General Irish politics discussion thread

Sam Russell · 19-01-2022 12:03pm

CA is the representation of the population as a whole - that is the point. They are selected by a very thorough system to get them to be representative.

If you compare it to the audience of the BBC Question Time during the Brexit time, the QT audience are selected to be as confrontational and atypical as possible - to make good TV. The CA are selected to make good decisions that are representative of the nation. Quite different.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 4:46pm

Three days in a row now the Irish Times have ran opinion pieces having a pop off of Sinn Fein.

On Monday Joe Joyce wrote a piece entitled "No room for complacency over Sinn Féin in government"

Yesterday it was former Sunday Independent editor and former wife of Eoghan Harris, Anne Harris, who managed to pivot in the middle of a piece ostensibly about the Aisling Murphy case to single Sinn Fein out for some attacks

Three years ago, the village of Enniskerry was in anguish over the abduction and murder of Jastine Valdez just as the people of Tullamore are over Ashling Murphy today. Jastine Valdez’s parents are “new Irish” and she was aspiring to that too. The Filipino/Irish community was gutted with grief. There was a candlelit vigil.

But there were no widespread calls for national vigils for Jastine Valdez. The president did not send a special message, Sinn Féin did not organise a candle lit vigil in Belfast, Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill did not talk about a “watershed moment”. There were no vigils in New York, London and Edinburgh.

Mary Lou MacDonald did not announce a motion to establish a “gender-based unit within the Government”.

....

The nationwide rallies in protest at the verdict in the Belfast rape trial were heavily peopled by men, as vociferous in their calls as women. The then minister for justice Charlie Flanagan, a man, immediately responded by commissioning a report into sexual violence. Its recommendations form the basis of the “ambitious strategy”, about to be announced by Minister for Justice Helen McEntee.

But Sinn Féin won’t wait. The white heat of the social media response clearly provides the potential for another “youthgrab”. Their motion for a “gender unit” in Government smacks of the callous politicising of a brutal murder. Besides it doesn’t make sense. A sudden random act of violence is a social not a political issue. How can a deranged and evil decision by one individual to kill an innocent woman be legislated for? What law can prevent that?

link

Then today it was Michael McDowell's turn, with a piece entitled "Does it matter how Sinn Féin organises itself?"

I'm neither a SF member nor have I ever voted for them but this sort of bias really irritates me. One of the things that I think we do well in Ireland is have newspapers that are far less partisan than they are in the UK. The one major exception to this is the treatment of SF. The Indo/Sunday Indo have been at it for years but I haven't noticed it that much in the Irish Times. I realise that these are all opinion writers but surely someone from the editorial team signed off on all of these running day after day. It's not exactly subtle.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 4:57pm

On the same topic, the Independent have tweeted this out today:

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1483582477532868615

So they have a big picture of the Sinn Fein TD with a "drugs possession charge" title. Firstly it's not her who's up on the charges, it's her partner, so having her picture is misleading. If you then read the article it turns out he's a sever epileptic who has been self medicating with cannabis for years and was caught with a small amount of that in his possession. So, yes the tweet is technically correct but it's written in such a way that it encompasses everything from the most minor end of the scale (which this is on) to the more extreme end (say if he was caught with crack cocaine or crystal meth).

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 5:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300737#Comment_118300737

Where are SF going to get 50 seats from? There are two constituencies where they could easily lose their seat and that is no fault of the Shinner TD -but a case of they won due to poor vote management of the other party who will be sore that that happened.

It would be very risky to run three candidates in Donegal- they tried that in 2016 and they somehow lost a safe seat due to vote splitting (he later regained his seat in 2020 - huge cock up on their part )

In Roscommon - East Galway, the SF girl got lucky (that is not in any way a criticism on her and her ability). That was a FF seat but idiotically, Martin insisted on parachuting a very unpopular second candidate, who in turn split the FF vote and messed up the sitting FF TD's chances of keeping his seat

Westmeath/ Longford - Total shot out of the blue there, with that particular SF candidate doing so so so well. So well that she needed more than just the Mullingar side of the county. She got absolutely destroyed at the local elections in 2019 and then all of a sudden she tops the General Election pole, despite being a no body at the time. Athlonians are sore that they messed up to a situation where they out voted themselves out of having a TD from Athlone (even if that guy deserved to lose his seat) . Longford managed to do that a few times, but they won't allow that to happen again so things will be tight for the remaining seat that will go to a Mullingar areas based person. FG tend to return at least 1 person. Likewise FF. It was one of the few counties back in 2009 that bucked the national trend during the local elections where FF were getting destroyed around the country, That SF TD who topped the polls at the 2020 GE spectacularly lost her LOCAL ELECTION SEAT in 2019 , so Westmeath is not safe for SF, yet. Is she likely to get re-elected ? Depends on the quality of the personnel on offer .

SF topping Dublin Bay NOrth was not expected either - seat win, maybe, but not the quota she got - Still might be a tad risky to run another SF candidate there in case of vote splitting.

I do not think anyone could have predicted that a SF would win a seat in the same Constituency as Michael Martin, Simon Coveney and McGrath. All three being high profile men. Yet the lad actually topped the poll. Granted Martin is a blank and Coveney might have dirted his bib.......but was that SF success a flash in the pan ? I though SF Cork were a bit screwed with Johnathan O'Brien left politics

Arguably, Mary Lou could risk running a running mate , like Bertie in 2006ish. Her personal vote might take a small hit, but she will likely romp home over the quota by the first count and thus give her running mate a shot of getting the extra seat. Still a competitive Constituency . Would be a bit surprised if Pascal O'Donoghue lost his seat

Dublin 8 Constituency is probably the only safer spot outside the border counties where maybe a Shinner could win a second seat as there guy has a long history of comfortably getting elected within 3 counts, so could have a pretty good first preference. The People before Progress and socialists waun are busted flushes.

It is not in the interest of Labour to work with SF. They are rivals, enemies even. Labour will gain nothing from it and Social Democrats won't dance with SF if Labour do and they are lightweight without the two main leaders (Gannon needs to grow a pair - he is good, but stick to things that matter)

Greens will finally be taken out of shot once and for all

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 6:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501050#Comment_118501050

Where are SF going to get 50 seats from?

I posted this earlier in this thread:

In the 2020 election Sinn Fein won 37 seats with 24.5% of the vote. However that doesn't tell the full story. They famously underestimated their own performance and did not run enough candidates. Going through the constituencies there were many where they got at least 1.5 Quotas in but had nobody to transfer them to. There's no guarantee that any of those people would have been elected especially give SF's infamous transfer issues. However, they had 7 seats where their share of the vote was so high that there is no question that they'd have won the seat:

Dublin South-Central : 1.97 Quotas

Waterford : 1.91 Quotas

Dublin Bay North : 1.79 Quotas

Dublin South-West : 1.78 Quotas

Dublin North-West : 1.78 Quotas

Dublin Central : 1.78 Quotas

Donegal : 2.71 Quotas (they ran 2 candidates)

So you can add 7 to the 37 that they actually won which gets you to 44 seats off the back of that 24.5% vote share. If they get 30% or even 35%, well then their number of seats will be significantly higher (well above 50)

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 6:03pm

@Brussels Sprout

"Thinking about this again, I'm not sure where that poster got that 45 seat figure from but it's a farcically inaccurate estimation.

In the 2020 election Sinn Fein won 37 seats with 24.5% of the vote. However that doesn't tell the full story. They famously underestimated their own performance and did not run enough candidates. Going through the constituencies there were many where they got at least 1.5 Quotas in but had nobody to transfer them to. There's no guarantee that any of those people would have been elected especially give SF's infamous transfer issues. However, they had 7 seats where their share of the vote was so high that there is no question that they'd have won the seat:

Dublin South-Central : 1.97 Quotas
Waterford : 1.91 Quotas
Dublin Bay North : 1.79 Quotas
Dublin South-West : 1.78 Quotas
Dublin North-West : 1.78 Quotas
Dublin Central : 1.78 Quotas
Donegal : 2.71 Quotas (they ran 2 candidates)

So you can add 7 to the 37 that they actually won which gets you to 44 seats off the back of that 24.5% vote share. If they get 30% or even 35%, well then their number of seats will be significantly higher."

They ran 3 candidates in Donegal in 2016 (bear in mind they had a successful 2014 local election) and they bloody managed to lose one of their two seats - they lost a seat (McLoughlin) that was SAFE !!! A popular guy. That is because the third guy ate into some of his first preference. That is why they only went 2 in 2020, and comfortably regained McLoughlin's seat (First Count) . After the 2019 Local disaster for SF, Nationally, and the huge bad publicity SF had with ex councilors and bullying etc ........running just 2 was a smart move. Also take into account Pringle is ex SF so he would enjoy votes and no 2.3 and 4 preferences from SF people. He (Pringle) scrapped in in 2020 but running 3 is risky. Donegal tend to always return a FF or FG man. Is McHugh (FG) still popular up there ? A lot will depend on who would run in Donegal - Beasts like Cope Gallagher (who got smashed) are probably gone for good but............

Waterford? Maybe they could run another SF guy and hope Culliane's quota gets the 2nd person in. FF and FG have failed Waterford and SF have 6 in the County COuncil (FF and FG have just one extra,each) Could ye see the Green Party TD keeping his seat ?

Dublin Central - there is nothing to suggest that Mary Lou's popularity is going to go down, so , work doing a Bertie and running a second mate - but who? SF got trounced at the last locals in Dublin CIty (lost 8 seats) Parachuting a Senator or bigger name might threaten Mary Lou in the long run.

Dublin South Central - doable - Would be surprised to see either Joan Collins and that waun, Brid Smith surviving . Catherine Ardagh (ff) might do better next time, she got a much better first preference than both women, but transfers harmed her . But thing is Aengus Ó Snodaigh, while a safe seat, there was absolutely nothing to suggest from his 2016 performance that he would romp home so so so easily in 2020. Collins' vote just caved in , in comparison to 2016. Also, SF did run a second person in 2016 and she only got 7.6 % of the vote. I know that If I was ó'Snodaigh, I would be making every excuse under the sun to justify being the only SF ticket in that constituency in case another SF person ate into his vote. Who is a safe 2nd candidate that won't harm Aengus but is strong enough to score some 1st preferences and ride on O'Snodaigh's surplus ?

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 6:12pm

@BonnieSituation

"They really need to let this message go. It isn't working.

This FG govt brought FF back to power. That's what will do them in. And tbh, given the record since 2017, it would do them no harm to have a natural enough bloodletting and let Varadkar resign without a heave.

SF and SD's will be the big winners at the next election. I don't think that will be that surprising."

Based on their 2019 Local Elections Results, the Soldiers of Destiny were going to return to where they belonged in Dáil Éireann. Mickey was even popular despite doing Sweet FA. That final few months leading up to the Generals, SF were licking their wounds and still dealing with the fall out from the bullying and worse allegations from ex councillors and awkward "up the ra" chants. Martin then just lost his balls and performed badly in the GE

People most certainly do need to be reminded what a shower of spoofers most SF councillors and TDs are.(so bad that they even pretend to have qualifications that they never attained) Not to mention metathetically inept - Note Mary Lou's laughable post count declaration that her party would talk to everyone bar FG and FF despite it been crystal clear that neither Labour and SD wanted to know and none of the Independents were SF inclined. Morto. I recall the Irish Stock Exchange took a dip after that claim of hers.

Whatever about SF doing better, where the hell do you think SD are going to get the extra seats from ? They have no chance of success in most areas outside Dublin. Maybe at a sneeze somewhere like Limerick City or Cork but elsewhere ? Come on .

Some of the SF wins outside the Irish Cities were a bit fluky too with little to no reason or explanation for them and more a case of default on the unpopularity of Labour and FG

BringingSexyBack · 19-01-2022 6:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501265#Comment_118501265

Yes, I noted that you gave more detail in other post. Fair argument . I addressed that too

Underestimate ? You for real? They got destroyed at the local elections (even in Dublin) and they had bad press over their treatment of party members who were leaving left right and center. They acted pragmatically and there was no way they or the country expect the first preference numbers

To go from getting your arse handed to you on a plate in the County Council elections in 2019 to topping the poll in a mainly rural county known to be a bit of bastion for FF and FG down the decades (Westmeath Longford ) (Longford has a Republican past with Republican SF, so I am referring to Westmeath on that )

To be fair to you, the 7 specific areas that you mentioned, are probably their best bet - still think Donegal would be a risk (for reasons already mentioned)

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 6:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501279#Comment_118501279

Based on their 2020 vote they have the numbers for all of those constituencies and they've only increased in popularity since then.

The 2016 incident in Donegal happened because their vote total was far too low for 3 TDs (and on the border for 2 TDs). They only got 1.65 quotas.

Compare that to them getting 2.71 quotas in 2020. On that sort of result they would easily get three TDs and would be absolutely no danger of ending up in the 2016 scenario.

Brussels Sprout · 19-01-2022 6:36pm

If you're interested in this topic, @HMcEvansoneya on Twitter has a website where he projects polling numbers onto constituencies:

Based on the recent polling averages he has SF on 63 seats. You can see the breakdown of those numbers here

BringingSexyBack · 20-01-2022 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501401#Comment_118501401

SF are very popular in Donegal, but FF have always had a base around the county and they are still prominent in the County Council as per the 2019 Results. As mentioned already, there maybe a Thomas Pringle effect. He is from South Donegal, like Doherty and he is ex SF, so he is very transfer friendly

2016 was off the back of a pretty successful 2014 Local Election for SF though. The third candidate was Councillor Gary Doherty ( Stranorlar -Lifford area) isn't too far from McLoughlin's heartland . He ate into McLoughlin's vote - While G Doherty got elected to the County Council comfortably in 2014 and 2019, his vote share dropped a little in 2019 . Charlie McConalogue's vote nose dived in 2020 compared to the poll topping 1st count election of 2016. Bear in mind with Cope Gallagher gone (and McConalogue didn't get enough of his votes) not sure anyone knew what would happen to his votes. I am not sure that there are any SF Donegal Councillors that could command enough votes of his own without splitting either of the incumbents

We know how bad things were for SF in the 2019, and frankly , they simply did not have anymore suitable candidates. They performed brilliantly , especially in the back yard of the the now Taoiseach and the former Tanaiste's (Coveney) and heir apparent of FF (McGrath) - Could he pull that off again ?

BringingSexyBack · 20-01-2022 11:14am

@Brussels Sprout

Interesting link, but I will have whatever he is taking . 65 ? LOL Green Party will actually keep seats ?

The following SF seats will be in danger - if the public judge the individual on their merit (most are idiots, so, they won't) :

Westmeath - Longford - Athlone will want their own TD , and even if Boxer Moran is unpopular, he will get back - Athlone region is bigger than Mullingar - SF have a weak presence in Westmeath in local council since they bullied and pushed out their stalwart in 2017ish and unless SF get a strong runner in Longford who will transfer to their Mullingar mate - (I can not really talk about Longford Politics) SF maybe be fucked. How she got elected, never mind topping the poll remains a mystery to people outside Mullingar .If there was a local election tomorrow , I can not see many SF candidates (and I know to three who would likely run) getting voted in to the County Council -

Roscommon - East Galway - The SF girl, is a smart and popular girl. She will enjoy support along East Galway, but, FF lost a Safe seat in the Roscommon side with their ridiculous vote management by brining in a person that would not be exactly, popular in Roscommon despite her family lineage. That SF win is somewhat fluky (horrible thing to say , I accept, people work hard, but FF lost that seat)

The Clare Seat - unless they sub the incumbent

Dublin Bay North - If allowed to run alone, she will be okay. If they get greedy thinking that this unstable area is ripe for a Second SF person, her vote will take a hit. This can be an unpredictable place. As annoying as the Labour lad is, he has been hard working in that area. SF success will depend on how FF do to shake up what is an uninspiring line up ie Haughey - Mitchell of SF should regain her seat , but the vote she got ? Not sure she could repeat that , she is not exactly visible around the area.

Mayo - She will probably retain her seat, he entrance to the Dáil was a long time coming. FG will have the GAA vote (Dillon) not sure FF are strong enough to carry a second TD , even if she (Chambers) is a former TD and still enjoys national prominence. This would not be a county to risk running a second SF person - But, the increase in her vote , where did that come from ? A protest vote ? She made some idiotic comments about Covid and comparing it to Rosa Parka and US segregation , recently . Alas, people are thick, so they probably would have agreed with her .

Come the pre election tv campaigns and Mary Lou is wheeled out , people will see what spoofers Shinners are. It would stop the SF rise, but it might be enough to keep the seats down to 40-45 - 65 Seats ? **** sake ...............

L1011 · 20-01-2022 11:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501438#Comment_118501438

He doesn't properly counter for local personal popularity though - for quite some time he had Howlin losing his seat.

SF will eat at the Indpendents-and-other-Left seat count; but the idea of FFG actually gaining four seats between them while SF gain 26 is implausible. The SocDems holding 5 while SF gain 26 is so far beyond implausible its laughable.

Heraclius · 20-01-2022 11:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504824#Comment_118504824

What would be your prediction based on current polling?

L1011 · 20-01-2022 12:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504899#Comment_118504899

SF high 50s, FF ~30, FG mid 30s; stronger Ind/Lab, lower SD/GP/PBP than that guys predictions. However, I'm not basing that on an apparent model or looking for donations to do so either!

SF could yet go too hard on candidates, run too many and slip a few seats as a result but I wouldn't bet on it.

Heraclius · 20-01-2022 12:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504913#Comment_118504913

I would have guessed similar numbers. I'm curious to see if FF will pass out FG though. FG seem to have a record of dropping a few percent in the last days before the election. I will enjoy the day of counting!

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2022 12:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504824#Comment_118504824

It's certainly not perfect. The one that stands out to me is Holly Cairns losing her seat to SF in CSW - give that she's been a star performer and SF don't have a TD - i don't think that is very likely. The problem with his methodology (or any attempt to model Irish elections) is we simply don't have good quality local polling in this country due to our size. So his method is to get the regional breakdowns from the national polling (which are usually by province) and map those onto the individual constituencies. There are 2 issues as far as I can see with that:

The margin of error increases when you use a crosstabs figure, like the regional breakdown, like that, as you're reducing the sample size
It doesn't take into account any local constituency affects (as you pointed out)

Also it's extremely difficult to model for the final seats in Ireland as the transfer system is quite complex

Given all that though I think for obtaining ball park figures it's a reasonable start.

L1011 · 20-01-2022 12:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504930#Comment_118504930

(should point out I'm working off 160 seats, not the 167+ we'll have if the election happens when expected. And so is that model)

If it ends up like that, I'll probably enjoy the horse-trading afterwards more as it becomes impossible to form a Government that isn't SF/FF; with both sides trying to pretend they've no intent to do so yet slowly winding in their rhetoric.

Yer mans models allow for an FG/FF/SD/GP government, but I'm confident the numbers won't work out like that.

Geuze · 20-01-2022 12:27pm

63, Jaysus, that is a lot.

I'm such whoever does that website knows much more than me, but 63 still seems a lot.

L1011 · 20-01-2022 12:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118505033#Comment_118505033

Second (or third, in one case) candidates might have got them 50 in 2020, remember. 37 is an artificially low base for whatever they do get to.

Those would have been at the expense of PBP/A, SDs, GP, left wing independents almost entirely.

Loafing Oaf · 20-01-2022 3:26pm

If whatever model he is using is predicting (possiblty) three seats for FG in Mayo and DBS, well sticking a pin in the list of candidates would be more reliable. They'll get one in both constituencies and they'll be satisfied...

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2022 3:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118506107#Comment_118506107

He's got 2 FG seats in both those constituencies. That's hardly an outlandish prediction considering that's how many TDs got elected in both of them in 2020. Both will be very tough constituencies next time out for sure but they'll certainly be targeting 2 seats in both.

L1011 · 20-01-2022 4:03pm

Two in DBS will depend on who they run; and a very favourable day at the polls too.

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2022 4:17pm

my mistake- just remembered that they didn't win 2 seats in 2020. Kate O'Connell lost the final seat.

Yeah that's going to be a blood-bath next time round. 4 seats and LAB, FF, SF and GP all have sitting TDs. FG will be eyeing 2 of those but that'd be a tough ask given they only got 1.38 Quotas there in 2020.

Loafing Oaf · 20-01-2022 4:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118506285#Comment_118506285

I do have questions overall about the frequency with which the model is predicting three seats for a single party in certain constituencies. It shows this in Donegal, Dublin South-Central, Louth and Waterford for SF, and in Dublin Bay South, Dún Laoghaire and now Mayo for FG

This seems to suggest the model was predicting three FG seats in those constituencies but he is overruling it?

Anyway if the model is even suggesting that is a realistic possibility I don't think we can set much store by it.

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2022 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118506610#Comment_118506610

Can you link to that quote? I'd like to read more about that

Loafing Oaf · 20-01-2022 5:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118506852#Comment_118506852

https://irishelectionprojections.com/mayo/

L1011 · 20-01-2022 5:51pm

3 FG in Dun Laoghaire? Are they proposing 3 FG and Rich Boy, 3 FG + SF or 3 FG + a non-left candidate? Cause none of those are happening.

Someone needs to throw their model out and start again, not just try correct for obvious nuttiness like that.

It had 3 FG TDs when one of them didn't need to be elected (Ceann Comhairle) but otherwise has never, and will never return that. And there's always space for a left wing TD or two.

Loafing Oaf · 20-01-2022 5:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118507050#Comment_118507050

Well apparently the most recent prediction of the model was 2FG, 1FF and 1PBP but previously it was saying 3FG and the other one going to RBB. But like you I'd be thinking FF and FG get at most two seats between them there.

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2022 6:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118506964#Comment_118506964

Reading the rest of that paragraph it looks like he realises (in March 2021) that those numbers are suspect and that he needs to change how his model works:

...and I want to do some rationalisation on how the model optimises candidate numbers for April’s update, which should help eliminate any three-seat wins that are noise.

The subsequent update from April 2021 seems to confirm that that change has been made

Not a lot to note here – this is largely due to better calculation of the FG vote split putting one of their candidates below Dara Calleary (FF).

I'd have no issues at all with someone altering their model in the face of suspect outputs. It's no different to a scientist altering a theory in order for it to better explain experimental results. As long as that change is maintained for future runs of the model then it makes sense to implement it.

Of the 7 constituencies that he highlighted previously as returning 3 TDs from one party that's now down to 3: Donegal, Louth & Waterford and Cavan/Monaghan is also there now as well - all for SF. Since the 3 border constituencies all have 2 TDs at the moment that doesn't seem crazy given SF's rise in the polls since the last election (and they actually had the numbers in Donegal to get 3 elected had they ran them last time around). The Waterford prediction jumps out since they only have the 1 TD there currently although, they would have had 2 had they ran a second candidate in 2020 - since they got 1.91 Quotas there.

Loafing Oaf · 20-01-2022 7:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118507168#Comment_118507168

Plus Waterford is not historically particularly republican. I'd buy SF being in a with a good chance of three seats in the border five-seaters but Waterford seems out of far leftfield.

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2022 1:01pm

I see that former junior minister, Kevin "Boxer" Moran went for a county council seat, vacated by his son, only to lose out 12-6 on a vote for the seat to another candidate. That's interesting that there's a vote like that in Westmeath. I know that a lot of councils allow the councilor, who is stepping down, to name their replacement. I hope that the son didn't resign in order for his father to get the seat - if he did then that plan backfired badly.

link

L1011 · 02-02-2022 5:23pm

Each council can set its own rules for replacing Independents. Most just do the ask the Councillor procedure, DCC even allows Independents to nominate someone in case of their death but it seems Westmeath CC go for open nominations from the floor. Some councils do "countback" where the last eliminated candidate gets it.

Party members are to be replaced by their own party - actually the one they were elected for, should they have changed. Also someone elected as an Independent who joins a party is still considered Independent in this legislation but I'd expect many councils would go to the new party first.

Jamie Moran says he was leaving for work reasons so it might not have been a specific method to get his Dad back in.

Brussels Sprout · 11-02-2022 6:31pm

Nominations closed for the TCD by-election to replace Ivana Bacik. Runners and riders below:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1492156868915085326

I have no idea who the favourite is. Hazel Chu would obviously be the most high profile but I think she burned a lot of bridges with her solo run to get the NUI Seanad seat in the last election. Hugo McNeill and Patricia McKenna are the only other names that I'd really recongise.

9-8 split women: men which seems unusual but a welcome change from the norm.

Breezer · 11-02-2022 8:47pm

I know this one gets wheeled out every few months, but to me it’s quite stark at the moment that there is nobody to the right of Fine Gael economically on the Irish political spectrum. And that’s an increasingly large space as Fine Gael has moved further and further left (or at least populist “left”) to try keep up with Sinn Féin’s populism.

We’re entering into a period of inflation, the likes of which may not have been seen for decades. The Government’s response is to hand people more money, and to increase the amount they’re planning to hand out every time they discuss it. The only opposition to this at parliamentary level is from those who think they should be doing the same, but with larger sums of money.

Now you could make all sorts of arguments about energy not being a discretionary expenditure, global factors etc. But surely there is space for some sort of PDs 2.0 who could at least make the argument for looking at things like scrapping the universal nature of certain social welfare benefits (the new fuel cashback thing, child benefit, etc.) And at the same time altering tax bands to make the system fairer: bringing people into the tax net at a lower point, raising the threshold for the top band, but introducing more bands in between to make it a more gradual progression for middle earners.

Maybe this stuff is too politically toxic for now, Sinn Féin’s brand of populism is where the votes are at for the moment, and any small party coming out with this would be on a kamikaze mission. It just seems to me that there’s a huge amount of groupthink in the Dáil at the moment, and very little choice on offer.

Brussels Sprout · 12-02-2022 1:09pm

Speaking of Sinn Fein I noticed this tweet yesterday by their finance spokesman.

https://twitter.com/PearseDoherty/status/1491918354600411157

This struck me as SF trying to have it both ways. They'll attack the government for not doing anything about inflation whilst at the same time criticising Varadkar for calling for monetary policy changes....in order to tackle inflation. The Bank of England have already raised rates for this reason and the Fed have signaled that they will do so as well at their next meeting.

I'm actually looking forward to SF being in power because right now they're peddling a bunch of easy answers (Doherty said they'd abolish the carbon tax in order to tackle inflation). Governing is all about compromises and making unpopular choices for the greater good (ideally). It's the easiest thing in the world to just sit on the sidelines and oppose all of the unpopular decisions that a government has to make.

Wanderer78 · 12-02-2022 1:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118620256#Comment_118620256

in a way theyre right, but they definitely will struggle when they get into government, central banks are stuck, if they raise rates too soon and by too much, they ll actually cause economic slow down, as we ll start to struggle to service our debts, in particular our private debts, this in turn would also more than likely cause us to save more, as confidence slips under such conditions, its a very tricky situation. its also important to note, most money created in both the public and private domains, has gone towards raising asset prices, and hasnt actually made it into the real economy.....

elements of our current government will also get a chance in the opposition next time around, so theyll be able fire all sorts of accusations at sf, and some will be warranted, so.....

Good loser · 23-02-2022 1:47am

Saw Paul Murphy on the Tonight Show panel. Discussing the Ukraine crisis. Wondered (to myself) what position/opposition stance he would adopt.

Unsurprisingly it was the latter. Apparently he feels Nato (US imperialism) and Putin are equally to blame and Nato should withdraw from eastern Europe. 'I am not in favour of one side or the other winning' The unilateral provocations of 170,000 massed troops is unremarkable - to Paul.

He's a disgrace to the Dail.

Brussels Sprout · 23-02-2022 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118676391#Comment_118676391

Sounds like some good ol' false equivalency. It's incredible that these people (especially the 2 MEPs) cannot ever comment on Russia without injecting some whataboutery to do with the USA, NATO or the EU.

If ever there was a time to unequivocally criticise Putin's actions it was yesterday. He effectively declared war on Ukraine for no reason other than he wanted to. It is the easiest open goal you're ever going to get as a politician to call that out as being wrong. If you cannot do that without resorting to some preposterous "both-sides" narrative then you're nothing but a useful idiot.

Podge_irl · 24-02-2022 12:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118676391#Comment_118676391

NATO withdrawing from eastern Europe is the other side winning. The Stop the War coalition in the UK, that Corbyn is a decent player in, is adopting a similar approach. Basically, NATO/West bad therefore anyone opposing them is by default good.

Good loser · 24-02-2022 2:29am

Heard there on BBC that 14 Labour MP's are on the same wavelength as Paul.

L1011 · 25-02-2022 9:01am

SF are one down now (and back to not being able to claim they're the biggest in the Dail I think)

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-td-violet-anne-wynne-resigns-from-party-over-psychological-warfare-41383485.html

The things she's resigning over are common knowledge - SF is a centrally controlled party that doesn't accept any variance from policy at all; and tens of female reps quit during the previous Dail and council terms claiming bullying

blackwhite · 25-02-2022 9:53am

I doubt SF are too upset to lose her. She’s been nothing but a magnet for negative stories.

If they’d thought before the election that they had a sniff of a seat in Clare they wouldn’t have had her as the candidate

Brussels Sprout · 25-02-2022 11:22am

She's been a walking disaster for them but it's not a good look to be losing another elected representative like this.

If FF/FG were clever and could avoid their worst impulses they would stop hammering SF on the IRA and instead expend all of their energy in their internal workings and populist proposals. I fully expect them to have learned nothing though and go into the next election talking about Jean McConville and Jerry McCabe. It's like an itch that they cannot stop scratching and certain opinion columnists demand it even though it wins them absolutely no new voters and often actively puts younger voters off.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2022 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690083#Comment_118690083

ffg will throw everything at discrediting sf, heading into the ge, it wont work, their reign is coming to an end, for now anyway....

Brussels Sprout · 02-03-2022 6:43pm

Alan Kelly is stepping down as the leader of the Labour party.

That's a bit of a shock. He hasn't even contested an election for them as leader.

Larbre34 · 02-03-2022 6:50pm

I'm closely related to the senior parliamentary assistant of a Labour TD.

The talk almost since Day 1 of Kelly's leadership, has been that he is hopelessly inept and out of touch and incapable of leading the Party to a unified policy position and clear identity ahead of the local elections in 2024.

They had to cut their losses now or face total irrelevance and extermination.

I'm told an early reunification process with the Social Democrats is on the cards for whomever takes over the leadership.

SecretsOfEarth · 02-03-2022 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721555#Comment_118721555

For me, I could never warm to Kelly - I often found him smug and self-righteous, even when making valid points. Of course, there was also the problem that, anytime he criticised the government for something that was broadly unpopular, it was usually rebutted with a reference to his own government days.

Brussels Sprout · 02-03-2022 6:55pm

Interesting. They could call themselves the Social Democratic & Labour Party or SDLP for sho.......oh wait a minute

Larbre34 · 02-03-2022 7:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721595#Comment_118721595

Why shouldn't they do exactly that and align with the northern Party of the same name. It would be the perfect time for such an alliance and an all-Ireland centre left Liberal party.

It would be perfect positioning ahead of the next decade of Irish unification politics and would certainly eat a hell of a lot of Sinn Féin's lunch at the polls, if they get their policies right.

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