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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
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lot of rainfall between now and later Sunday, might need to add other counties along the Atlantic.
- Met Eireann :
Status Yellow - Rain warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo
- Met Éireann Weather Warning
- Persistent rain followed by heavy showers will lead to localised flooding in places.
- Valid: 16:00 Saturday 19/02/2022 to 16:00 Sunday 20/02/2022
- Issued: 12:24 Friday 18/02/2022
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Wind warnings in place for Sunday into Monday and again a fair spread in wind strengths, the GFS looks about in the middle
The front crossing the country on Sunday afternoon looks very wet and windy followed by increasing wind strength along Atlantic coastal counties as the day goes on. Blustery over the country and gales along the coasts with strong onshore winds, looks like winds will increase towards night
Some models showing it very windy overnight Sunday into Monday morning especially in the W and Ulster, models have been increasing these wind speeds over the last few runs. Wouldn't be surprised to see some Orange warnings perhaps in the W and NW.
Met Eireann
Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Donegal, Connacht
Met Éireann Weather Warning
Very strong westerly winds are expected on Sunday and Monday. Coastal flooding is possible in places.
Valid: 09:00 Sunday 20/02/2022 to 09:00 Monday 21/02/2022
Issued: 15:17 Friday 18/02/2022
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The GFS really surprising, a huge upgrade on previous runs, widespread Orange warnings, and high end in the NW at least, wouldn't take much to put it into a higher warning, rarely do you see the GFS the strongest of the models at this close to an event, usually the other way round, ARPEGE also looks strong, GFS looks as strong as the UKMO HD!
Could be a named storm. This is the kind of scenario where people could be caught on the hop, deserves a thread.
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GFS 18z upgrading the cold slightly for next Thursday. We get very close to a direct northerly. If this verifies Thursday could be the coldest day of the winter so far.
-9C uppers on Thursday.
A near miss of a bitterly cold north-westerly from North-eastern Greenland.
Without any mid Atlantic ridging or northern blocking, unfortunately this will just roll past us.
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To me looking like a cold wintry shower flow after the front clears on Weds, blustery day. After a lull away from the coasts Weds night giving widespread frosts inland into Thurs morning and then becoming quite blustery across the country and becoming very windy along the coast .Numerous wintry showers of rain, hail, sleet and snow showers moving well inland later Weds into Thurs, possible embedded troughs and thunderstorms quite possible. Cold day Thurs with added Windchill. Currently would think accumulations on hills and mountains it being so cold and maybe some lower down in places also but perhaps localized.
Approaching milder air on Fri, looks a mainly day, some coastal showers, less clod Fri night /Sat morning. Lighter winds on Fri also.
The W and NW coastal areas could see gusts up around 90 -100 km/h on Thurs, 70 - 80 km/h overland. Not as much precipitation as the last week but quite showery along Atlantic coastal counties Weds and Thurs.
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Cold airflow coming out of Canada and forming plenty of clouds on the way and reaching us as Weds goes on , 850 hPa winds.
Bit of interest, real hit and miss stuff unless we get a trough going and who knows an area might get a few cm's.
Thurs looks very cold getting up to no more that 6 or 7C in blustery conditions so a bite in the wind.
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