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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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A bit away and the models differ quite a bit yet but a chance of some windy weather next Weds.
ECM ,for now, keeping the strongest winds to the W /NW whereas GFS produces the strongest winds and bringing the deepening center of a fast moving small area of LP tracking over Ireland with ICON similar to GFS. Timings and track all over the place from early morning to the afternoon and from the afternoon until the evening so will need to see how it pans out.
Could produce some heavy rain for a time also.
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Blustery for a time on Tues and again on Weds ( GFS not showing the very strong winds as earlier runs ). Also Thurs looks blustery and ECM showing a disturbance going into Fri that could produce strong winds for a time but again this could get watered down on further runs.
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GFS 06z shows red warning conditions for West Mayo tomorrow morning. Granted it's the more extreme parts of the county but plenty of people living there, there isn't even a yellow warning on met.ie. GFS has been on the money for the last few events.
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Was surprised to see that too ascophyllum, all the models have upped the wind speeds overnight into early morning but the GFS is a bit of an outlier at this stage bringing the center of another deepening Low ( wave depression I would think ) much closer than all the other models at this stage anyway. But yes I think the GFS also has been performing quite well of late, the recent upgrades seem to be going fairly well. Would always rate it as being fairly accurate within 24hrs but the discrepancy in comparison to the other models has to be taken into account at this stage but that is not to say the other models wont lean towards the GFS in later runs , complex system and very fast moving aided by a very fast Jet. The next model out put will be interesting.
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ICON, ECM 06Z showing the offshore winds a lot stronger on this run, up to around 100 to 110 km/h along the Kerry, Galway and Mayo coasts for a time, highest in the West ,blustery overland and moving through quickly.
Rain overnight going through quickly, heavy showers following on Saturday. Showing high temperatures for a time in the early hours of Saturday morning, up to 15C! Temperatures falling back again on Saturday, will see if some of those showers are convective in nature , might be a bit blustery or squally at times, wouldn't be surprised if there was some hail showers if producing somewhat small hail size. Met Eireann saying chance of lightning along Atlantic counties also.
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GFS 12Z has pulled the strongest winds offshore, now more in line with the bunch, will see if the later charts are showing a bit stronger for the coasts.
Maybe some more counties getting warnings especially in the NW if just for a short duration of a few hours if the charts upgrade another bit, all happening overnight for the most part of course but still could prove rather windy for a time.
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Thanks for posting all those charts Meteorite, very useful. GFS 12z have pulled back max gusts to 114kmh in this part of Mayo, still warrants an orange though I would think.
I get these GFS numbers from windguru, I find they've been groundtruthing very well with the reports from the local stations.
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Happy new year everyone!😃
Need to keep an eye out for this low pressure system just to our south later Monday night/Tuesday
GFS and GEM develop this feature in a way where snow is possible on the northern flank of the associated fronts and southern and south eastern counties most at risk of that snowfall as it's coming up against the cold air from the north.
UKMO/ECM keep it further south avoiding the country altogether, mostly dry but notably colder for a time.
We shall see later if any moves either way...
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Monday night into Tuesday mornings feature now showing on the GFS and ECMWF model that rain turning to sleet and snow on the northern flank across Connacht and parts of west Munster. Freezing level down to around 400ASL. Will be interesting to see if there is any more changes over the next 24hours. Also a risk of some strong winds in coastal areas of the west and southwest.
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Yes a good test for the models in the upcoming bit of cold weather. GFS showing more in the Western half of the country, could be all very light and sleety in nature but the fact it is falling later in the night might help some snow in higher elevations it to stay on the ground for a time as the cold air settles in. Winds keeping the temperatures up along the coasts, could be frosty and possibly icy inland by Tues morning.
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Full on wintry weather Thurs into Fri. Blustery Front crossing the country early Thurs morning with a fresh unstable airflow following and dragging in much cooler air producing a large amount of wintry showers of hail rain sleet and increasingly to snow. Unstable enough for large convective weather producing heavy hail with thunderstorms and strong gusts quite possible. Becoming increasingly wintry towards evening with some considerable accumulations possible on elevated ground, enough to make driving very difficult overnight and into Fri morning. Charts below give an indication of where snow might accumulate. Most of the weather in the Western half of the country and coastal counties inland a bit probably getting the most wintry precipitation that might accumulate.
Very windy along the coasts, maybe warrants yellow warnings considering the combination of weather types , considerable Windchill so might be bringing the gloves to work with me 😀
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So looks like three stages to the upcoming spell of wintry weather beginning as the fronts crosse the country in the early hours possibly turning to sleet and snow in Northern areas as it runs into into cold air , how much will fall and when and if it transitions back to rain remains to be seen but more than likely a wet snow on lower levels for a time and decent amounts on higher ground .
Following the front will be a series of troughs and introducing the colder more unstable airmass with the 528dam line crossing the country. Here will turn to wintry showers during the day and increasingly to hail and possible thunderstorms and snow showers well into Thurs night / early Fri morning, some more prolonged wintry precipitation possible locally I would reckon.
Models now picking up what looks like another a more active trough crossing early Fri and or the beginning of an area of Lp which looks to bring more widespread snow, this is one to watch , I think the models might upgrade this more perhaps.
All the models showing different snow depth charts from nothing to a few cm's in places. I would think something like a cross between the ECM and the GFS would be a fair guide at this stage, maybe leaning towards the ECM. Very blustery for a time especially along the coasts and as the fronts crosses the country early morning.
12.00 Thurs
00.00 Fri
12.00 Fri
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Latest GFS run seems to want a small snow event in many midland areas from late tomorrow until afternoon, away from coastal areas. Possible ninja snow event, nothing too major if it did happen and I wouldn't hold my breath either.
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After the overnight frontal rain turning cooler and showery again, quite windy along the coasts and blustery for a time overland . Convective ability again tomorrow for hail showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. The 528dam line in over Ireland again . Showers becoming sleety, probably only real chance for any snow to settle would be on the highest ground like mountains and maybe some hilltops briefly but turning milder again early Sunday morning .
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After a rather chilly week with some cold zonality we appear to be heading into a relatively mild and settled spell of weather with high pressure taking over. This is a mild ridge to begin with but it may turn cooler as the week progresses. Tomorrow will be a very mild day with temperatures reaching 11 or 12C across the country and from Tuesday onwards daytime temperatures genearlly 5 to 9C, so nothing too mild or cold.
By Wednesday high pressure will be positioned right over us and there maybe a chance of some sunshine with clear skies at night, so patchy frost is possible from mid week but temperatures even at night may stay above freezing throughout the week until we get to next weekend.
With all this high pressure around there will be very little in the way of rain away from the north-west with most places seeing no more than 1 or 2mm of rain this week. Some places may stay completely dry over the next 7 days. By next weekend we will be exactly half way through this winter and will progress into the second half of winter during the 3rd week of January.
There is alot of uncertainty what happens after this Friday so I've decided to just talk about this weeks weather rather than try and focus what happens during the 3rd week of January.
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After the front goes through Thurs evening much cooler air moves in from the NW giving wintry showers and snow accumulations on Hills and mountains mostly in the NW and N and possibly some snow on high ground in the W. Blustery with some wintry showers along Atlantic coasts coasts, more so in the W, NW, N and possibly a bit breezy overland on Friday, temps look set to be maxing at 6 to 8C near the coasts in the SW, S and SE, much colder in the Northern third of the country, looks like good sunny spells for much of the country. Turning cold after dark with frost in sheltered places, temperatures rising from the W early Sat morning, turning milder as the day goes on .A breezy to blustery weekend in store at times, possibly quite wet during Sat into Sun morning and perhaps showers or some more prolonged rain in places on Sunday when Temperatures will be milder up around 10 - 12C.
Would expect some hail showers along the coasts, remains to be seen if there is enough instability to get a few isolated thunderstorms sparking near the coasts from early Fri. best chances would think in the NW and N.
Some decent rainfall accumulations showing up especially in the NW /N.
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Slow moving trailing front over us for much of the day tomorrow into Sunday when it should break up to showers and ease as the day goes on.
Quite windy tomorrow along the coasts and blustery overland , feeling cool in the wind. Not pleasant conditions with the wind blown rain.
Sunday looking very windy along Northern coasts and blustery inland slow to ease in the evening/ night, looking colder there now also then earlier charts were showing in fact could get wintry showers. Could have frosts Sun night into Mon morning.
Snow accumulations on high ground in Northern counties possible again on Sunday. Looks like a very raw day in Ulster.
Certainly more seasonal weather this weekend.
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Rainfall totals look to tot up again as we move into the early days of next week.
Rain spreading to most areas from the W tomorrow afternoon into Sat, highest rainfall totals in Atlantic coastal counties much less the further E , Galway and Kerry could get 10 to 15mm approx in 24 hrs.
Latest guidance showing Sunday to be quiet wet ( this is still evolving so may change, the chart below is the latest guide.
Monday looks mostly dry apart from some showers around the coasts until rain arrives towards evening in the W and currently looks like producing a of rain from later Mon into Weds ( Rainfall accumulation chart below past 120 hrs but have included up to early Weds morning as the rain begins within the +120hrs to give some kind of an indication of how wet the spell could be )
Model Map - Accumulated Total Precipitation (mm)
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Windy along the coasts and blustery overland during the frontal passage tomorrow into Sat. Less cold on Saturday and turning cold again on Sunday, maybe some sleet on Mountain tops, a bit of white on the Wicklow mountains perhaps.
Will see if it we get a blast of milder and very wet weather briefly brought up from the SW around next Tues into Weds.
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Still holding on to the very windy look for next Weds. The jet looks like whipping up a strong storm off the NW, strength over Ireland all down to the track.
Not much difference between the ECM, GFS and GEM.
GFS looks the strongest for now, UKMO a bit further out for now so keeping the strongest winds to the NW /W.
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ARPEGE on the upper end of the wind strength predications for Weds and ECM has backed off considerably on its latest output. GFS probably about in the middle for now. Some heavy rain also and turning to wintry showers more so in the NW later Weds into Thurs.
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Huge temperature swings this week. Getting up to around 15C on Weds and later getting cold very quickly in Northern counties and maybe just 8 or 9C on Thurs with a few white peaks on Mountains in the NW.
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Even at this stage there is a big difference between the models with regards to wind strength and direction for Weds.
UKMO showing the storm pivot and swing down close to the NW/ N bringing very strong winds with it whereas the ECM keeps the main momentum of the storm well off the N coasts. The difference is basically the forecast given by Met Eireann following more or less the ECM and if the UKMO was correct it would give Red warnings in the NW maybe N and lots of counties in Orange warning.
The ECM has more models leaning towards it like the ARPEGE and GFS although the GFS looks a bit stronger as those ICON but they are nothing like UKMO.
The only other model something similar to the UKMO is the GEM . We will see.
Whereas Fridays storm which could pass over us might be a relatively short severe storm event the winds from this storm which will be located to the North of the country and transiting the North of Scotland will produce strong winds for much of the day for most of the country, could get gusts 80 to 90 km/h country wide, strongest along W, NW and N coastal counties.
Might get Rainfall warnings too.
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ARPEGE 18Z is an outlier tonight, much less windy for Weds but too much of an adjustment to be correct I would think, GFS still strong enough giving gusts of up to 100km/h overland at times but for the most part gusting 80 km/h overland, looks to keep the highest gusts to around 110 km/h along the coasts.
Interesting is that ICON has upped the windspeeds and looking more like UKMO now brining the strong winds tracking back down over the NW/N, high end Orange in Donegal or will the charts upgrade again and going by these charts seeing more counties experiencing Orange level winds for a time.
I do think after a long lull in the weather the models can struggle a bit with coming to terms with more extreme weather events.
Don't trust the output until I see the ECMWF showing something similar.
As Met Eireann said warnings will be updated tomorrow. Any insider knowledge there Donegal Ken -are they taking UKMO serious I wonder ??
A lot of rain predicted tomorrow and Weds ( on top of already squelchy ground ).
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Certainly looks like a good chance of snowfall to the northwest of the low centre Thursday night/Friday morning. Good upper dynamics in place causing mass uplift and cooling of the air column. Strong thermal gradient in place, so some will get snow while others get rain.
Latest upper air soundings from NE Canada overnight show a frigid airmass in place, while just offshore, a ship's sounding showed a 21-degree difference in 850-hPa temperature in a short distance. This is the birth zone of Dudley.
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Yeah in general been downgrading the winds, nothing too severe but long spell of good blustery weather, might be some locally very strong winds under a squally shower, AROME ids showing the tell tale signs of some squalls going through which could produce some locally very high winds for short duration.
Again the ECM and ARPEGE on it much quicker than UKMO and ICON , UKMO still showing strongwinds in the NW and along the coasts but it looks like it is overdoing it .
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