Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

PukkaStukka · 15-02-2022 10:37am

The latest Met Eireann forecasts for here next Friday show nothing wintry at all. Temps are circa 5.c and windy. 😞

hawkwing · 15-02-2022 11:02am

Further south it is going...

Kermit.de.frog · 15-02-2022 11:03am

KingdomRushed · 15-02-2022 11:15am

I have often seen the GFS showing widespread snowfall in Ireland, which 9 times out of 10 manifests as rain, when it is sourced from the northwest. Don't get me wrong, the 6z is something juicy, in terms of the widespread snow now showing, but convince me, why is this not likely to be over-egged as usual? I want to believe.

SeaBreezes · 15-02-2022 11:31am

Any hope of snow on the south coast?

Calibos · 15-02-2022 11:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633522#Comment_118633522

This one is too subtle Kermit. Is this implying a snowfest or is it implying that this event is going off the rails?😀

redsteveireland · 15-02-2022 12:05pm

I knew I spoke too soon about the weather not being the cause of cancelling training and matches so far this winter, fingers crossed it's worth it.

Gonzo · 15-02-2022 12:21pm

I'm still not convinced as this can go so wrong so easily. This mornings GFS 6z is over the top for such a marginal event. It usually goes overboard with snow and cold temperatures from cold zonality and these nearly always get dialed back to reality the day before. I haven't seen the Atlantic deliver a proper nationwide full snow event since 1982 and that had severe cold bottled in place over us for days beforehand. We've had frontal events since 1982 with snow but not on a nationwide scale, usually coastal counties get rain or southern areas etc.

Southern and Eastern counties especially I have question marks over as these events are usually always moderated by onshore winds off the Irish sea and can affect up to 70km or more inland from the coast. Some of the models are going for a double snow event, one on Friday morning to Friday afternoon and then another one on Friday night into Saturday morning. I'm sure some places, particularly high ground could see alot of snow over a 24 hour period then a very rapid thaw from Saturday morning into the afternoon.

We would need this probably to track even more further south, if it starts tracking further north most of us will be in the rain. If the GFS pub run on Thursday night is still showing the above then i'll get excited. So much time between now and then for this to go wrong for us, particularly with the luck we've had so far this winter.

squarecircles · 15-02-2022 12:23pm

Not like you to be pessimistic.

KingdomRushed · 15-02-2022 12:25pm

I would say the sweet spots will be in the north midlands. I agree with Gonzo, the coastal areas, such as much of Dublin will be much more unlikely to see significant snow. It is a very rare setup that delivers.

Gonzo · 15-02-2022 12:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634027#Comment_118634027

So many times I've seen these events go wrong and we're still 3 days away. If we can keep the track more southerly till the last charts roll out Thursday night then I'll believe more. It's difficult to trust the GFS in situations like this when they overcook the cold temperatures and snow levels time and time again. I hope my pessimistic viewpoint can be proved totally wrong because if there has ever been a winter we need some major luck on our side, this winter is it.

pauldry · 15-02-2022 12:39pm

I certainly think there will be heavy snow but its all so mobile and there will be hours of rain before and after too before possibly more snow. Temperatures will min out around 0c so what lies won't last as there is constant downpours.

I'd say Friday morning there will be lying snow in many areas that will be washed away by heavy blustery showers of hail and sleet. Mountains will have a lot of snow though.

pauldry · 15-02-2022 12:46pm

Dudley and Eunice are forecast to bring over 100mm of rain and snow to Sligo. I'll count rain gauge from today. Its at 152mm since I reset it December 15th to 0mm so the past 2 months wev had 152mm and the next week we could also see 152mm.

Rebelbrowser · 15-02-2022 1:29pm

Yeah, I think for most of us, even if snow falls, it may struggle to stick save at higher altitudes. Even the ICON model, which has the centre of Eunice going south of Cork, shows lots of precipitation falling but very little lying snow. See below...

Gonzo · 15-02-2022 1:46pm

A wet slushy mix is probably what many of us will see away from high ground or places well inland and tbh I'll take it to at least see some flakes falling. This will probably start off as rain and turn to sleet or wet snow as the event goes on. Some places will get lucky and get a covering but for many it will probably be wet snow falling onto wet ground. In that sort of scenario you would need an extended period of dinner plates to start and maintain a covering for a few hours. I don't expect Dublin, Cork, Waterford or many other coastal areas to come to a standstill with snow piling up. If it freezes Friday night, could be fairly lethal driving conditions.

GFS going for an ice day from the Atlantic? These are hard enough to get from a northerly or easterly unless they are proper long fetch hits.

Usually with temperatures from the GFS you can add on an extra degree or 2. Let's see what the 12z brings, will move further north and brings us into the rain or will it track further south and improve our chances?

Kermit.de.frog · 15-02-2022 2:02pm

Way too pessimism in here. 😆

There is a significant snow event on the way for many of us. It's just a case of nailing the specifics and that depends on the track which is now aligning on a more southerly track which puts us in the occlusion which is where the snow potential really is. This is a classic frontal snow set up. Currently the north midlands, west and south of the country seem likely to take the most amounts on current projections over night Thursday and through the first part of Friday day time anyway. People should be wary of the increasing risk of fairly widespread disruption Friday morning. I include Dub land in that too.

Dont get caught out😆

More updates later today 🙂

Danno · 15-02-2022 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634363#Comment_118634363

Don't forget, soil temperatures are around 2c above average too, We've a blast of mild tonight and tomorrow morning to contend with. It's gonna take a fair cold wind/or a clear calm night to get that heat out of the ground.

Mecanudo · 15-02-2022 2:41pm

What are the wind strengths looking like overall?

Donegal Ken · 15-02-2022 2:46pm

The Ecmwf 06Z run absolutely pastes the the west, northwest and north in snow. That there would be a significant snowfall event and a red warning.

PukkaPad · 15-02-2022 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634711#Comment_118634711

Dear baby jesus let this happen - although will a snow day bring the same amount of excitement when working from home and not having the I can't work today call!

Billcarson · 15-02-2022 2:52pm

I haven't seen a flake of snow yet this winter. Probably end up being a slushfest or just cold rain for low levels. The weather later this week reminds me a little bit of that atrocious winter of 13/14 ,very active weather,where the best we got cold weather wise was the odd bit of polar maritime rubbish. Cold damp and windy, not my type of cold, doesn't really do it for me lol. If anything it makes me look forward to spring and the fact this winter has been a complete dud anyway.

JanuarySnowstor · 15-02-2022 3:01pm

We've been here before with uppers proving milder when the day arrives...

No snow for me away from mountains but wind alone could warrant a red!!

Let's see what 12s say!

Cluedo Monopoly · 15-02-2022 3:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634858#Comment_118634858

Great time of year for hiking in the snow. A lot more light than in December.

15-02-2022 3:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118634609#Comment_118634609

The wet snow here west of Arklow did stick on 7th Jan

But something interesting happened, I'm just 2kms inland

In the town itself,the precipitation was rain and snow

It was the first time I've ever seen it snowing here and not in the town,the first time such a short instance inland made that much of a difference

4 or 5kms yes but just 2km's No

pad199207 · 15-02-2022 4:01pm

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Through Thursday night and Friday morning, Storm Eunice will track eastwards over Ireland. It has the potential to be a multi-hazard and disruptive event with damaging winds, heavy rain and snow possible.
Current indications are that the strongest winds are most likely to affect southern counties and the most significant falls of snow are most likely over central and northern parts of the country with locally blizzard conditions possible for a time and disruption to travel.
Warnings will be issued on Wednesday morning and updated on Thursday morning.
Valid: 14:50 Tuesday 15/02/2022 to 15:00 Friday 18/02/2022
Issued: 14:50 Tuesday 15/02/2022
Updated: 15:50 Tuesday 15/02/2022

Chris_5339762 · 15-02-2022 4:02pm

We'll see what happens - I always find these storms arrive (and clear) somewhat faster, and go somewhat further north, than predicted by most of the models.

15-02-2022 4:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635355#Comment_118635355

Yes,depending on track,even Pad might see a rain to snow event

All depends on track

Might even see a rain to snow here in Arklow if the wind blowing down from the mountains

We'll see

Wind will be interesting and where

highdef · 15-02-2022 4:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118635192#Comment_118635192

Experienced similar in north Dublin many years ago. There was a period where moderate precipitation was falling for the guts of 2 full days with a moderate on-shore easterly. At the time, where I was living, I was less than 1km from the coast. Precipitation there was mainly wet snow, barely accumulating as a bit of slush in sheltered spots. Near or on the coast, rain or sleet was falling throughout the event at sea level, in the area of Baldoyle, Sutton and Howth. Snow was falling but just slushy above about 50m in Howth and from a little under 100m, it was readily sticking and accumulating.

Similarly, just a couple of kilometres inland in Donaghmede (barely 20m above sea level), snow was accumulating somewhat (mainly on grass and on cars and rooves) but most roads and pavements were just wet. Just a few more kilometres further west again in the Santry to Ballymun areas and at an altitude of around 50 - 60m, it was inland enough and just about high up enough to allow the area to be a winter wonderland.

I'm unsure of your exact location west of Arklow but if it's 2km west of the town, I would imagine you're probably around 50m or more ASL. I stayed in Glenart castle several years ago. It's approximately 2km or a little more westish of Arklow town and the castle itself is at about 50m ASl but the land quickly ascends from thereon with the west end of the estate being around 100m ASL and it rises quickly after that.

Still, it's a rare thing to witness such a transition over such a short distance.

Billcarson · 15-02-2022 4:12pm

Personally I have more interest in these type of weather events in early winter. At this stage In the winter and how poor winter its been ,I find the upcoming weather all a bit meh ,suffering from a lack of interest.

Donegal Ken · 15-02-2022 4:21pm

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Through Thursday night and Friday morning, Storm Eunice will track eastwards over Ireland. It has the potential to be a multi-hazard and disruptive event with damaging winds, heavy rain and snow possible.
Current indications are that the strongest winds are most likely to affect southern counties and the most significant falls of snow are most likely over central and northern parts of the country with locally blizzard conditions possible for a time and disruption to travel.
Warnings will be issued on Wednesday morning and updated on Thursday morning.
Valid: 14:50 Tuesday 15/02/2022 to 15:00 Friday 18/02/2022
Issued: 14:50 Tuesday 15/02/2022
Updated: 15:50 Tuesday 15/02/2022

Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

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Weather Advisory for Ireland

Weather Advisory for Ireland