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How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

2456761

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Ah, yes, your precious bicycles. I don't know what country you live in, but here in Ireland there is howling, gusty wind with horizontal rain, and it's been like that for the past 48 hours at least. Anyone on a bike not blown off the road or into the path of a sensible vehicle, has probably only avoided that fate due to being soaked to the core and thus weighing more.


    Ideal cycling conditions - if you're a seal.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,152 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    Boat trailer and engine is about 1200kg unloaded.

    Those ionic are awful looking things, one thing the EVs are is not good looking cars.

    All look very pedestrian.

    I'm probably considering another tiguan next time round, or a jeep of some sort.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,621 ✭✭✭celtic_oz


    Paying back the carbon debt

    However, it’s also possible to compare the vehicles over time, to see how long it would take to repay the initial “carbon debt” incurred by the production of a carbon-intensive battery pack for EVs. For example, as already noted above, a new Nissan Leaf EV bought in the UK in 2019 would have lifetime emissions some three times lower than the average new conventional car. Looking at this over time, in the figure below, shows that while the battery causes higher emissions during vehicle manufacture in “year zero”, this excess carbon debt would be paid back after less than two years of driving.

    MPGe = Miles per gallon equivalent ( roughly estimated based on price of petrol and electricity )

    Renault Zoe = 180 MPGe = 1.31 L/100km

    Peugeot e208 = 170 MPGe = 1.38 L/100km

    At around 6pm, 22-1-22, wind was contributing less than 1% of the power required. Thank goodness for coal and gas.


    Gas is the preferred fuel now to help with fluctuations with renewables, it was never going anywhere, until we get more interconnectors and storage.

    However gas is expensive and future plans are to develop huge amounts of wind off the west cost ... sell it into the UK grid and drive the marginal cost of electricity in Ireland down at the same time, we are extremely fortunate to have such an abundance of energy AND car manufacturers are scaling up EVs such that they will be cheaper than ICE in a few years. Really helps with the security of supply also.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Not heavy enough to be an issue though, in terms of the fears for the road network that you pointed out.

    Given the huge increases that have occurred on the price of fuels and the future increases that will be coming from carbon taxes, what do you think is a viable answer seeing as carbon taxes are here to stay.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Polestar themselves have said that their 2 SUV can take as much as 201,000 km before there is a net positive benefit in terms of CO2 emissions over the equivalent petrol Volvo XC40. Obviously this would be even more if it was a comparison against diesel, and I don't even like diesels. Anyone that's thinking of buying an EV on the spurious grounds of saving the planet would be well advised to read this. In fairness, at least they've the courage to be honest about the supposed 'greenness' of EVs.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/analysis-polestar-lifts-lid-lifetime-ev-emissions



  • Registered Users Posts: 980 ✭✭✭harmless


    Are you changing this year? Other manufactuers will catch up with Hyundai, might not take as long as you'd expect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 645 ✭✭✭Killer K


    Not surprising but good to see it in black and white. Fair play at least to them for releasing that data. Laughed out loud when I read: VW "compensates for unavoidable emissions through climate protection projects”.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭con___manx1


    Oil prices will skyrocket if that war starts in ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭con___manx1





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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    VW once said that over 200,000 km, an e-Golf would have a net CO2 saving of just 13% over a 1.6 TDI Golf.

    I just watched a video from Nobby on Cars about the BMW iX. He found that it was using 28.6 kWh/100 km, which, at our current electricity mix (296 grams of CO2 per kWh in 2020 according to the 2021 SEAI report, 293 according to Our World in Data) means that really its CO2 emissions are 85 g/km, rather better than the 179 g/km you offically get in an X5 30d obviously, but a very long way from the zero emissions car we're lead to believe they are (in fairness, BMW never claims its EVs are zero emissions, more that they provide 'locally emissions free' driving - a very different thing).

    We have cleaner electricity than Germany (according to Our World in Data), in Germany your iX actually emits 86.1 g/km of CO2 at 28.6 kWh/100 km energy consumption, and believe it or not, the Netherlands is worse again, at 318 grams of CO2 per kWh this means in reality an iX is emitting 91 g/km. For comparison, a Toyota Yaris hybrid is officially rated at 98 g/km.

    If you live in Poland well you definitely should not be buying an EV to save the planet - at an intensity of 744 grams of CO2 per kWh your iX will actually emit more CO2 than the official rating of a 40i X5 with 3.0 litre straight six under the bonnet (the X5 40i has a CO2 rating of 209 g/km, at 744 g CO2 intensity, an iX will emit 213 g/km), never mind the diesel one!

    My source for all the claims on CO2 intensity can be found in the link below. The formula is finding out the real CO2 per km of the iX is easy: CO2 intensity (grams per kWh X 28.6, all divided by 100 since it's 28.6 kWh per 100 km):

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-intensity-electricity?tab=table



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,152 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    Not planning to change in the next couple years, but thinking about the future



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Electric (including PHEV's) overtakes diesel in new car sales for the first time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Today's CSO figures show that a total of 15,814 new private cars were licensed in January, a reduction of 6.7% on the same month last year."

    BEVs comprised 11.46% of car sales, but overall sales were down. Energy costs and Government 'Green' driven initiatives to bankrupt people appear to be working. Rich people can afford new EV's while many can't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,290 ✭✭✭Miscreant


    I think the 6.7% reduction might have more to do with global supply constraints than Energy Costs or Government 'Green' initiatives TBH. Also, quite a lot of cars these days are bought on credit, so being "rich" has little to do with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,859 ✭✭✭Duckjob



    As someone who loves his "sh1tbox" electric car, loves even more spending < €3 to drive it 200km+ , and relies on change-fearing folk to take the hit and keep the party going , I thank you 😀



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,260 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    Enjoy it while it lasts it won't be long before they start telling you to put virtual petrol into your electric car at €2-3 quid per virtual litre to combat falling motor tax revenue. No doubt this will also require the use of some Orwellian transponder



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Enjoy it while it lasts it won't be long before they start telling you to put virtual petrol into your electric car at €2-3 quid per virtual litre to combat falling motor tax revenue. 

    Motor tax is already flagged as going to be changed, nothing new there. They are looking at a number of options, including all or a combination of the following

    • Emissions
    • Annual mileage
    • Weight

    Its very likely it will be something like E+AM+W= Tax, with an exponential weighting applied to emissions and vehicle weight



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,260 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    So the Annual mileage part of it will be the virtual petrol. You won't be escaping any longer when they bring that in. In 10 years or less they'll be making a problem about "all these bloody privately owned EVs on the road" and "why don't they just use a driverless uber car instead?". There will be a number of incentives to get people into the driverless uber cars, they might even be cheaper than your EV for a couple of years until everyone switches over



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm not sure about your virtual petrol analogy but I agree there are plans afoot to dis-incentivize people from using their cars, regardless of fuels. Those initiatives are only gaining pace and increasing in cost and will continue to do so to motivate people to switch to alternate modes of transport.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,260 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious



    It would be better if we could get a government who accept that cars are here to stay. The EV crowd sniping at the Petrol crowd or vica versa isnt helping. We are all phukt if we just accept all the nasties they're lining up for us and allow their divide and conquer strategy to work. It would appear that a good few posters in here are not even aware that the government is plotting against all of us, or perhaps they are just turkeys voting for Christmas.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,028 ✭✭✭PsychoPete


    I'd say a big percentage of that is down to diesel not being available isn't it? There's still plenty of people that would buy a new diesel if you could get them. The dealer where I worked new car sales were 90% diesel and the rest petrol and evs until 2021 when they phased out diesel



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The dealer or the manufacturer phased out diesels?

    I know more manufacturers are moving away from ICE towards EV's with many stopping development on any new ICE development including Mercedes, Stellantis (Fiat/Peugeot/Citroen/Chrysler), Jag, Volvo, Ford (Euro), Audi/VW. These are instead focusing on EV development.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,573 ✭✭✭pajor


    As mentioned at the top of the thread, petrol here in the Netherlands has already reached €2/L here. Diesel getting close to €1.70 I saw €2.239 at the weekend even. Currently motor tax is free for EV's but that will end in 2025. From what I understand they're still looking at how to structure it then. Tax is currently based on fuel type and car weight. Government have been considering tax per KM's driven for a long time, implementing it is another story.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Self driving cars that don't require human oversight are not happening. Driving requires general intelligence and we'll reach another solar system before we manage that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,028 ✭✭✭PsychoPete


    Manufacturers I should have said but most manufacturers will have ice phased out by next year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 645 ✭✭✭Killer K


    Are things moving that quickly Pete? Thought you would be able to get a new ICE cars for a number of years yet but that manufacturers will just have stopped developing/enhancing them.

    I see that new vrt changes have already killed a number of ICE cars by just making them too expensive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭frosty123


    So will the downtrodden motorists get any joy tomorrow regards fuel duty?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 355 ✭✭walshtipp


    Looks like the motorist will not be saving from the governments cost cutting measures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 51,297 ✭✭✭✭bazz26


    Is anyone actually surprised? The motorist is the cash-cow that helps fund these type of schemes rather than benefit from them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,261 ✭✭✭Gant21


    They have doubled the esb bill thing how much more lube do you want?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 182 ✭✭Ahherelads2022


    Our employer offer's free charging point's. Is it a no brainer to pay for an EV? . The journey to work is about 30k so 60k per day.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Same, my place has about 16-20 charging points now I think. 2 years since I was onsite but I know they've expanded the qty they did have and yeah they're free to use



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Exactly. Nothing for folks who have no choice but to use a car for work and just life in general. People who live in cities and can use public transport have not had to deal with the cost of living crisis the way those who do big mileage or those living in rural Ireland have had to, so the solution the 'geniuses' in power have is to make it cheaper for those who weren't really feeling the squeeze anyway. And then they wonder why there is such ingratitude from the electorate.

    Of course the electricity credit and the other cost of living supports are welcome news but the price of petrol and diesel is clearly a big issue for people who have no choice to drive, and not one red cent of help there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,067 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    ya, wouldn't you think they'd suspend excise duty just temporally for a few weeks at least😕



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Motorists have never gotten any joy from an irish government - they are a cash cow to be flogged regularly, with n expectation theu show gratitude for it.

    Lets not forget heating also, the bleeps could lower the excise on heating oil too insted of trousering the massive windfall with big smiles. The politicians are loving this for the revenue windfall and are annoyed that they have to pretend to care and inconvenience themselves with making it look otherwise and coming up with some token gestures to placate the populace.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,221 ✭✭✭Glaceon


    I see the M1 services at Lusk have reached 1.80 for petrol this morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,067 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    and if the Ruskies go gaga in Ukraine the prices will go through the stratosphere 😕



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Whenever it happens it won't be fast enough for government. This is what governments do nowadays. They don't "ban" things, they just make it impossible for you and reduce your standard of living while doing it.

    Just like how they said to farmers that they won't make them cut any of their herd numbers, they'll just make it impossible for them to have the same herd size as now, i.e they might say you can only claim grants on a lower acreage now. So technically they're not forcing farmers to cut down, but really they are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭PaulJoseph22


    Indeed and electricity seems to have doubled in price. Government still taking their big cut though…



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Jaysus, I originally posted a time line of May/Jun to break 2 eur a liter but at the rate its going it could be a lot sooner




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,067 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    with no end in sight😕



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭malinheader


    Maybe I missed it but why are the hauling companies and lorry drivers not going ballistic and protesting. Are they getting subsidized or some concessions on fuel.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 665 CMod ✭✭✭✭LIGHTNING


    Well until EV's come down to a decent price I don't see them replacing ICE cars. I aint paying 10k for a clapped out old EV with knackered batteries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,772 ✭✭✭Dakota Dan


    So if someone has an oldish car that’s paid for you reckon if they buy a new ev car they’ll save money? If they lob out 35k plus 2k for the home charger that’s 37k @ this €2 a litre you are forecasting they’d buy 18500 litres of fuel, that’s a lot of driving.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 665 CMod ✭✭✭✭LIGHTNING


    I will get an EV at some stage but at the moment my 4k VW UP that barely uses fuel can do for the meantime.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 439 ✭✭mrm



    That looks like zero driving as you seem to have omitted in your costings the amount for a ANY car to take the fuel. Also, is there no value in having a nice new car? Your opining and car ownership maths appears to be built purely on begrudgery.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    One thing I have noticed with EV's and Boardsies who have them - Many of them can't seem to get out of them fast enough and move to the latest one that comes along. My x month old EV is so great I couldn't wait to sell it and buy the latest kid on the block.

    So inspiring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,772 ✭✭✭Dakota Dan


    What exactly are you trying to imply? I gave an example of basic maths to show how the op’s definition of saving money was flawed. If you read my post before putting your fingers in gear you’ll see that it’s an example using a car that is fully paid for, they do exist you know. Where the Hell did you get the begrudgery from?



  • Registered Users Posts: 439 ✭✭mrm


    In your example, one individual with a paid off car vs one individual sitting on 37k of a fuel stock (you didn't even calculate in the rising cost of the fuel and future value). I don't think your basic maths compared anything or exposed the OPs (scant) assertion on saving money. I am not sure why you excluded any value in your calcs in actually having a car, nevermind the value to someone of having a nice new car (some trade in so often it has great value to them, though it is difficult to add a monetary value for this). Apologies for the begrudgery comment, but I am struggling to see the genuine basis of your calculations- an apples and oranges/ car and fluid comparison.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,772 ✭✭✭Dakota Dan


    The op stated that if fuel goes to €2 a litre more people will buy EV’s to save in fuel that’s what my example is based on.



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