales. Henshaw just doesn't have the recent body of work required to usurp the incumbents.

Also, I'm sure Farrell doesn't want to make too many changes to a midfield already missing Sexton.

ionadnapokot · 10-02-2022 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610910#Comment_118610910

If Andy Farrell still has questions after 6 years there is something seriously wrong with him as a coach and selector.

ujjjjjjjjj · 10-02-2022 3:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610943#Comment_118610943

I get all of that - just to me still a bizarre call - Henshaw has a history of hitting the ground running and genuinely I think he is world class and for me one of the very first names on the sheet if fit. Anyway, go on Bundee have a stormer and not a bad guy to have on the bench !!

jimdemp · 10-02-2022 3:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610967#Comment_118610967

Hopefully Sexton will be back to play against the mighty Italians. Carbery getting thrown in the French with very little game time is poor management

Shehal · 10-02-2022 3:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118610460#Comment_118610460

Well since the last RWC we only have seen grief glimpses of him getting a consistent run of games, if you only have a grief run of games that's hardly going to lead to consistent performances, this season so far in his appearances for Ireland he's actually done quite well and ofcourse got MOTM on his one start so that bodes well. I suspect this weekends game could really be potentially the making of him as a test 10, we obviously were in a similar boat 1 year ago but Billy Burns never was and never will be a potential test level 10 whereas Carbery does have that potential if he can just get consistent runs in the team.

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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