Housing Madness

Shuffl_in · 14-02-2022 10:06pm #1

Mortgages. A lot of borrowers in my home town can only afford houses in the oldest estate now. It was built 60 or 70 years ago. G rated, 2 or 3 bed semi-detached homes with tiny, cold rooms. They have skinny little gardens but the houses are very poor by today's standards. They probably weren't great even when they were built. A lot of welfare and working families grew up there. A nice little community back in the day, but poor houses.

Most of the welfare kids who grew up there got housed in a new estate across town. Brand new, roomier A rated homes. Fair play to them.

The parents are passing away now and the old houses are coming up for sale. The council don't want them because they don't deem them fit to house people and upgrading them would be too expensive. With the housing market gone the way it is it's all a lot of mortgage holders can afford. And they're buying them!

These weren't mortgage houses when they were new 60 years ago. These are cheaply built council houses. If you had a mortgage 60 years ago you had no interest in them, you were buying or building a bigger home on a private site.

But now you have the welfare families in new, roomy A rated homes on one side of the town and the working, mortgage committing borrowers buying the tiny old council houses on the other. And not cheaply.

Have we all gone f*#king mad? Surely everyone should be entitled to a decent home, especially if you've saved for a few years and are happy to commit to 20 or 30 years of a mortgage/work. Some young mortgage holders can't even afford those old council houses. And I'm told the new retrofitting scheme will increase the price of these houses even further, ruling more people out.

How bad can it get?

Sunny Disposition · 14-02-2022 10:23pm

Just took a look at rental prices in Dublin and it’s not good. If it’s going to cost more than €18k to rent a one bedroom property for a year it’s not a realistic option for almost anyone to move to Dublin.

€350 each week on rent, that equates to about €600 of gross pay.

I reckon a single person on €55k will still be under financial pressure with rent so high, you’d probably struggle to have a big weekly night out.

There’s going to be a huge political backlash. And it is required, the prices are a terrible indictment.

Deeec · 14-02-2022 10:23pm

You are correct. Where the council's went wrong years ago was selling off their council house stock. These houses should always be available for social houses. If they hadn't sold them the social housing tenents would now be living in the old houses and the new houses would be available to those who can buy

The notion of a council house for life has to change too - tenents should be encouraged or incentivised to work and better themselves to buy their own private home. Less likely to run out of social housing if people moved up the ladder.

jmlad2020 · 14-02-2022 10:36pm

Sure when supply begins to be in surplus the welfare class will be in drafty old 40year old houses. Suckers

buried · 14-02-2022 10:37pm

Pointless talking about situations 60 years ago. We no longer live in anything that resembles that timeframe. We are existing in a Corporatocracy. In a corporatocracy, you, the citizen, as a basic member of society are entitled to nothing, just the bare minimum to meek out an existence. Even if you try to move up the ladder, the steps continuously snap and collapse underneath your own feet.

How bad can it get? We are about to find out real soon.

silver2020 · 14-02-2022 10:39pm

There needs to be a change in the central bank limits, especially if someone fixes for minimum term of 10 years.

€350,000 on a 10 year fixed rate is €1,364 a month.

That's eminently affordable for a huge number of people.

It equates to a €390,000 home.

The help to buy relief should be allowed as part of the deposit.

Up to 5 times salary should be allowed but with certain limitations including a maximum loan amount of 400/450k and subject to a minimum 10 years fixed rate.

Ubbquittious · 14-02-2022 11:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118631853#Comment_118631853

1364*120 = 163,680

Not even half of 350k. where does the rest come from?

I see sheep · 14-02-2022 11:02pm

Have you got a Supermac's?

silver2020 · 14-02-2022 11:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118631989#Comment_118631989

Do you understand mortgages?

Most are 30 year terms.

You can fix the first 10 years for 2.4%

This takes the pressure off a homebuyer.

After 10 years about 26% of the mortgage is paid off.

You can also fix for 15 and 20 years

riclad · 14-02-2022 11:18pm

It,ll get worse ,rents are going up, inflation is rising, items that cost 60 cent are now 80 or 90 cent.building materials cost 25 to 35 per cent more.The problem is we need 25 k units built per year to keep up with demand.theres no sign of this happening.Workers demand higher wages because of inflation in food, high energy costs .we have a supply side crisis.People will buy old houses if thats all they can afford.its not housing madness ,its demand versus supply ,economics 101.A change in the bank lending limits increases prices .if anyone can borrow 300k guess what effect that has on property prices.Also if the council builds a house now it cost 300k, even thought the council owns the land.the opposite happened tenants were encouraged to stay and buy the house from the council.this is happening in america, house prices are going up.

young people will stop having children since they cannot afford to buy a house.The only solution i see is if young people put more pressure on fine gael, fianna fail to tackle the housing crisis

Strumms · 14-02-2022 11:30pm

Might be that the price of property and housing has to be regulated. I think regulatory measures are the only way to deter individuals and stop them from gouging the citizens.

Maybe the scope of AHBRA (Approved Housing Bodies Regulatory Authority) could be expanded…to include this functionality.

prices of taxis… regulated… independent contractors and companies in that industry cannot charge what they like…

apply the same principles to builders, property developers…..

have a builders / developers license whereby if there are issues with pricing or quality of work, their license suspended.

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 2:27am

I really don't know how it ends. People and families are getting poorer. Inflation is making things progressively worse. Young workers are simply not able to buy or rent homes.

A rent strike? Plenty of these through history and they usually work. In this day and age one would almost certainly work. If thousands of renters stopped paying rent until (let's say) a 25% decrease was agreed what can investors do? We don't kick people out, certainly not thousands at one time. Rent strikes almost always see demands met. It would inevitably lead to investors leaving the market meaning more houses available to purchase.

Obviously it wouldn't be pretty and we'd still need new houses built.

All spiel but as it is things are only getting worse. Even if things level off are young families really going to stay poor at the cost of high rents and mortgages to ever increasing foreign investors?

Strumms · 15-02-2022 2:49am

The RTB regulate the rental market, could their scope of responsibility be extended / augmented to include the private sale of houses ? The private market ?

Peregrinus · 15-02-2022 3:23am

Well, the RTB don't regulate the rental market to the extent of keeping rents low, because rents are in fact astronomically high. So I wouldn't see that they are well-positioned to regulate the housing sale market so as to keep house prices low.

Plus, I don't see that this will do much to solve the problem. If all you do is control prices, you'll have the same or, more probably, fewer houses for sale, and the same or, more probably, more people looking to buy. If price doesn't function as the mechanism that identifies the successful bidder, then some other mechanism will - most likely a combination of connections, networking, good luck and a favouring of buyers with ready cash over buyers relying on mortgage finance. But you'll have the same or a greater number of disappointed people looking to buy a house but unsuccessful in their attempt.

The solution seems to be more public and/or co-operative housing, with public policy directing resources to such projects. But that's a very hard policy for a right-of-centre government to adopt.

And there's a complication. Any policy which results in bringing down the price of houses, in real terms, will impact very badly on people who have bought houses in recent years. There'll be a lot of people paying over the odds for houses that are in negative equity; they won't be happy (and their houses won't come on the market, which is a problem if you are trying to make it easier to buy). So any policy needs to include some mechanism for addressing their situation.

Strumms · 15-02-2022 4:13am

Problem is going to continue to be supply vs demand.

until there is a way to cap demand or regulate the price of property we are screwed, there isn’t so we are…

no political party will toy with loosing votes by admonishing or curtailing the property developers who let’s face it, many are linked to politicians and political dynasties, parties and circles… so,its as you were, are, will be until somebody in the Dail has the bollôcks to act for the citizens of this country.

again though we need to look at the main driver of our rapid population growth.

Peregrinus · 15-02-2022 4:34am

The main driver of our rapid population growth is prosperity. Obviously we can adopt measures to limit prosperity, but that will affect more than the housing market.

I don't think we can fix this problem by trying to suppress demand for housing; we need to increase supply.

bytheglass · 15-02-2022 5:12am

Some good ideas in this thread, let’s collate and send them to Sinn Fein and then they have a chance at implementation

Amadan Dubh · 15-02-2022 6:03am

Hopefully the hyper growth of large MNCs stalls post-covid as the economy stalls a bit when State supports unwind, which then results in less new jobs created in Ireland and therefore less new demand for rentals. At least for a few years to have this restricted demand in order to let supply catch up for those already in the country working and trying to survive.

Peregrinus · 15-02-2022 6:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632839#Comment_118632839

If you are concerned about "those already in the country working and trying to survive", it doesn't realy make sense to hope that "the economy stalls a bit". A stalled economy is not a favourable one in which to be working.

malinheader · 15-02-2022 7:11am

The more you cry poor mouth in this country the better you are looked after. The working poor are the ones suffering most in this country hoping some government will one day make it possible for a low or middle income family to support and provide a home for their family while still having a good life.

moycullen14 · 15-02-2022 9:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632796#Comment_118632796

This, 1000 times this. One of the more insidious effects of inflation is that it is virtually impossible to unravel. Any measure the improves the housing/rented situation must affect - decrease - current house prices. Increase supply or decrease demand, doesn't matter. If things are to improve for renters/young people, then prices MUST come down - and that means the value of existing property MUST be reduced. The baby-boomers ain't going to stand for that! Relaxing mortgage criteria will only drive up prices.

Whether you own your house for 6 months or 60 years, you will feel this effect. It's electoral suicide for any party to introduce policies that decrease people's equity. Sad, but true.

It would be nice for any party to actually admit this, rather than mouthing cliches.

You're also seeing the same effect with grade inflation in the leaving cert. Once points go up, it's very hard for them to go down again.

A whole generation of economists are about to learn all about inflation - the hard way.

dxhound2005 · 15-02-2022 10:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632763#Comment_118632763

I can't remember any organised rent strikes like this.

Ray Palmer · 15-02-2022 10:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118632171#Comment_118632171

Literally impossible. Lots of laws and things like the constitution are in the way. As it is the rent controls in place look like they are going to be challenged and may cost the state a lot of money.

What people seem to miss is the quality of living standards is much better. The expectation of living standards is also much higher. Something people aren't considering is what is coming over the next 10 years. Dublin is surrounded by hosuing built in the 60s-early 80s and those original owners are dying and will die soon. There will be a ton of these houses on the market relatively shortly. They currently have a very low occupancy rate as it is 1-2 people in these houses that used to have 5 people in them. Tehy are going to come onto the market.

It might mean cheaper housing as stock comes onto the market. Some of these houses will end up being split into more than one household. The limits people think are there about housing prices aren't really there as proven in all expanding cities. Places can become smaller rather than cheaper.

Housing is way more complex than people think and spans life times. The idea of devaluing houses and/or forcing sales is not a new idea. The thing is somebody is paying for that and just because it isn't the buyer doesn't make it right. Good luck trying to get investment in property after that is tried.

It is good that you see that construction costs are a factor here. No way you will cap their rates during high demand

Wanderer78 · 15-02-2022 11:03am

oh it ll get worse before it gets better, we havent accepted that financialising the whole process has completely failed, it has caused a severe shortage in supply, and prices to skyrocketed, which only truly benefits current owners and the ultimately the fire sectors. we have to wait for more and more to realise and accept these failures, and to also accept the only way out of this is further state interventions.....

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633301#Comment_118633301

We had rent strikes in the 1970s.

And I'm sure you've heard of the Land League and Charles Stewart Parnell? High rents (to foreign owners!) led to poverty. Landowners withheld rent en masse. They demanded fair rents and a chance to own their own properties. It worked.

Seen as radical when it was proposed but now we learn about it proudly in history classes in school, for various reasons.

You can go abroad for plenty of examples of other (maybe more relevant) rent strikes. They all meet resistance by government but the power really is with the people and they inevitably work.

(I didn't intend to sound like I'm promoting rent strikes and I'm not. But in an ever worsening situation it's certainly one possibility of how it all ends).

Ray Palmer · 15-02-2022 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633594#Comment_118633594

You forget that the right to own was a big issue and non interference by the state on ownership. People here are suggesting taking those rights away but only for landlords. To compare inward investment to Ireland with the occupation of Ireland is nonsense. I know people love to talk about fighting the system like we did in the past but it is our system not some foreign power.

15-02-2022 11:59am

The trends are positive. Sinn Féin were the most popular party among all age groups up to 65+ in the last election. They made solid inroads from the 2016 election.

Even the 35-64 voters, that would have voted Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael in the past, realise what a predicament their children/grandchildren are in/will soon be in.

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 12:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633767#Comment_118633767

I'm not comparing anything to the occupation of Ireland. A member couldn't remember rent strikes in Ireland so I pointed out a couple. Including our most famous. You did read that I mentioned you'd find more relevant examples abroad but that didn't suit the narrative you spotted.

Regardless of who owns the system if you push working class people to poverty through soaring rents and an inability to own their own homes the system will crack at some stage.

dxhound2005 · 15-02-2022 12:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633872#Comment_118633872

Perhaps a negative trend for SF is the increasing proportion of the voting population who are over 65.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-19-rise-in-over-65s-population-may-shape-result-1.4165599

dxhound2005 · 15-02-2022 12:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633951#Comment_118633951

The 1970's rent strikes were by Local Authority social housing tenants. I did not see much sympathy for that group in your OP.

Jim2007 · 15-02-2022 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058233007/housing-madness

When you start out with the idea that a housing policy based on people taking on huge amounts of debt or relying on social services to put a roof over peoples heads, it should be no surprise that it goes pear shape. It is not as if we haven’t been here before. I recall the 60s when we were housing people in abandoned army barracks, the unoccupied married quarters in other barracks etc.

The EU charter on citizens rights gives you a right to a roof over your head not ownership of a house and with good reason - most other member states know and accept that everyone can’t own a house. Every state has a housing problem, but most who accept this are closer to solving it than we are.

Sadly for the individual I don’t see much of chance of things improving without a paradigm shift in people’s expectations. So long as voters continue to vote for this approach, the politicians will try to continue to deliver it. A well structured landlord/tenant legal framework is possible, a better commuter transport system, a dramatic increase in rental accommodation is possible…. but the voters are only interested in the dream of home ownership and no politician wants to be the one to deliver the bad news.

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 12:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633988#Comment_118633988

But what is your point? My OP wasn't about social housing tenants. My OP clearly stated that everyone should be entitled to decent housing. I have no idea what you're trying to say. I don't know if you do either.

Jim2007 · 15-02-2022 12:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633594#Comment_118633594

Well if the rent strikes worked we would not be here once again would we? Repeating the same headless chicken dance is not going to solve the problem this time either.

dxhound2005 · 15-02-2022 12:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634019#Comment_118634019

You want everyone to have the same standard as the welfare tenants. Fair enough, but that won't be achieved by the private tenants copying the social housing tenants and going on a rent strike. Or the mortgage holders reneging on their repayments.

"But now you have the welfare families in new, roomy A rated homes on one side of the town and the working, mortgage committing borrowers buying the tiny old council houses on the other. And not cheaply."

XsApollo · 15-02-2022 12:32pm

It’s not just housing where the middle class, or is it lower middle to middle class are screwed.

a lot of social housing gone up near me , top of the range is what I would describe the houses as.

when the new owners moved in, the cars in the front gardens would suggest they ain’t broke.

work vans , mercs , audis, BMW’s some with 2 cars, the people carrier and runabout.

madness and sickening at the same time.

middle class get screwed, the welfare state and public services cost can’t just keep increasing when will it end?

so much inefficiency at the expense of the people paying for it.

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 12:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634035#Comment_118634035

I don't know how to respond to that, sorry Jim. But I'd say it's the first time the land leaguers have been referred to as headless chicken dancers.

Eircom_Sucks · 15-02-2022 12:37pm

stop giving houses to single parents who can't afford a house , simple

spreading the legs and getting more money , while the working joe soap pays for it and gets fook all in return

system is all wrong

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 12:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634065#Comment_118634065

What I said was I think everyone should be entitled to decent housing. My lack of sympathy for social welfare recipients or this same standard deal are things you made up yourself. This discussion is not about what you want it to be about.

Gant21 · 15-02-2022 12:42pm

Plenty new SUV’s in council estates sorry social housing.

dxhound2005 · 15-02-2022 12:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634109#Comment_118634109

I didn't make up this part of what you posted.

But now you have the welfare families in new, roomy A rated homes on one side of the town and the working, mortgage committing borrowers buying the tiny old council houses on the other. And not cheaply.

Ray Palmer · 15-02-2022 12:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633951#Comment_118633951

You directly compared it by mentioning foreign investment. One of the strikes you mentioned was over 100 years ago and was very different. The next you mention was to one particular landlord not all rents. What happens in another country about rent isn't relevant here because different causes and different laws apply.

Irish people love to fight the system as a post colonial chip on our shoulder. It does matter it is our system and not a system that didn't allow representation. You can hope for some revolution from the working class but it isn't going to happen. People have been saying the same stuff all my life and it hasn't happened. Ireland had the highest home ownership in the world that was going to change always but people seem surprised. I don't even know how much of the population are renting do you? Do you think they all have the same background and agree politically? Do they only know people in their own situation?

You are looking for united group to campaign out of a very scattered group. They won't be able to manage it as it would involve too many extremists. Look at the occupation of the office block and how it all fell apart. Dream about revolution all you like but it isn't going to happen.

mariaalice · 15-02-2022 12:47pm

well done op on thinking up a new angle on welfare bashing them.

It's not the 1980s any more those in social housing will be working, kids going to university or doing apprenticeships getting on with thing,s there are more people with disabilities or with long term illnesses in social housing because its all the accommodation they can get.

Supercell · 15-02-2022 12:48pm

For those of us that were "lucky" enough to have bought an 80's house with a BER of E2 (when we bought it - single glazing, single leaf cavity block, feck all insulation in the attic etc) its not great either.

We spent a fortune getting it up to C3. We would absolutely love to get the external walls wrapped to get us at a B grade never mind A, but thats just a pipe dream, no way we can afford that.

The new SEAI scheme is a gift to the rich and freebies for those on the dole. The rich get their huge houses upgraded for half price, the welfare recipients get it done for free, and a great many of the rest of us cannot afford the 50% off ~€20k it would still cost to get ours done.

Long story short if you are rich or on the dole the government seems to care about you, the rest of us can eat cake.

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 1:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634158#Comment_118634158

I'm not looking for anything. I fairly clearly stated "I didn't intend to sound like I'm promoting rent strikes and I'm not".

People will fight the system if the system puts them in poverty but hopefully it doesn't come to that. For now the situation is bad and getting worse.

Ray Palmer · 15-02-2022 1:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634163#Comment_118634163

The idea, which I don't quite believe, is that you get a top up on your mortgage and the reduction in your heating bills will be enough so you actually pay very little more. I saw bit on Eco Eye and it showed a calculation whereby the owner only ended up paying an extra €1 a month. It seemed a bit basic but if true everyone can benefit who owned a house for a while.

It doesn't just benefit the rich and poor, people are assuming the "rich" just have the cash. Money smart people can see the benefits and borrow on their assets.

I personally got 3 properties externally insulated when the grants first came out over 10 years ago. Our heating is a lot cheaper than people I know plus the house is way more comfortable. The price to do the work now is a good 40% more expensive now but we have had all these years of saving fuel too. It will have paid for itself in 5 more years.

Ray Palmer · 15-02-2022 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634224#Comment_118634224

It depends on how you view what is "worse". People seem to think things were better when one salary could buy a house. Only one person could get a job and women had to stay at home. Now because both sexes work two salaries are needed to buy a house. Is that a worse situation?

In the 80s many people had no central heating and siblings shared small rooms. Now a child is expected to have their own room and a warm house. Better or worse?

Un-married mothers were sent to institutions and had their child sold. Now we provide housing and benefits. Worse or better?

Society changes and everything has a cost

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 1:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634161#Comment_118634161

mariaalice I have no issue with social housing. Maybe if I knew more about it I would (or wouldn't) but I simply don't.

I know most who were housed in the new housing estate in my home town I referred to. Most were single mothers at the time. As I said in the OP, fair play to them. A lot of very nice people.

Shuffl_in · 15-02-2022 1:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634291#Comment_118634291

Again I'll have to refer back to my OP. In my home town a lot of young families with two salaries can only afford the old council houses. Many can't even afford them.

Everyone should be entitled to decent housing, especially if they're willing to commit to a mortgage.

Mad_maxx · 15-02-2022 1:20pm

its all very well saying lending rules need to loosen but banks are going to need to be able to repossess much easier than is currently the case

surely people have asked themselves why foreign banks want nothing to do with this market despite far higher rates of return on lending being available ?

Gant21 · 15-02-2022 1:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634161#Comment_118634161

2/10 factually correct post.

Ray Palmer · 15-02-2022 1:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634311#Comment_118634311

Yes and as I just tried to explain to you standards are different and there is a cost to social improvements. Building standards are better now so a new home will tend to be superior to older properties. The council doesn't own the houses for sale but does the newer properties which it gives to it's tenants. As part of the drive to equality council housing was sold to the tenants at a discount. This gave poor people the chance to own and benefit from having an asset they could pass onto family.

They are the houses you now say private buyers are stuck buying or can't even afford. That is the cost of helping former council tenants own. What exactly do you want to be done? Make the council buy the old places and sell the new builds to people privately at a discount? There is a reason for it as is and I don't know what can be done other than complain.

Housing Madness

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