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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,008 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    What he is attempting to gain, is a buffer.

    A good big wide chunk of sovereign Ukraine running from the northern border with Belarus around to the eastern border of current activity. Definitely including the City of Kharkiv and probably Kiev itself.

    In time he will seek to make entirely Russian the Black Sea and Azov Sea coasts, linking up the annexed peninsula of Crimea with Mariupol and Odessa and perhaps ultimately the Russian puppet enclave of Transnistria, part of Moldova.

    Do all that, and you get both the most strategic cities and ports, as well as reducing any potential direct border with NATO to just the Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

    I believe the troops in Belarus are there both to deter Ukraine from moving assets eastward, as well as closing any potential NATO corridor if things get too out of hand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Is he willing to pay the price in blood for that buffer? Or more importantly, are the Russian people willing to pay that price? This is the insane calculus of war, and it looks like he's willing to throw an indeterminate amount of young Russian men, and Ukrainian men and civilians into the meat grinder to achieve it. And in his calculus can it be sustained and held?

    On the last point, I don't think he can. If he enters urban Ukraine and tries to hold it, he's in for a punishing conflict. Ukraine checked out of the Russkiy Mir a decade ago and probably longer ago truth be told. All Russian ethnics bar the very old are fully fluent in Ukrainian. Ukrainians in all parts of the country switch between both languages with nothing political inferred in doing so. The generation that came of age during the Orange Revolution and Maidan wants nothing to do with the vassal status that Moscow is trying to stuff down their throats, and the war is not exactly a winning PR strategy for Putin if that's what he's after. Ukraine is not a piece of scrub real estate that exists to be a buffer state between the West and Putin's paranoia.

    Long-term, Ukrainians know which side their bread is buttered, EU membership and coexisting as a peer country with the prosperous countries of the West. The events of the last couple of months will have deepened their resolve, and morale will collapse with Russian troops far from home rather than Ukrainians fighting tooth and nail street by street to retain their country as a going concern.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,296 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    as much as the building of force on Ukrainian borders the Russians maintaining that Ukraine should not be allowed to be in NATO just shows how paranoid and actually pure mad Putin is,

    is this WWIII… ? Not yet perhaps but it’s a grim precipice that Russia are staring over…. it looks like we have started down a road where there may not be a peaceful retreat…



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    I think Putin has decided NATO has no power and practically no troops available to stop him



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭timmymagoo


    And Putin knows many young people living in France Germany and the uk hate their own counties, they hate what they stand for. PC and woke BS have made Europe inc Ireland weak. Putin knows our leaders are weak and our young men very soft and feminine.

    I feel sorry for the Ukrainians and for people in the Baltic states who will eventually be next. They are on their own.



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  • Subscribers Posts: 41,497 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Are people actually asking what does the ego maniacal narcissistic aging dictator Putin get from this?

    The answer is historic legacy.

    He wants to be able to do, and leave behind, something that Russia hasn't managed in 80 years... The expansion of the Russian state. They failed in Afghanistan, they failed in Crimea... And here Putin sees only a welcoming citizenship who would be delighted to reattach to Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,740 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Do they not effectively control the Crimea now ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    Why would he have to redeploy?

    Nato, Us, EU have said they will not be doing anything militarily to Russia.

    he has nothing to worry about on that front.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    You think PUtin cares if people believe his justification for war in Ukraine.

    he is probably laughing at the pathetic message from Biden.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,497 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    They do...... i was referring to the attempted political annexation of Crimea in the early 90s, which was a failure when Yeltsin signed the friendship treaty in 97.

    Putin took a different route with his military annexation in 2014.... which has actually lead to the current situation we have.

    hes doing the very same here again.... create instability on the border, encourage and back rebels, recognise the independence of the separatist regions, create a russian back administration system in the region and hey presto... its under russian control.



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  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I sincerely hope Russia has not come up with something that would give it a true technological edge.

    This is his latest:

    “We will continue to develop advanced weapon systems, including hypersonic and those based on new physical principles, and expand the use of advanced digital technologies and elements of artificial intelligence. Such complexes are truly the weapons of the future, which significantly increase the combat potential of our armed forces.”

    I hope it's posturing and bluster, because it would change the dynamic and may go some way to explaining why he feels so emboldened.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭AyeGer


    I wonder are the oligarchs Boris didn’t sanction pulling their money out of London as we speak.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭amacca


    I know what you said about soft young men may sound like hyperbole to some but tbh I think there is an element of truth to it.....


    I'd wonder though if enough of the men in Russia want to get cut to pieces in a bloody war either or how long putin gets to persist before enough of the public in Russia turn on him that a competitor already sharpening the knife sees an opportunity.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    You mean like his invisible giant drone submarines full of nuclear missiles that will be deployed ,and solely controlled by AI ,

    And his unstoppable tanks which he hasn't got ,or stealth air nobody can see or stop



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ha. Well, yes I hope so!

    BTW, you forgot the mind-controlled drone swarms armed with dolphins that have interncotinental laser guns on their noses.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    There's an awful lot of information over the years about Russian super weapons that were eventually discovered to anything but super , other countries are way more advanced militarily wise



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,443 ✭✭✭jmreire


    First I doubt that Ukraine / West will just hand over Ukraine. What ever the Russians take now by force they will have to hold with force,, plus while they hold all (or most ) of the military cards at the moment, the Ukraine's forces will only be getting stronger. And at some point in time, they will take back what is theirs, how ever long it takes. Vladimir lifespan is not unlimited, especially as he is pushing the 70's. In 2019, average lifespan for males was 68.24 years, and women was 78.17 years. And while Putin will not be personally affected by sanctions, you can be sure that the Russian people will be, even before the body bags start to arrive home to Russia



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,975 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    The problem is do that any revolution or rebellion in Russia is always quickly put down and stopped. Putin controls the media there so they only show what he let's them show and he has effectively nutured any political competitors to his seat so unless someone in his regime decides this is enough and betrays Putin unfortunetly he is not going anywhere anytime soon.

    He is very sly and cunning like a Romulan.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,106 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The measures announced by Ukraine

    It's been an eventful morning, with a flurry of announcements and decisions from the Ukrainian government.

    Here's a sum-up:

    • A state of emergency across the whole country is set to be declared, following a recommendation from Ukraine's security council
    • This will last 30 days, but is subject to approval by the Ukrainian parliament - expected later today
    • Ukraine has urged citizens living in Russia, estimated to be up to three million people, to leave immediately
    • The military has also called up a first wave of reservists - aged 18 to 60 - to join the regular armed forces


    link



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,106 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    That call for Ukrainians to leave Russia is kind of mind-blowing. I have so many questions about it:

    • Do they think they might be in danger in Russia?
    • What should they do with their belongings? Their property? Their jobs?
    • Where should they go? surely not Ukraine
    • If they do go to Ukraine where would they live?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,443 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yet so far, he has avoided setting foot in any NATO Country......doing so would make his whole plan unravel. He's not stupid, but conversely, NATO cannot step inside the Ukraine borders. Pity Ukraine had not joined NATO or the EU in the past.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,106 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Meanwhile Kremlin TV has been busy generating excuses for why Russia is entitled to the annexation of most of Ukraine:





  • Registered Users Posts: 25,740 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    They probably are in danger. Maybe not in any official way but I reckon they could by targeted by vigilante groups.

    I'de be pretty worried if I was a Russian in Ukraine or the Baltics right now too. I'de say we will see hooligan style racial attacks



  • Administrators Posts: 53,752 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I think the concern is Ukraine won't be able to provide any consular assistance to it's citizens in Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    If a formal declaration of war does break out, Ukrainians in Russia will probably be rounded up and placed into internment camps for national security, like the Americans did with those of Japanese descent during WW2. Russia could even use these camps as leverage; yield the south-eastern regions to Russia and 3 millions Ukrainian citizens will be released unharmed.

    Their jobs would be lost and their property would be utterly irrelevant, likely seized by the government.

    That's before you get to the lower-level stuff as mentioned above, of Ukrainians facing violence and abuse both at work and out on the street.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,443 ✭✭✭jmreire


    For someone who you think is laughing at Biden, he did not seem to be in a laughing mood with his own "followers" at the Duma meeting....actually, I did not see anyone laughing at that meeting.....quite the opposite, if fact.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hard to know. There could still be intelligence we don't know about.

    The Yanks have played a blinder so far putting information out for everyone to see but there's no reason to think they've shared everything. Even the way they're are leaving makes one think they're expecting it to be be full-on and not kept confined to the eastern parts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,204 ✭✭✭combat14


    im sure china is looking at this type of old ukraine/russian map with huge interest .. they all ready have mentioned their interest in getting "vladisvostok" back of course thats not their name for it in chinese!.


    On Chinese maps from the Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368), Vladivostok is called Yongmingcheng (永明城 [Yǒngmíngchéng], "city of eternal light").


    Every action has a resultant action in the future... especially with 100 million chinese on or crossing russians siberian border for work.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,443 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Quote "And Putin knows many young people living in France Germany and the uk hate their own counties, they hate what they stand for. PC and woke BS have made Europe inc Ireland weak. Putin knows our leaders are weak and our young men very soft and feminine."

    And you think that first, all of them are like that, and second, it will make them fall into Putins arms?? I doubt it very much. The so called "woke" brigade is not everyone.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,970 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I am unsure what he wants with all of this. He wants a buffer but all he has done is bring more foreign troops to the ready within striking range.


    US intelligence has seemingly gotten the better of Russian recently and his plans have generally been publicised before he does it. The white house is no longer eager to praise him for invading and is not fighting to stop sanctions. Europe is still reliant on Russian gas but is veering towards green energy. He himself is aging and many will see Russia as weak as soon as he is gone. He has a bit more land if that was the goal. Outside of the Belarus I fail to see where else he can expand and get away with it.



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