Energy infrastructure

RandomViewer · 10-02-2022 9:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609300#Comment_118609300

What's the point if people can't afford to pay the electricity bills, average house will to be paying close to €3k for power this year. And by the looks of it the intention is that electric bills will replace motor tax as a cash cow for government

Capt'n Midnight · 10-02-2022 9:59pm

A European wide 'supergrid' could cut almost a third from energy costs according to a new study from the UCD Energy Institute.

Sam Russell · 10-02-2022 10:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118612896#Comment_118612896

What has that got to do with my post?

The aim of the Gov is to improve the insulation of homes so that heating bills will be substantially reduced. The target date is 2030 for this.

Electric bills will not replace Motor Tax. The MT will a need to be revamped as the number of EVs replace ICE cars. The main requirement for climate change would be to reduce car ownership, and car use. This an only be achieved by better public transport, and modal shift away from cars - not easy to achieve, and possibly impossible.

RandomViewer · 10-02-2022 11:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118613287#Comment_118613287

Irrelevant if it's unaffordable,Most rural houses are heated by oil, couple of a electric pumps using a few watts, insulation will have negligible effecton electricity bills, need guaranteed fixed unit prices, 24month contracts

Birdnuts · 11-02-2022 2:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609300#Comment_118609300

There is no prospect of any grid scale storage FTFF - in any case wind fails to meet actual power demand for the vast majority of the time so all that waffle is irrelevant anyways

Birdnuts · 11-02-2022 2:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118612919#Comment_118612919

Thats about as credible as the "wind is cheap" argument🙄

Birdnuts · 11-02-2022 2:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118609519#Comment_118609519

The issue was not about the gas coming in - it was the poor planning and location of the terminal next to the regions water supply(Lake Carrowmore). Locals offered an alternative site to the North but Bertie and the following coalition Government(including Ryan's Greens) allowed Shell to basically do as they like with state agencies support - a bit like their indulgence of wind developers these days when it comes to their contempt for sustainable development, protection of natural heritage via relevant EU directives, community consultation, outdated setback rules etc.

11-02-2022 2:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118614081#Comment_118614081

There is no prospect of any grid scale storage

Yet, but then again there isn't supposed to be. Large scale storage is not planned until after 2030, to be in place by 2050.

Sam Russell · 11-02-2022 10:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118614081#Comment_118614081

From my post :- 'More Turlough Hill installations would be nice.'

I think that installation counts as grid scale storage that can be operated efficiently. We could do with more of these, but geography is against us. Batteries are not the only prospect of grid scale storage.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 11:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118614082#Comment_118614082

We can't add much run of the water hydro here so the only thing cheaper than wind for capital or running costs is solar. And it's geting cheaper. Soaring fuel costs means it's a lot cheaper at the moment.

Every MWh from wind means less fossil fuel. We've already gotten to 39% of electricity from wind without having added significant strorage capacity to the grid since 1974.

is_that_so · 11-02-2022 11:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118612919#Comment_118612919

Good to see but is there any work going on at EU level at present on a future pan-European strategy?

is_that_so · 11-02-2022 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118614082#Comment_118614082

Why?

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 11:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118614911#Comment_118614911

EU are subsidising the world's longest undersea interconnector from Greece to Cyprus. And the one from here to France.

bob mcbob · 11-02-2022 12:01pm

France's plan for net zero = more nuclear (6) and much more offshore wind farms (50)

(behind pw)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-macrons-50bn-nuclear-spree-ptdmb7j5c

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 12:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118614971#Comment_118614971

Batteries have nothing to do with grid level storage. They are there to load balance or allow the next level of backup to kick in. (Normally open circuit gas turbines only run up to 66% so they can ramp up that extra 33%. Turlough Hill can go from zero to full output in 90 seconds but if they are expecting demand they can have the turbine spun up and then it's 12 seconds to full output.) BTW battery costs can fall 90% in a decade and there's science dudes looking at things like sulpur, aluminium, manganese which are available in huge quantities so never say never.

For homeowners battery economics are artifical because there isn't a decent export or pricing structure. If you are going off grid it's the standing charges / cost of new poles that may pay for batteries.

Again every MWh of renewables displaces fossil fuel. On a good sunny day we could power the country from 3GW solar on existing farm buildings. Flexible panels are a thing, so rolling out solar could be quite literally be a roll of self adhesive panels which would represent a step change in installation costs. Solar is cheap and only getting cheaper.

cnocbui · 11-02-2022 12:36pm

We are one of the only countries stupid enough to proclaim a 'climate emergency', the long finger that is 2050 is a joke compared to that declaration.

timmyntc · 11-02-2022 12:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118615207#Comment_118615207

BTW battery costs can fall 90% in a decade

Source? Or is this just wishful thinking - everyone can engage in that sure, fission costs can fall 90% in a decade. In a decade we can have workable fusion and live in a post-energy-scarcity world.

11-02-2022 12:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118615229#Comment_118615229

Yeah, they really should speed up the switch to renewables but hey, 70% renewable by 2030 is a great start

11-02-2022 1:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118615308#Comment_118615308

Whats your point though? Honestly, its very unclear what point you are trying to convey

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 3:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118615308#Comment_118615308

Capital costs for gas are essentially fixed so you are going to have to find a different principle.

Reducing demand for gas will reduce pressures on it's price.

11-02-2022 3:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616177#Comment_118616177

Whats the right path?

timmyntc · 11-02-2022 4:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616162#Comment_118616162

More renewables mean more gas as a backup.

We will need to match most of our demand with gas plants (& gas reserves) in the case that the wind barely blows during the winter. Moving away from dispatchable fuels to non-dispatchable renewables means we need an increasing amount of gas & gas plants

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118615272#Comment_118615272

Battery costs have fallen through the floor. Lithium battery costs have fallen 50% in three years and 88% in a decade and 98% in the last three decades thanks to ongoing new technologies and increasing economies of scale.

Fission on the other hand is a mature technology that was commercialised in the 1950's so it's actually impressive that costs of the EPR have managed to double. And then double again. There is also the issue that if we moved to nuclear only then known global reserves of economically extractable uranium would only keep the world going for less than 4 years. Uranium compounds are readily soluble in water which means ores are dispersed and give off gamma rays detectable from aircraft.

Fusion is still a long way away. It hurts to think where we would be now if the cost increases on the EPR's had been channelled to to JET and the ITER. But when fusion is ready it will be easy to roll out.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 4:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616435#Comment_118616435

Here's how your opinion compares to - wind forecast vs measured CO2 figures.

Also the dispatchable plant has always been there. Except now they don't need to produce as much power when the renewables are producing it too.

Weather forecasting has been getting one day better per decade thanks to better computing. So can predict earlier how much dispatchable generation is needed.

bk · 11-02-2022 4:28pm

"More renewables mean more gas as a backup."

No it doesn't! What are you talking about.

The more renewables we have, the less gas and fossil fuels we will use and thus the less pollution we produce.

It is like having a plug in hybrid car. Your car has a battery and electric motor, but it also still has a petrol engine. But the petrol engine only runs when there is no electricity in the battery. The more often you plug in to charge the battery and the bigger the battery, the less often the petrol engine runs and thus the less petrol you use and buy and the less pollution.

Most people would give their right arm to see a 80% reduction in petrol they buy. This is similar, the more renewables we use, the less fossil fuels we have to burn. Simple as that.

timmyntc · 11-02-2022 4:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616518#Comment_118616518

?? How does that refute my point that the more renewables we add to the grid, the more reliant we are on gas (and the more gas generation capacity we need) to cater for the worst case scenario?

Demand for gas (and gas prices) will only go up

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616448#Comment_118616448

There are not enough rare earth minerals on the planet to cater for grid level storage required for most of the countries on the planet. And in the last 2 years lithium battery prices have been ramping up significantly after a steady 10 year decline. There are battery shortages for EVs, and with EV production and demand forecast to greatly increase, this will put massive strain on an already very strained battery production supply chain.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Market-Spotlight/Battery-costs-rise-as-lithium-demand-outstrips-supply#:~:text=According%20to%20Bloomberg%20NEF%2C%20prices,per%20kilowatt%2Dhour%20in%202022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

While some of that initial spike is due to covid shutdowns, long term forecasts are pricing in rises over the long run.

bk · 11-02-2022 4:45pm

"Where would you get your electricity when wind slows down but gas?"

You get it from gas of course, just like you would get it from petrol when the battery is flat in a plug in hybrid.

But you would see a massive reduction in the amount of gas/fossil fuels used over a year, by 2030, just 20% of our electricity should be coming from that gas, which would be a MASSIVE drop from today (60% for all fossil fuels, we currently still have coal).

Of course gas isn't the only option, we can also import electricity over the 3 interconnectors, one to that lovely French Nuclear, two to the UK. Solar can help too.

As we move to the 2050 goal, green hydrogen might replace gas, or more interconnectors to France, or CCS, etc.

timmyntc · 11-02-2022 4:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616524#Comment_118616524

Its not at all like a car - currently our grid has several different sources, some dispatchable, some not.

The more renewables (non-dispatchable) we add to the grid, the more dispatchable reserve we need in the event that renewable output is low. For a grid of 100% renewables, we would also need 100% capacity of gas or equivalent as reserve.

In terms of total fuel used, then annual gas requirements would be lower for a grid with 100% renewables compared to 0% renewables assuming all rest of generation was done by gas, of course.

cnocbui · 11-02-2022 5:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616448#Comment_118616448

Lithium battery costs can never fall low enough for long term grid scale storage. Lithium prices are on a tear and the cost of batteries may well rise, but at the basic level, ignoring that, the projected 2050 cost of Li-ion batteries is still 3 times too high to allow renewables plus grid batteries to even match that of the technology that can't be discussed.

That 2050 price probably represents the absolute floor. Mining, transport, processing and manufacturing costs can not go to zero, there is a finite miniimum, just as there is with gold mining that dictates the commercial viability of deposits.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-02-2022 5:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118616730#Comment_118616730

When you say battery = storage, I remind you again that the ESB's plan to store Hydrogen in the Kinsale gas field would need 10 times today's annual global output of lithium batteries. We're talking a totally different scale.

The UK's much larger Rough gas facility which contained our annual demand was shut down to save £75m a year over 10 years. If you don't mind the 40% conversion efficiency then seasonal grid level storage is dirt cheap.

BTW they just discovered another 11 million tons of lithium

Energy infrastructure

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