Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

My phone is still saying 20cm of snow tomorrow. I don't care either way. Been stung too many times to even care. Phone also says winds of 82kts in Southwest. Its sourcing its info from ECM I think.

The weather is like a pretty girl that ya go "ah she's the one" and then at the end of the first date she says "I think we'd be better as friends" and you say "but I'm not looking for a friend" and then there's an awkward silence from the weather.

Icon just coming out also less intense

Thats met eireanns forecast as of now.....

Rain overnight, and windy tomorrow morning ?

HArdly as dramatic as being made out in some places ?

145 km/hr gusts in Cork and Kerry. That's clear red isn't it? And right at morning commute time.

06Z analysis. Still an open low just north of the Azores, with a very cold northwesterly airflow to its northwest, as evidenced by the showery troughs and cold cloudtops in the latest IR sate image.

Midnight tonight, 974 hPa off our southwest coast, already occluding so a northward shift of track possible.

12Z tomorrow, already peaked as only 5 hPa lower than 12 hours before.

oh lol

I heard Gerry whatshisface from ME a few mins ago saying some of the orange warnings are likely to become red. Hardly nothing. Just because your back garden isn’t going to be affected.

if the storm is much less intense than expected then, yes, ICON got intensity right - but it looks like it got the track wrong. All week it had the eye of the storm missing Ireland completely to the south but even it is no longer showing that.

It'll have long blown through by then, even at Leeds, should be a pretty unremarkable cool and breezy February night

We really seem to be dodging a bullet with the strongest winds being overnight for us when most people will be inside anyway which is great. It feels like we often dodge a bullet with these thankfully, while I'm an avid storm lover I'd rather these severe winds not be as bad as expected.

So this is all up in the air.. from what I can gather this morning, nobody has a notion as to what’s going to happen tomorrow, you’ve a few here saying it won’t be too bad then you’ve Carlow Weather and Met Éireann saying possible upgrades on the way..

I had to look up LBA so you're right!

D

Wouldnt be surprised if Clare is added red

I wouldn't want to second guess the red level alert because I'm pretty sure it would verify somewhere in both counties, but I have the feeling we will have a variety of posts during the event from those counties saying "very bad here" and "not much here" and that's mostly down to the interaction of a westerly to northwesterly wind with the complex terrain. If you live in those counties you'll probably know from past experience how exposed you are to that wind direction (think of Darwin for example). The difference with Darwin on current model runs is that Darwin was a bit further north which allowed those very strong winds into Limerick and the inland south. It will be more confined to coastal regions with Eunice, unless guidance changes.