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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    Even though I knew it would happen it's still shocking to see that Russia has invaded The Ukraine. Surely the West can't leave The Ukraine isolated. What about the other eastern bloc countries; they must be very nervous especially after this morning invasion of the Ukraine



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22


    Don’t think it’s a question of if they fight but rather how long they can fight for. A female Ukrainian MP Lessia ? ( didn't catch her second name) made a valuable point on sky news this am - she asked the media to use the correct terminology and to be careful how they framed the situation - she was clear that this wasn’t a separatist engagement - that this was not a civil war situation but a full scale Russian invasion of a sovereign Nation - spoke very well and it came on the back of sky news reporting about Donbass region referring to separatists this , that and the other. The sky news presenter obviously didn’t mean anything by it but acknowledged that she had a valuable point.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    Taking for precedence previous such invasions last century, Hungary & Czechislavika, it seems the Russias are aiming for a complete change in the ruling establishment. While they are very likely to restrain their operations to within Ukraine, the European concept of using soft power to project onto the international stage looks to have been proved ineffectual as well as the rules based world order.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,106 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    This has been on the cards for weeks and last night it was inevitable but still seeing the scale of this, this morning is really shocking. I just feel sad and powerless to do anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The pitifully weak sanctions announced in the past few days told Putin he had already won. Last night, he threatened nuclear retaliation if anyone steps in to stop him, while the cowards in the west are threatening more strongly worded letters

    NATO and the EU need to recognise what is going on here and stop appeasing Putin



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  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭Compo82


    I'm not sure will the Ukrainian's fight back, the Russians seemed to come over the border fairly easily without any resistance. They might realise that its fruitless as they will be beaten by the Russians. Anyway it's a terrible situation. I think NATO and the West should do more to help the Ukrainians.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22


    Agree with Regime change - I think he has up ended the rules based world order concept - Europe will need to change it’s outlook re soft power - Putin has already indicated that any military intervention in Ukraine will meet with a response more intense than any seen before and he seems quite capable of implementing such a response. Interesting times ahead.


    Moldova and now Lithuania have declared states of emergency.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I think its safe to say we will be seeing European borders redrawn over the next few years as they all line up for Russian occupation



  • Registered Users Posts: 54,187 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Yes the West should of had troops in Ukraine instead of these useless sanctions that Putin doesn't give a **** about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,977 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    Have to say I'm surprised at putins move last night but he's not invaded beyond the 2 regions he's recognised as being independent (in his eyes). I suppose he's just firing a few warning salvo shots.

    I'd be surprised if he launches a full scale invasion, he may be unhinged but he's certainly not stupid.

    He'll essentially get what he really wants , a bugger buffer zone , Nato not admitting Ukraine into the alliance, Make European leaders and Biden, look like complete fools (actually he's already ticked that box) and of course yield a massive increase in Profits as gas prices go through the roof.

    Roll on a few months, all will calm down and European Leaders will be Queuing up to kiss his hand, Pipeline project will be back on track and he'll have two new states , to add to Crimera.

    Ukraine will be almost forgotten about.

    It's bewildering listening to all these Russian experts talking absolute nonsense, the dogs on the street know what Putins up to, it's not rocket science, ultimately its Ukraine that will suffer.

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,869 ✭✭✭amacca


    Putins main advantage as I see it is he calls the shots and those who would oppose do indeed dither and perhaps don't have the stomach or the singular purpose to do what is necessary to put him back in his box up to now.

    Not applying those sanctions in full back when Crimea was annexed only emboldened him. Best case scenario now he will be satisfied if he gets Ukraine even briefly and potentially may have no intention of holding it but instead use a pull back or ceasefire as a bargaining chip in a new round of "negotiations" where he is let hold on to donbas, luhansk. That will be a face saving win for him and will suit "the West" that I think Putin believes don't have the stomach for it.......yet.

    It's basically how a bully operates imo and they don't stop if no one stands up to them/is willing to meet them with the kind of messages they understand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22



    Calling on the general population to fight. There are no words to describe Putin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Putin wants regime change in Ukraine. The western response should be regime change in Russia

    Coordinated arrests of all Russian oligarchs with any connection to Putin who are resident outside Russia. Coordinated freezing of assets, shutting Russia off from swift, and even threatening to send in special forces to target every member of Russias ruling elites up to and including Putin himself.

    Putin needs to know that he cannot wage war at no personal cost to himself

    Putin has already threatened nuclear war. The west cannot let this threat go, because that only guarantees nuclear war the next time



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    It could also be a tactic to draw them in and take them on based on their own plans. A straight head to head against the Russian military juggernaut would be insane. Draw them into your own territory that you know and hopefully have prepared makes more sense. It will also foster a feeling of overconfidence which obviously would favour the defenders. Obviously I could be completely and utterly wrong and they are folding like a piece of paper but any interviews I have seen in recent times with members of the Ukrainian military has indicated a stoic stubbornness to defend their country.

    NATO could not put boots on the ground in the Ukraine it would be used by Putin to garner more support for this criminal act. NATO could have provided a lot more expertise and military assets (weapons). It still can specifically surface to air missiles, anti-tank weaponry and communications equipment. Tanks would be useless and would end up being scrap in no time. This is now a war of attrition and the more Russia moves into the Ukraine the more they have to make Russia hurt.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22


    I think NATO needs to step up - I know Ukraine is not in NATO but Putin ( particularly his not so veiled nuclear threat) is a threat to European safety and security.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22


    I think this could become a guerilla warfare type situation - I strongly feel that Ukrainians know exactly what lies ahead under a Russian backed regime change and have had enough of that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22



    Given that Liviv is so close to the Polish border ( and reports that the Russians have bombed / attacked Liviv ) what are the chances of Russia mistakenly hitting Poland ? And I do mean mistakenly - would NATO have to act then ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,402 ✭✭✭McGinniesta


    Right. Let me hold my hands up here and admit my monumental stupidity here.

    Can someone please explain to me what this war is about again?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,824 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Putin wants to return all Russian,from roughly the last 2 centuries, held land to Moscow's control.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Putin is an old-school Russian who served in the KGB. When he started his career, his eyes were on the prize of being in command of all of the USSR, or at least very high in the chain. When the soviet union collapsed, his dreams collapsed with it, and since then he has been conspiring to build a new soviet union on the basis of lands that he believes were "stolen" from Russia when the iron curtain fell. Georgia and Ukraine are two of these, but there are many others.

    He's functionally a Russian supremacist, absolute narcissist and psychopath. The power and wealth he has consolidated over the last 30 years means that he is in absolute control of Russia. There are rumours that he may be terminally ill, and that this is his all-in attempt to set a legacy before he dies.

    Regardless, there is no reasoning or negotiating with him on this. He is going to do this one way or another. We all watched over the last two weeks as politicians banged on about diplomatic solutions, while intelligence agencies and the dogs on the street said that Putin would ignore all that and invade anyway. And here we are.

    You will see many useful fools bang on about NATO encroachment and US aggression and claim that Russia had no choice, but ultimately these are all useful excuses that Putin has leaned on to carry out his intentions. There is only one reasonable response left from the rest of the world. You cannot negotiate with a megalomaniac.



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Russia has certainly undergone a large scale modernisation programme for its armed forces. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Certain parts of the modernisation programme are likely to have been successful - they have gone from a badly paid 1.5m plus mostly conscript army to a less than 1m professional and reasonably well paid (by Russian standards) army. So whereas before they suffered from low morale, they are perhaps more likely to want to fight now. They also have significant intelligence gathering and information warfare capacity, which they are using for maximum benefit.

    As against that, a lot of their equipment modernisation efforts have been lacking. They announced the T-14 Armata tank was one of the main pillars of Putin's 2014 plans. Initially they were going to buy thousands of them to replace their old soviet era armour fleet. So far, maybe a dozen have been built, mostly for testing, and none are in active service yet. Or the Su 57, their new 5th generation stealth fighter to rival the F35. It has been used as a fighter escort for Putin's personal plane and a few missions in Syria, but they had hoped that they would produce massive numbers of same, funded by foreign sales, but that didn't come to hand. So they have instead worked on retrofitting and upgrading their old soviet era equipment.

    Overall, they have shown themselves to be modern and capable in limited conflict situations. And while Russia is significantly more powerful than the Ukraine, this conflict could be much closer to a full scale peer to peer war.

    The Ukrainians are already reporting (so citation needed, so to speak) that they have shot down 6 Russian planes. If it's true, and that's a big, big if, then it would suggest that Ukraine are capable of putting up a stout defence which will be costly for the Russian army.

    So there is a big risk for Putin. After claiming for so long that the Russian army is now modern and capable, anything less than a complete walkover of Ukraine will undermine this narrative. If they get held up by the Ukrainians, that would be a major blow to their status.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,402 ✭✭✭McGinniesta


    So why was nothing done to prevent this?

    He's been president on and off for nearly twenty years and he also served as prime minister in the intervening. He didn't just wake up one morning and decide to become a russian supremacist and invade to biggest country in Europe.

    Surely this operation has been planned which would cause me to ask what have the western intelligence services been doing all this time? Didn't they see this coming?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,402 ✭✭✭McGinniesta


    How do you know that?

    And if that is true, what could have been done to help prevent this from happening?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Biden says "the prayers of the world" are with the people of Ukraine.

    One has to wonder how America is a superpower.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,740 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,824 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    He told me, well it was in a public speech recently. He has been banging on about it for years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Yes he has and it's all been ignored meanwhile Ukraine is been pounded from Russia , Belarus , Moldova and we're sitting back and the only tools we have is the UN and very limited sanctions



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Functionally the same reason why everyone stood by as Hitler and Mussolini rolled tanks into sovereign countries. Appeasement. Because nobody wants wars on their doorstep and will try everything to avoid one. Putin's motivations are relatively simple, but everyone else's motivations for not doing anything about him are more complex. Most countries' population prefer an "I'm alright Jack" approach and are happy to ignore a foreign conflict so long as it doesn't threaten them. Hence, politicians choose appeasement and turning a blind eye over other actions, unless their hand is forced.

    While Putin and his oligarchs could probably have been removed at any time in the last twenty years, it would have resulted in turmoil in Russia. This would have rippled across the world and affected economies. So politicians were happy to leave Putin where he is so long as their own domestic economies are unaffected. Better the devil you know.

    Russia has also spent the last twenty years running propaganda and interference games in the west, which causes countries to focus on domestic problems and leave Russia alone. Trump was the ultimate example of just how deep this interference had gone. His time in office and support of Putin's regime gave Russia more time to harden their forces and plan this invasion.

    Western intelligences agencies did see this coming. They've been warning about it for months, if not years now. Politicians just don't want to be seen to be provoking a war. Imagine if this time last year, Biden and Von Der Leyen gave a joint speech about the threat of Russia and the need for a unilateral military push against them? That would be a Russian win. People in the US & EU would wonder why they're so desperate to start a war against a seemingly peaceful nation. There'd be widespread condemnation about warmongering and corruption.

    Unfortunately it is sometimes necessary to let the aggressor make the first move.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,003 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Like you say they are a big fish in a small bowl. Russia should be able to defeat Ukraine but not without some cost. But as you say that doesn't mean Russia can go toe to toe with NATO.

    All NATO can to do is make it as expensive and as painful for Russia. But from the sidelines. That's what they've done by pouring military aid into Ukraine for weeks.



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