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Ireland's national debt 'one of the highest in the world' on a per capita basis

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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,081 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Don't cry for me, Argentina, someone else will pay all our debts.

    "Headed for disaster’: Argentinians protest against IMF debt deal" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/12/headed-for-disaster-argentinians-protest-against-imf-debt-deal



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Not exactly a quick solution and not all migration is beneficial



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Being indebted is a bad thing - the more debt you have, the more debt servicing costs you have, which eats into your expenditure.

    That's not actually true.

    Our debt servicing costs are about 65%-70% lower than they were a decade ago.

    The vast majority of our debt is fixed for the next 8-10 years.

    Also some of the borrowing for the pandemic was at negative interest rates, we were actually being paid to borrow.

    We have moved on from this myopic view of national debt, mass austerity in a vain attempt to balance the books was a bonkers idea 15 years ago and has now well and truly been shelved as a plausible path forward, by us at least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    You still have to service that debt. Taking more off ordinary folk to do this all the time is wrong especially when theres extraordinarily lot of waste



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    You know what would make our debt servicing costs even lower? Avoiding debt in the first place with prudent spending. Radical I know.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    So you think we should enter a campaign of austerity for how long, a decade do you?

    We shouldn't have borrowed for the pandemic and just obliterated the economy?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Record low interest rates post crash and negative during pandemic because of ECB bond buying - these are temporary and will not last. Now that inflation is rising rates will inevitably have to increase and when they do the debt burdens of some countries (including Ireland) will become increasingly expensive to deal with.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    So best to do what we have been doing, borrow at low or negative interest rates and fix them long term and then be prudent in the refinancing. No one is suggesting we borrow huge amounts at very high interest rates.

    But your assertion that higher debt automatically means higher servicing is simply false, as I just demonstrated to you.

    Yes there is costs in things but there is value.

    Pascal himself outlined this in the article.

    The Dáil this evening heard that the wage subsidy schemes during the pandemic cost the State over €10 billion.

    The Minister for Finance said that the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme and Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme cost €10.26 billion and protected the jobs of 690,000 people.

    The thinking and economics around debt has changed, borrowing is no longer a filthy word, but a perfectly valid mechanism to grow the welfare and prosperity of ones country if done correctly.

    Austerity doesn't work, that's why the thinking has changed, it needed to.

    If people think that is a route we need to follow, there must be very short memories out there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 50 ✭✭SungSam7


    I see a self destructive pattern here, as months go by, we have seen inflation, fuel prices increase, no houses for the working class to buy, no council houses, selling land and houses straight to faceless landlords, any objections to stop it denied. All this is being done in the fear SF get control in the next election and have such a mess that their time fixing it will be deemed a disaster, almost forcing the hand of the voters to go back to "the better days" and FG/FF will control for another century.


    Well considering it has been FF/FG for the past 100 years, you maybe somewhat right there but not about those who haven't had close to any control to prove otherwise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    The likes of Paul Murphy and Wanderer78 should be made spend some time in debt fuelled Argentina. A time spent digging through bins for food might soften their cough a bit.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,005 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Tbf, even at record low interest rates, we're still paying about 4bn a year in servicing our debt and that will rise. It'd be better if we were actually using that money. Borrowing for crisis events like the pandemic or for financing capital infrastructure is ok, borrowing to service our day to day running costs is not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    We are spending billions in capital investment, if it makes one feel better just pretend that is what the borrowing if for.

    The problem is not prudent borrowing, it's gross waste.

    In reality it will probably make the children's hospital look cheap.

    If we can someway stop the dangerously simple from making the same costly repeated mistakes we may have some sort of chance.

    Could take a while though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 985 ✭✭✭Fred Cryton


    Not as bad as it sounds. You have to look at the other side of the balance sheet. We also have some of the highest wealth and incomes in the world.

    Having said that, we should quickly get back to balanced budget. This is not sustainable, God help us when SF get in with their commie friends



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,081 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Our debt servicing costs currently stand at 4.6% of budget expenditure and will get far worse as interest rates climb. Fixed costs for past borrowings are not relevant to future borrowing costs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    If the economy grows faster than interest rates that figure declines.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    No, if net govt revenue grows faster than interest rates that figure declines.

    Also its dependent on when debts mature and need refinanced, so in reality it will only get bigger and bigger.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,425 ✭✭✭AlanG


    In real terms the debt is reducing by 5% a year. That's how it works - borrow at a fixed low term for a long period. Pump the economy. Inflation increases thus reducing real debt while nominal tax returns increase. A few years later try to get interest rates and inflation back down before you refinance most of it. The state practically never pays off debt. The NTMA will have refianced a huge amount of our debt over the past while.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    More income means more expenditure. That figure declines and is projected to. It's not my opinion.

    As for your second point, our domestic economy is projected to grow in the next 2 years by 10%. All growth figures are nearly always conservative. In 2030 our economy will be much bigger than it is now unless something more damaging than a once a generation global pandemic happens.

    Ireland’s expenditure on pandemic-related supports was approximately four times’ the EU average as a percentage of national income.

    However, as the economy continued to grow strongly over the past two years, debt as a percentage of GNI* rose by 12% compared to a euro area average of 15%.

    The national debt, measured either as a percentage of national income or on a per capita basis, peaked in 2021 and is projected to fall from this year onwards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    "It has peaked and is falling" does not equal "it is okay".

    None of what you have posted backs up the idea that our level of public debts are good or even fine. When rates rise and our debt servicing costs begin to rise with it I'm sure you'll be around for comment. Sure what is 10% of the budget on debt servicing anyways? Be grand



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Sure what is 10% of the budget on debt servicing anyways? Be grand

    Could you show be where you garnered that figure?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,081 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




    So with inflation running at less than 2% between 2012 and 2021, what's the pumping economy bit again, and can you show the calculations that suggest debt declining by 5% a year, because official government figures show it increasing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I could but since its based on possible interest rate hikes that havent been definitively signalled yet, its not a definitive prediction either.

    Ireland already has a big demographic shift ahead, and with a housing crisis limiting new population growth and FDI investment I'd be very sceptical of claims that our GNI will grow 10% in 2 years, or continue to grow at rates even half that. The minister for Finance himself recognises that Ireland indebtedness is not a good position, and that efforts need to be made to reduce not only debt to GNI* but also our debt per capita, 2nd highest in the EU and one of the highest in the world at that.

    But I suppose you know more than the minister and department of finance



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    But I suppose you know more than the minister and department of finance

    The figures are based on his departments forecast.

    So the 10% is fictional, you made up a figure and got upset by it. 😕

    Probably best to leave it there so.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The 10% is based on existing payments, interest rate rises and our poor growth prospects in future. A big demographic shift towards an older population in the next decade and an inevitable higher interest rate environment mean debt servicing costs will be much higher than present. How could they not really, currently costs are held artificially low because of ECB stepping in with pandemic support. Effective interest rates on sovereign debt will never be this low ever again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    The 10% is based on existing payments

    Net debt to GNI is forecast to drop from 2021-2025 by 17%.

    Again before you accuse me of knowing more than the Minister for Finance, the figures are from his department.

    But the department also shock test hypothetical scenarios.

    To stress-test the Department’s baseline, medium-term projections, the impact on debt dynamics of the following shocks is considered: 10

     3½ percentage point shock to GNI*;

     50 per cent decline in corporation tax receipts;

     100 bps increase in the effective rate for sovereign borrowing; and,

     combined shock to GNI* and a fall in corporation tax receipts.

    Such a shock would result in the general government balance worsening by just under 3 percentage points of GNI* (relative to baseline) each year between 2022 and 2025; the debtto-GNI* ratio would be more than 10 percentage points higher than the baseline by 2025. The debt-income ratio would likely remain on a downward trajectory, but decline at a very modest pace

    Even in that highly unlikely catastrophic scenario, Net debt to GNI drops by 7% and would continue to.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,224 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    I love national debt. We should try and get it to about 500bn. It will be mighty, think of all the overpriced contractors we could give juicy government contracts to if we get it to 500bn


    Then us silly normal people can pay about 20,000 every year to live in our own house, 5,000 a year for a bit of murky tap water, 2,000 tax for breathing air and about 3,000 for a tank of petrol. We'll have so much fun while we knuckle down like little subservient eejits and try to pay for all of it. The crowd we borrow from will be lying branded beach towels at resorts in Barbados for the rest of their days occasionally glancing at their tablet for news about how we're slaving away to pay all this debt for a good laugh.

    Maybe they can sink 100bn of borrowed money into the HSE to install some clusterfuck of an IT system based on Windows NT 4.0 while people slump to their deaths sitting on chairs because they couldn't get a trolley on time !



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    In general stats and percentages don't make a difference to peoples pockets which their hit in year on year

    Post edited by Mr. teddywinkles on


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,228 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Okay.

    No idea what that has to do with the content of my post.

    😕



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,581 ✭✭✭celtic_oz


    Q1: What percentage of debt to GDP is unsustainable, assume the debt is spread over a typical term spread, and inflation runs at 2%

    Q2: Assuming there is a number to Q1, is it wise to trend over time to that number.

    Q3: Assuming there will always be black swan events (eg covid) what percentage of the number in Q1 should be held in reserve



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    I have a question. If Ireland had not borrowed 200 billion euro since 2009, would house prices be where they are or would they be so low that they would be easily affordable? Also, if we had not borrowed that 200 billion, would a different set of people own houses today, in other words, would the people who are currently living in their childhood bedroom while saving for a mortgage be the ones to be the property owners and landlords if the government had not interfered? And if so, who would be the tenants? Would it be the people who are presently landlords?

    Who should pay the 200 billion that has been borrowed since 2009?



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