Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

It depends on what area of commercial property you are looking at.

residential property is playing a a bigger part In commercial property but we have already discussed this.

The warehousing and industrial estates are in high demand and seeing growth as businesses hold more stock following Brexit and supply chain issues.

Office space is still in demand and I think there will be a lot of churn as companies consolidate offices spaces on the back of hybrid working resulting in more availability of smaller office space.

Retail space have an uphill battle as they had before covid but overall commercial property seems in demand

word is already out that ecb are looking at 2 interest rate rises later in the year - the proverbial s#!¥3 will hit the fan here once debt repayments rise on top of the current inflation spiral

10y is already near 1%. Governments don’t fund themselves on floating 3m rates. Inflation will keep pushing until rates are at 4% and the entire “needs based welfare state” is history. High commodity prices need demand destruction not just higher rates.

The IT and Indo starting to drum up the herd to feed the inflation beast with clickbait articles on interest rate rises. I've seen several articles now almost stating the ECB will raise rates soon and what that means. Inflation expectations are going to continue to increase with this talk of rate rises being needed to calm the whole thing; people will believe that the price of everything is going to keep going up until rates rise which of course will convert into a reality where inflation continues and the herd feels that rate rises are necessary. Hysteria and fear are probably the appropriate follow on reactions to a sustained period of irrational exuberance.

Here's two articles from today feeding the narrative that the cost of everything will keep going up and interest rate rises will be necessary.

The only way irelands bonds will fall is when big tech falls.

Yes not sure how I would be talking about yield falling now? Also why do you think irelands risk of default is so low now...

Two interest rates hikes would be 0.5-0.75%. it's quite possible we will have three this year. Maybe 1%. On a 300k--25 year mortgage that is 100/month. However rates are fixed for 3-5+years by 90% of borrowers. Anybody with 10+years paid will have a chunk paid off so you are down to 60-70/month.

Most mortgages have dropped by 1-2% over the last 3-5 years as competition from the likes of Advant money forced them down.

It will effect discressionary spending more, the loan for a honeymoon, wedding, special holiday ( family trip to Disney), car loans and house extensions. This is where it is supposed to dampen inflation.

The better half pays the ESB bill. She is running around making sure we turn off lights etc.

Renters have been seing increasing costs of this level for a decade on lower incomes, yet not a peep out of government. Really is quiet stark how different sections of society are treated

In Wexford you can rent a former classroom for 275 blips a month

Snapped up fairly quick. Gone from Daft

The way we are going an Asian has probably snapped it up and is looking for 30 Bass Reeves to fill it. Closely matches our child class ratio also so all perfectly above board

Just out of interest, where are you getting figures on those on fixed rates. A person could be on a 5year fixed rate but that could be ending in six months. Is the date of expiration of the fixed rate visible in the data.

They are in effect adjustable rate mortgages which crashed the system last time out. I know there were other factors at play but there are different negative factors at play now

Considering this list is not counting Hines, Roundhill Capital, Avestus or other smaller players and is using just publicly available data, can it really be argued funds don't have a fairly strong foothold on the Dublin market, especially when the countless BTR developments nearly complete are added.

Things looking up for banks here - mortgage holders not so much...

Irish banks among winners from ‘expected 1.5%’ ECB rate hikes, Deutsche Bank says

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/irish-banks-among-winners-from-expected-1-5-ecb-rate-hikes-deutsche-bank-says-1.4799892

This is less than 2% of the housing stock. Totally irrelevant vs the media attention.

There is more net migration in a single year than that (assuming average 2 person occupancy)