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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭DataDude


    My perspective is in commuter belt where dynamics are different I guess. However have seen many articles over last while citing how the sub €1m market was hot in 2021 and the €1m+ was scorching. Global phenomenon too, not just here.

    Id assume it’s because LTI limits are less of a factor and the boom in equity prices are more relevant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭J_1980


    i guess mostly depends on the property. But the absolute main driver is build costs and that mostly affects lower priced new-builds and fully done up settled area houses (as refurb costs are up even more and availability limited).

    right now everything is very limited unless ground floor apartments are your thing.

    Still think some city center apartments offer decent vfm

    turn key condition, C1 BER, 4600eur/sqm, super central, Can keep for life as good rental (3bed near google etc.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,507 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I pointed out the issues with REITs 5+ years ago. I disagree with there tax status. However I can see there use in the building if apartment blocks. Most Apartment blocks cost in the 30-80 million euro to fund. Can developers fund them completely I am not sure. Even after completion they may have to wait 6-12 months before all units are sold.

    Units may be pre sold without the same being completed until after the block is completed. After the noughties we lost a number of larger developers. I am not sure if we have that many left that can complete 50+ million projects off there own bat.

    It is not necessarily that the block is sold but that an agreement to purchase is entered into by a pension fund. This may then allow developments to happen faster.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Inflation down 0.4% month on month and would be down 0.9% if the minimum pricing of alcohol was not introduced.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,039 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    It is definitely a hot market between 1.3 and 2m along the cost for sure, foxrock has lost a lot of its appeal in recent years so i wouldnt use that as a yardstick.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    In addition to the lunacy of the tax situation, we also have the state in effect underwriting the investment funds activity though enhanced long term leasing

    There is a place for investment funds however they should be restricted to urban apartment developments that they fund and pay taxes similar to domestic landlords on profits and subject to capital gains

    If you have inflation at 10% in housing and access to finance at 0%. The effective cost of finance is - 10%.

    They have enough incentives provided by central banks and a dysfunctional property market.

    It stinks of political party's putting the party before the country another parallel with the celtic tiger bust and reminiscent of the incredibly poor value public private partnerships



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt




  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Same goes for lots of Terenure and even some parts of Rathgar. College square in Terenure, the houses that sold in 2021 were not “crazy” prices.

    Itsthe tech couples buying and they want to be on the dart, ie scd and malahide are booming. Further inland it’s a tricky commute.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    What do you think the cost of Finance would be for the largest investment funds for a project that has state guaranteed income for 30 years at 4 to 5% return, is inflation hedged and the building has to be handed back in the original condition it was handed over.

    Bare in mind that state bonds were returning negative rates in the same time period



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,978 ✭✭✭optogirl




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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    I would imagine that the finance cost to build would be 4-6% if risk was low due to pre purchase of apartments and 6-8% otherwise



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    The PAC heard that when rental subsidies, HAP and the Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS) are taken into account, roughly 90,000 households were in receipt of State assistance in 2021, with HAP and RAS between them costing €721m.

    Number of HAP tenants to increase to 72,000 this year





  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Would an investment fund not have other peoples capital and use that to get a return therefore the cost of Finance is effectively 0

    Or

    Could they issue bonds paying (for example) 0 to 2% to fund the project(s)

    Or

    Have I got the business model all wrong



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    The logical conclusion to this policy is that ultimately, at some stage, the entire rental market will be socialised. At this stage I'm thinking that is ultimately the goal.

    As a capitalist, this is not what I want to see but this is a FF and FG policy to create a corrupt two tier society of the ultra wealthy and the underclass. It is where we are headed undoubtedly so long as housing costs do not fall materially (rental market correction of 40% would be a current best guess for some sort of sustainability or else we're heading for a rental market socialist dystopia).



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    investors in the fund will be expecting a return on their investment so their is a cost of capital regardless of business model. I believe this is around 4-6% where there would be minimal risk and 6-8% if risk of selling properties exists.

    The fund could issue bonds but there would be issuance costs and rating agencies fees etc… that would need to be taken into account and the bonds would be investment grade bonds so would attract a higher yield than 0-2%.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sure is getting crazy out there….

    London’s smallest microflat up for sale at £50,000 for 7 square metres

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/17/londons-smallest-microflat-up-for-sale-at-50000-for-7-square-metres?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    It is expected to go for more as it was bought for £103,500 in May 2017.



  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭J_1980


    No one bats an eye in London. Here Ruth coppinger and their ilk would be up in arms.

    ”Jacinta and little jayden need a city centre 3bed semi to be near maaaa and nana…”



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,978 ✭✭✭optogirl


    You don't think people should be up in arms about that bullshi*?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves



    Yes I agree.

    Institutional money - which is hand in glove with Western governments - is hoovering up single-family houses, quickly turning this nation and other nations into renter’s debt slave prisons.

    UBI has been trialled with PUP and its equivalents in other countries.

    In the future everything will be rented or allocated and that is the WEF scheme ("You will own nothing and be happy"). Although most people would rather cut their own arm off than believe in a conspiracy theory.

    I expect also that onerous ad valerom taxes (incl. property taxes), mandatory "carbon-friendly" renovations and increasing costs of materials will make it more difficult for people to hold onto their existing homes. Perhaps there will be a scheme to sell them to the government in return for an "allocated" space.

    QE could be replaced by a new monetary system (after a crash?) using digital blockchain credits.

    All speculation obviously.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Some sort of Green Bond issued by States and bought by the ECB will be QE under a different name, unless the ECB can be taken down a peg or two. I think what will happen is that we will have populist and protest votes more and more in Ireland. It is the people that vote, not the funds and that is something that cannot really be controlled in Ireland like it can be in the US. It wasn't that long ago that SF were openly anti-EU and even the Irish people have form in rejecting EU treaties. For me, it's all down to housing; let people put a roof over their head through work and, with their health in good order, they have the foundation of a comfortable and fulfilling life.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭J_1980


    If way more people want to live in London than there are houses/flats what is your idea to solve it?

    the most logical is smaller homes and higher prices. No one has a birthright to a residence in a place of choice. This is insanely anti meritocratic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭J_1980


    IRES reit is already down 12% from the January high.

    FB is -45% back to 2018 levels.

    ”Tech wreck” is the only reason I could possibly see to weaken the Irish property market (at least in 600k+ market): high earning tenants losing pay/jobs and Irish government losing revenue in billions which will force some sort of austerity as I simply can not see any party raising taxes further without obliterating itself [ taxes on high income earners as SF propose raise 1.25bn, nothing if you have to cut 5bn]



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The plot thickens. I thought this was a prank when first posted




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The return on investment comes in the form of rents - investors pay the capital, and get part of their dividend paid out from rents extracted from newly acquired properties. They aren't paying the cost of finance as such - a developer has to raise funds and then pay back interest on those funds at time of sale. REIT never repays the capital, the hold onto assets and pay "interest"/dividends from rents



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,521 ✭✭✭wassie


    But in London, Sean who lives in an NHS care home believes property guardianship is only attractive because "it exists in a market that is already broken".

    Not a prank, evidence of our dyfunctional market. Im all for repurposing buildings, but using old commercial buildings as residential accommodations without the necessary upgrades is a slippery slope. When we start accepting reduced standards for accommodation by commercial operators (regardless of motive) it can quickly become normalised and the most vulnerable in society bear the brunt.

    We are seeing this at the other end of the scale also with the co-living concept that is described by developers as an "innovative solution for todays property market" (again which is completely dysfunctional). Complete bollox.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    The €475,000 48 SQM Clontarf bungalow were the estate agent needed to scoot around the bed to reach the back garden has gone sale agreed





  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I think the market has got this way via different decisions made over the last 2 decades. It seems that our supposedly middle of the road governments that have been in power over the last 20 years have given handouts and special treatment to both our lefties and our righties and to their own species. I honestly believe that those in power think that if they give something to the left they have to give something to the right in order to balance it out and make it look like they are in the center when it comes to their political stand point. Yet what people here don't understand or have failed to connect the dots too is that it is those of us in the middle paying for the lot and they get phuck all in return. Our services and infrastructure is getting worse by the day. What our taxes paid for 20 years ago no longer pays for same even though we are paying a hell of lot more in taxes (e.g bin services, full use of all roads/no tolls, etc)

    So just a quick look at the headline decisions in our recent history that have played a huge part in our financial situation.

    To our Left

    Very high welfare

    preferential treatment to people who don't work for housing above those who are working

    The family home protected no matter what

    To the Right

    Bank bailouts

    REITS/Vultures preferential treatment.

    Corporation tax - why so low , why cant we as employees pay the same rate.

    Own Species/Public sector

    Bench-marking.

    Not one forced job loss during the crisis.

    Gold plated pensions that cant be touched - even do private pensions where robbed.

    No accountability.

    Until the unwashed masses that are our electorate (and I include myself as part of the unwashed) understand that its our perma-government that are the ones with the power not FF or FG and Sinn Fein will find this out when they get in that they cant unravel a system that has been in place since the beginning of the state. We need a serious over-haul of our public sector pensions system that rewards good public servants including politicians and people who look after their own interests or just clock watch get little or nothing. I have said on here before any government should cut the sh1t out and put up a 10 point plan of what they will implement and for every point they get implemented in their 5 years they get 10% of their allotted pension. I find it galling that some people in the system that have really phucked us over (Bertie ahern - take a bow my friend) are still getting more than most of us here who are working while in retirement all being paid for by us the tax payer and yet we are told this cannot be changed.

    Yet here we all are with landlords blaming tenants, tenants blaming landlords, People with houses telling those who have not got one to "save and stop spending", those without a house telling those with a house "sell your house for less than its worth its all for the common good" Yet every issue with the housing market can be laid squarely at those in government both those in power and those behind the scenes with the real power and yet we will continue to slam other sectors who have had no hand, act or part in where the housing market is today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    That buyer will have some hangover in the next two years.



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  • Posts: 257 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm in the Northwest and situation is dire here too. I live in an estate, where my husband grew up in. To say it is a very changed place from back then is an understatement. Half of the houses are rented now, there is little to no sense of community. I would say 80% of the rented houses are HAP and are completely screwing the system. One parent families (wink wink), childminders doing nixers and cash in hand workers.

    I'm generally an open minded person with a high enough tolerance but my taxes are going to fund this and I am sick of it.

    I agree that we need to reduce immigration substantially. Let's sort out the mess we already have in situ.

    One example...In my county's regional town two student apartment blocks were handed over to house 3 HUNDRED refugees. Two months later, we have stories about students who couldn't find any accommodation in the town and had to commute 2-3 hours to get to college each day. Absolutely no rationale.

    We are moving out of this estate soon and will be mortgaged up to our eyeballs for the rest of our days. I loathe to think where my children will live in the future.

    I can't wait to vote this government out.

    Something needs to change as regards Social Welfare payments, the whole Treasure Island thing. No one on SW should be better off than a working person.



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