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How can we integrate Unionism into a possible United Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This is your usual dog with a bone, tunnel vison way of scaremongering, pension discussions will be part of wider negotiations and will not, either here or in Scotland be negotiated in isolation.

    If the UK decide to welch on the national insurance contributions made to them that will affect wider agreement on a settlement. I would expect a mutually beneficial outcome on all this stuff. Here's an article, noticeably not trying to scare, that weighs up the pros and cons fairly.

    Who pays the State Pension in an independent Scotland? | FAI (fraserofallander.org)



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,265 ✭✭✭jh79


    If 479.5 equates to 16.7% of expenditure then total spend is 2871 million or 2.9bn

    So the fund is 1.7bn short?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Again, you are misunderstanding the point.

    There are now two funds - a NI fund and a GB fund. The treasury doesn't need to grant-aid the NI fund because the GB fund does it for them.

    The transfer from the GB fund to the NI fund was in the order of £660m. We don't have that to hand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Yawn, you can't disagree with the facts, so you call me a dog with a bone.

    The UK won't be welching on anything, all they will be doing is a technical adjustment and stopping the rebalancing of the funds. We will be given that NI fund, all £1.2bn of it and told to work away. As it needs funding of £660m a year, in addition to existing contributions, we will get two years before we have to fill the hole. That is the maths.

    Of course, if we lower national insurance contributions to Irish levels, we will run out of money quicker.

    Thems the facts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Why are you repeatedly making a fool of yourself?

    Go down to page 21 and look at the table to Note 3.

    See the bit at the top of the numbered columns - it reads £000 not £.

    That means the 564,400 figure isn't 500k, but 564m. This is basic stuff.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,618 ✭✭✭✭downcow




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Blanch, there will be a negotiated settlement on these things, which as my link says are 'complex' and not really for randomers trying to score political points on a forum.

    Why you want to now characterise the British as people who welch on pensions while tomorrow you will be imploring us to accept that they are morally upstanding, eludes me.

    You read a Tory scaremongering and jumped to the keyboard.

    P.S. I have no idea of the figures and wouldn't waste my time concerning myself about them, I just compared the figure mentioned to what the taxpayer gives to a single TV programme.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,618 ✭✭✭✭downcow



    What sectarianism are you referring to here?

    This type https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-dog-catcher-the-terrorist-and-the-dark-history-of-sinn-fein

    I'd imagine that there will be no need to fly any flags in what will be the former NI. As we are really not big into flags in the south, I imagine that no one will notice whether there is a flag flying over the Dail or not.

    I guess it will be like City Hall in Belfast. No one noticed the flag on it until intolerant Republicans decided it should be removed. If unionists succeeded in removing the flag flying over the Dail, I think people would notice then

    Is this to do with abuse?

    simply a reference to when the Boys Brigade want to walk in a group Northern Ireland they must apply to the parades commission

    I don't know of any workplace in Ireland who would want to hang a portrait of the President of Ireland in it (probably down to the fact that the President isn't a lifetime job).

    I imagine Leinster House, the Dail or the place the current one lives, potentially has a photo or two of past presidents. if you had a unionist on the workforce in any of those buildings, then if you want to follow the Northern Ireland model, the photos would need to be removed and the worker would be paid £10,000 for offence caused

    If there is demand for it, yes. (and Ulster Scots is a dialect, not a language).

    it has been accepted by everyone that there is no demand for it in Stormont, yet it costs a small fortune ensuring it is available. I guess the same would apply. .....and your beloved EU states that it is a language not a dialect - i thought they new best

    We do all of those things (and like you, pay through the nose for Sky tv etc). Only issue I'd have is with the size and scale of the bonfires - they are an environmental hazard. I'd be all for small community bonfires at the end of the street - like they were originally.

    the bonfires were removed from the end of each street because it was causing damage to the roads. The environmental hazard is a complete red herring. These bonfires are mainly lit by kids in very disadvantaged areas once a year. I can assure you their carbon footprint is negligible compared to middle-class nationalists and unionists who fly off each year on holidays and drive their gas guzzlers and eat their avocado. But sure let's have a kick at the wee barstewards anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The Parades commission cleaned up loyalist/unionist 'culture'. (still a ways to go)

    The point being, you can march, and burn if you want as long as it is where it is wanted and within the law.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    The GFA and its outworkings are the blueprint for dealing with the belligerent aspects of unionism in a UI. There will be elements within (former) unionism that will seek to cause as much trouble as they can in a UI, that will need to be contained in the northeast as per the parades commission.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,618 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Exactly the problem I pointed out earlier. Your community will never move on and address its sectarianism until you recognise there is a problem. Most (not all) unionists except we have still more to do to deal with prejudice, sectarianism, etc within. Most nationalists have still to get to square one in this regard. There are deep reasons for this including that they don’t want to face up to the fact that the ira was primarily a sectarian terrorist machine. SF can’t break free from them but are also a reminder of their horrible past (and current).

    Here is just a wee local example of the first three posts I find today when I search Facebook for me local Sinn Fein branch

    here is my MLA

    Here is my MP

    And here is the branch local sf post

    Bear in mind these are all remembering members of the local group who murdered the Protestant community and terrorised their own community- ‘remembered with pride’

    this would be a starting point to welcome unionists into a UI - stop voting for sf until they move into the 21st century

    NB you can check the credibility of what I am saying. Search ‘south down Sinn Fein’ on Facebook and see what my small terrorised unionist community is represented by politically. Bit of work to do guys to welcome us



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    There are millions of ghosts of ordinary people in the history of Ireland and the vast vast majority of them are not unionists but rather the victims of unionist/colonial depravity. Your little Orange statelet is the arse-end of the colonial project to subordinate the natives, the sooner it's consigned to history the sooner we can all move on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Said this many times.

    Everyone in Ireland has to have a conversation about how their dead are remembered and celebrated/commemorated. This is a divided post conflict society after all. There will be 'two' sides for a long time to come and ways have to be found to acknowledge and deal with that.

    I suggest we don't listen to or tolerate those who only want to point fingers hypocritically on these issues to begin with.

    I.E. Those who will glorify/celebrate Michael Collins or Connolly or the beginings of this state...nor those who glorify what the British did...nor those who point the finger at nationalists while portraying racists and bigots on bonfires as misguided young 'barstewards' or taunting/intimidating parading as their 'culture' or who will try to dilute what happened on Bloody Sunday etc. The list goes on and nationalists have to address these issues to.

    The point here is, this is an issue to be addressed by the entire people of Ireland, this is not something that is only deliverable to Unionists. Unionists have much to do in this regard as well.

    Respect and tolerance can be given to respectful and non confrontational remembrance. Far as I can see it is the only way forward and a healthy way forward.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    So we have moved from the position that we don't have to worry about the cost of the pensions to a position that it will be a negotiated settlement. I think it was important to show that your original position was completely untenable so the discussion has been useful, and not about scoring political points but about establishing facts.

    I particularly note that you haven't challenged a single one of the facts set out in my earlier post.

    As for the British welching on pensions, that is your language originally. In my opinion, they won't be welching, all they will be doing is continuing the practice that current revenue pays for current pensions. The hole in the NI fund depends on largesse from elsewhere. The British will have no future responsibility for that hole (as current revenue pays for current pensions), Ireland will have that responsibility.

    As for the figures, the fact that you and your colleagues were out by a factor of 1000 only clarifies the lack of understanding.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I linked you to an article that rationally states that this is more complex than taking the word of a Tory minister you aligned yourself with.

    Again...I wasn't 'out' by anything, I merely compared a figure mentioned to a taxpayer subsidy to an RTE programme.


    And finally, the poster who loves the high moral ground would say that about the British reneging (welching) on their responsibilities. Your form of words is just another way of saying it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    The IRA was not "primarily a sectarian terrorist machine" the majority of people killed by the IRA were the security forces, only 30% of IRA victims were civilians, the civilian figure includes politicians, security guards, judges, former members of the security forces etc

    Post edited by Harryd225 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Harryd225


    Nonsense, we don't need to stop celebrating/commemorating all those who fought for Irish freedom the last few hundred years, Unionists will just have to accept that they are part of our history like most countries celebrate those who fought for their independence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Are you continuing to waffle or are you going to address the four facts I identified earlier. Here they are again, if you have forgotten them already.

    (1) There is no centralised fund, pensions have been separated between NI and rUK

    (2) The system is pay as you go, not a big pot of money sitting in Westminister

    (3) The NI fund is subsidised by the rUK fund to the extent of £660m

    (4) There is no legal obligation to continue this subsidy in the event of a united Ireland

    Do you disagree with any of those facts?

    No point have an opinion unless we agree on the facts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,492 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The four points are correct, but there's a couple of important comments that need to be added in order to avoid a possibly misleading impression.

    With regard to point 4, "there is no legal obligation to continue this subsidy in the event of a United Ireland" is true but trivial. There is no legal obligation to do anything in the event of a United Ireland; laws to effect the unification of Ireland and address its consequences have yet to be enacted by either the UK or Ireland. If there is going to be a united Ireland the necessary laws will have to be enacted, and this is one of the many, many questions they will have to address. The fact that they don't already address it tell us precisely zero about how they will address it, if and when they are enacted.

    So, basically, I'd leave point 4 out of this list. It really doesn't add any meaningful information, and risks creating a seriously misleading impression.

    On point 3, the NI fund is subsidised by the UK fund now, but that doesn't tell us anything immutable or eternal about any subsidy that might be required in the future. NI's story for the past hundred years - since the foundation of the statelet, in fact - has been one of steady economic decline, relative both to Ireland and to GB. NI's current inability to finance its own pension obligations is not unrelated to its dismal economic performance, and its dismal economic performance is not unrelated to the effects of partition, which has left NI with all the economic disadvantages both of a frontier region (borders are economically depressing things) and of being the most remote region of the state to which it belongs.

    I'm not suggesting that NI will miraculously become an economic powerhouse a week after reunification, but we certainly can't assume that the £660m transfer that the national insurance fund currently requires will continue indefinitely, even when NI's economic situation is altered by the end of partition.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Of course we can't assume that the £660m transfer will continue indefinitely.

    However, firstly, my understanding (and I can be corrected on this) is that social insurance contributions in the UK are higher than in Ireland, and that therefore decreased rates would increase the amount required. Secondly, the pension in the South is higher than in the North and increasing it to harmonise would also increase the amount required.

    Therefore, as it stands, the £660m would be likely to rise significantly in the immediate aftermath of unification. Over a longer time-period, say 30 years, things may change as you suggest.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    That is the salient point that blanch on a new hobbyhorse is refusing to grasp, or willfully refusing to grasp.

    What will emerge will be a negotiated settlement of pensions and other financial issues - all of them interconnected and complex as a result.

    He'll pre-empt it all with scaremongering and soapboxing though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Well, at least we have got you to the point where you accept that the NI fund is subsidised by the rUK fund to the extent of £660m, that NI cannot finance its own pensions and that there is no obligation on the rUK to continue this subsidy, so pensioners would be wise to be concerned about their future pension arrangements.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,265 ✭✭✭jh79


    Wonder what the breakdown of voting intentions of pensioners are in the polls? I suspect they already are worried.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is the sort of issue that gets legs in a referendum if it isn't sorted in advance.

    The hippy fantasy of everything being right on the night is Brexit on steroids and if people are actually serious about a united Ireland rather than sloganising to build support for Sinn Fein, then we need to get down to these detailed discussions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You better get on with the detailed discussion then...with those who will negotiate these and agree these things.

    It's the kind of thing that can backfire badly too and the British would know this only too well. I'd imagine a lot of ex-pats or those intending to be and their unions might be very interested.

    Be good to hear Unionists on this, would a refusal to pay their pensions be seen as a repudiation of their Britishness?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,265 ✭✭✭jh79


    I dunno Francie, can't see the average person in England giving a dam that those in NI will no longer get a pension when it is in the very specific context of a change in sovereignty.

    I'd see more logic in them paying the pensions just to be rid of NI as it's cheaper in the long-term anyways.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I am not talking about the average person. I am talking about union leaders and opposition MP's.

    And I agree, there is little point trying to pre-empt these discussions until they happen. It is far more complex than a bit of partitionist scaremongering on foot of reading a bit of Tory bullying.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,789 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    What have unions got to do with social insurance pensions?

    They are only interested in employee pensions.

    Once again, you dismiss with personal insult rather than informed content.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I normally inform myself before making a comment blanch. Trade Unions are involved in state pension discussions. What 'personal insult'?



    CONFERENCE ON THE STATE PENSION - Early Day Motions - UK Parliament



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,265 ✭✭✭jh79


    Pensions were highlighted prior to that British politician bringing it up. Sure, Fitzgerald raised it first.

    It's not on the horizon now anyway but still no point burying your head in the sand. If we ever get close to a UI these types of discussions will happen whether you like it or not.



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