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Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

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    #272
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,463 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641042#Comment_118641042

    Not much on that one model I was describing.

    More generally it would be a coup for the BBC if their track proved exactly right but it's basically model consensus for a storm that as of right now is hardly even a ripple of low pressure, being worked over by those very strong upper level winds I mentioned. Realistically, a lot of different options are on the table and I would not wish to commit to anything too definite, it's not just track that is uncertain, but intensity has ranged considerably on different models, not all of the outcomes are major storms (for anybody). It likely will be, for some regions, but this isn't like Ophelia where we were dealing with something already in existence at 48 hours (and many days before that) with only a relatively narrow range of outcomes that might occur. We're dealing with a much bigger set of unknowns here. I don't feel bad about saying that we can't really predict today what will happen with Eunice, you can see that Met E have taken that approach too with their "watch this space" yellow preliminary alert. You know that's going to evolve into something more specific, but nobody really knows what.



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    #273
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Waterford, Galway, Wexford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Storm Eunice will bring severe and potentially damaging winds, gusting up to 130km/h, higher in exposed areas. Some disruption is expected along with a possibility of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 05:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 11:00 Friday 18/02/2022

    Issued: 16:36 Wednesday 16/02/2022



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    #274
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,162 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    Is this looking stronger then storm Barra last year?

    That was intense in Waterville (SW Kerry). I'll be out of town for a few days and slightly worried about wind/power loss etc...with my wife/baby.



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    #275
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,037 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Waterford, Galway, Wexford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Storm Eunice will bring severe and potentially damaging winds, gusting up to 130km/h, higher in exposed areas. Some disruption is expected along with a possibility of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 05:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 11:00 Friday 18/02/2022

    Issued: 16:36 Wednesday 16/02/2022



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    #276
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642097#Comment_118642097

    and here we go!!!



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    #277
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,915 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Had a vicious shower in Galway and my weather station was recording gusts of 65mph



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    #278
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,669 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The latest UKMO run nudges the track a bit further south so brings more counties in to the frontal snow band - Ulster, Connaught, Midlands and down towards the southwest.

    Still to be nailed even this far out.

    The issue is that a relatively small change in the track and depth of the system synoptically has a comparatively large impact at the more macro local level. It's the difference between storm and gales and rain or snow.

    Very tight margins. That keeps us guessing.



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    #279
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,463 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A tendency to edge north on both the GFS and GEM (it has not updated on some sites but I just saw the home base version). Think it would be closer to orange than red for wind warnings on south coast, not quite the worst case scenario on these two anyway.

    Snow is largely confined to Connacht and Ulster, higher ground in southeast. Keep in mind that a strong storm coming in from the southwest within 36 hours of record warmth is not the way most snowstorms evolve and it should not come as a shocker if there are last minute changes to a more northward track and a more robust warm sector for Eunice. There could still be cold winds and mixed precip after the low passes in that scenario though.



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    #280
    adocholiday
    Registered Users Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    I know it's early days but given the models are aligning with the more northern track what are the likely wind impacts here? Red warning for SW, Orange for rest of Munster/SE Leinster, Yellow for everywhere else? Some of those UK forecasts are showing 160kph winds for the SE.



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    #281
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,669 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Arpege similar to the UKMO and ICON with the track further south and thus more of the country in the snow zone. That's 3 more favorable for wider spread snow.

    Bit of a split between the Euro and North American models on that track which makes a huge difference to the outcome.

    Eagerly awaiting the ECM this evening.



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    #282
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Had the heaviest hail shower a few minutes ago, some lightning with it but couldn't hear thunder



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    #283
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,669 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The highest res models now coming in to view and Arome is the 4th to maintain a bit more southerly track similar to ICON, Arpege and the UKMO


    Untitled Image

    There is little doubt despite the GFS that the risk of widespread snowfall is increasing overall on this afternoons output. Let's see what happens overnight.



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    #284
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    As usual it's excessive ramping from Kermit.

    None of the recent runs suggest anything but mixed precipitation at major population and road network elevations. We're talking about sleet and hail and embedded squalls, all of which will be disruptive enough in gale force winds and not advisable to drive or operate machinery in, but any heavy snowfall will be confined to 300m, maybe 250m in the right circumstances and all short lived, in any event. Glenshane Pass, Sally Gap type stuff.

    This will be a notable event, but for high wind impacts over a relatively short window, not for snowfall, don't be fooled otherwise.



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    #285
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,008 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642430#Comment_118642430

    It's a bit excessive I agree but it's all part of the fun. You have no idea if your prediction will come to pass just as you have no idea if Kermit's will, nobody can be certain of anything.



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    #286
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    I would love to know on what model you based this forecast @Larbre34 , this is a very complex situation the low hasn't even formed yet.



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    #287
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Very blustery evening across southern Laois, wind speeds of 25mph (40kmh) and gusting much harder... top gust 51mph (82kmh).



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    #288
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,669 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642481#Comment_118642481

    The Mystic Meg model

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642474#Comment_118642474

    There is absolutely nothing excessive at all about any of my posts. It's reflective of my interpretation of the model output. Other's are can give their own interpretations, and they do.



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    #289
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642481#Comment_118642481

    If you don't understand how a low that hasn't formed yet, is being described by every weather scientist in Western Europe, then I can't teach you about modern meteorology in one post.

    So two words, charts and experience.



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    #290
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I'm sick of the wind already and we haven't even got to Friday yet. The following week could also be fairly disturbed. Hoping for a much quieter March.



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    #291
    Mech1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,098 ✭✭✭Mech1


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642430#Comment_118642430

    I don't know much about this forecasting lark, but does anyone else wanna pin their colours to the mast?

    That's pretty deffo from Larbre.



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    #292
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Screenshot_20220216_180043_com.android.chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20220216_180035_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Half of the UK in an Amber warning winds of possible 100mph



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    #293
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642509#Comment_118642509

    No thank you I've enough experience, thanks for the offer anyhow



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    #294
    cheezums
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭cheezums


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642514#Comment_118642514

    Snowpocalypse. Chalk it.



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    #295
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642525#Comment_118642525

    How come the uk warnings differ so much to ours? 100mph we’d be told go into the basement and don’t come out here…



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    #296
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,940 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Met Eireann asleep at the wheel on this! Evelyn must be on a week off!!



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    #297
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,151 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    In fairness to Met E, tomorrow morning is probably fine to get proper warnings out. Right now, like the rest of us, they don't have enough clarity to give precise warnings.



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    #298
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,151 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Just looking at the ECM, at one frame it's a few hundred miles west of Ireland, in the next frame (24 hours later) its in Scandinavia. This will be a very shortlived affair however potent



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    #299
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,940 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642591#Comment_118642591

    Yes good point very quick to move through



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    #300
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,362 ✭✭✭esposito


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642552#Comment_118642552

    I disagree. Still a lot of uncertainty. They have put out orange wind warnings so I don’t know what you’re on about.



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    #301
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,743 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I have a feeling given its rapid development that this system will track further north in the end, so any settling may be confined to higher levels, with a mess of sleet and wet snow at lower levels. The likes of Knock Airport could be fun on Friday Morning. I think Friday Afternoon into the evening is when we might have a better chance of seeing the white stuff at lower levels.



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