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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,007 ✭✭✭Shelga


    I wonder what the average Russian makes of all this? I know it’s a big country with a huge variety of groups and allegiances, but surely they don’t love being ruled by a despot.

    Isn’t there growing internal dissatisfaction with Putin? But then you just get poisoned with Novichok and chucked in prison, like Alexei Navalny. :(



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,004 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I was just thinking, if the first casualty of war is the truth, the second will almost certainly be the green agenda.

    Western Europe is now in a huge fight to secure fuel for power generation as its really inevitable now that the gas taps will be turned off from Russia during escalation of sanctions.

    Europe is going to starting burning everything it can, coal, oil, peat maybe, no doubt nuclear will ramp up but I imagine there isn't much spare capacity there just sitting idle.

    We hear about LPG tankers to come from North America and the Middle East, but let's be honest, they are going to have to be escorted by a naval armada just to get here, becuase clearly Putin would think nothing about putting a submarine launched anti-ship missile or torpedoes into the side of her. All that is eye wateringly expensive.

    But overall, I'd say these recent hard fought COP26 commitments just landed in the bin and that the climate change issue just got set back at least 20 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,869 ✭✭✭amacca


    The main reason I think its happening is Putin knows western style democracies developing and becoming prosperous on Russian border spells the end of any old style Soviet Union/powerful Russia what have you....+ there are some useful bits and bobs like Mariupol in there that won't just cripple Ukraine but would be very useful for mother Russia.


    It's not a justified action at all and as another poster put it a good while back it has some parallels with the UK not wanting a successful NI highlighting what a total balls brexit has been/will be....except they don't have the wiggle room to launch an invasion and deep down I suspect would rather get rid of NI quietly as soon as its no longer a useful needle.


    My biggest worry would does the speculation he's in bad health or not in a fully sane state of mind have any truth to it.......if so it's even more sickening that so many people will potentially die because of one man's insanity.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    ##Mod Note##

    Reminder - Please don't post memes or simply dump video clips etc.


    Thanks



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,739 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Can we please get a ban on point scoring from the American obsessed posters.



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    It's hard to say. Yes, there is political benefit to dragging it out, making it as long and painful as possible. But that would be mostly partisan strikes, small resistance cells of former Ukrainian armed forces supported by the West etc.

    In terms of their larger hardware, this might not survive sustained air strikes and requires a lot of support, so could not function if Ukrainian territory is fully or mostly occupied by Russia. So in terms of their airforce and heavy army equipment, they have to balance trying to keep it or risking it all. In a world where speed of attack is all important, they might consider one all out counter attack against Russian forces coming from Belarus to Kyiv. The idea would not be to beat the Russians, but to make it as painful as possible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22



    The Human consequences of Putin’s desire to bring the Ukraine back into the fold - a place they have no desire to be. Let’s hope sanctions are swift and harsh though I don’t think they will make any difference. Re Ukraine will to fight - sky news interviewing expat who has lived in Ukraine for 15 years and is still there - thinks Ukraine feeling runs deep and that they will fight to the end - with resistance groups springing up if/ when Russia takes over. Interesting take from someone on the ground time will tell if it’s a valid sentiment or not.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Attacking US merchant shipping would mean world war 3. It's a bit away from that yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,159 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Putin has lied broken agreements and has invaded another state. Diplomacy is now defunct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    How amazing to see Russia chair a meeting at UN today on the situation in Ukraine ,

    We're not been aggressive to the Ukrainian people but the junta in Kiev ..


    Sitting at the top table chairing the security council meeting about the invasion of Ukraine



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  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Maybe, just maybe Putin has made a domestic miscalculation. One can hope.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,235 ✭✭✭paul71


    Ireland are on the Security council at the moment, I cannot recall which Irish diplomat/politician who told Nikita Kruschov(?) to sit down and shut up?



  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The poor Ukrainian citizens seemed to have been in some form of denial over the last few months- I know a Ukrainian and she wasn’t convinced Russia was going to invade - I guess what else could they do but just carry on as “normal”.

    While the rhetoric from the people themselves and the government right now is admirably patriotic, Russia will bring the country to a grinding halt- disabling strategic targets it won’t be able to carry out the simplest of tasks-the resolve of the people will be broken and they may have to roll over and allow a puppet government into power. A guerrilla war won’t put food on the table and the democracy of the Ukraine has been shakey and of course still in its infancy.

    It’s such a sad day- i feels like we’re entering a new era of great uncertainty.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Considering how the Duma behaved the other day its gonna take a hell of a lot of public upheaval to turn things around and with the reported increased police presence in Moscow that's unlikely to happen. The only way is if the oligarchs and other higher ups start loosing faith and turn on him which is what the sanctions are trying to do but nobody really knows for certain if that will work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    The Russian point of view is one of intentional ignorance. Like I say NATO has been a useful bogeyman for Putin all this time, when a rational appraisal of the situation would call for discussions with NATO on the future of the relationship with Russia.

    But that would require acknowledging the sovereignty of several countries, which would run counter to the longer term plans. They only explanation for Russia feeling like NATO is a "threat" is that Putin wants to keep it that way. Since the fall of the USSR, NATO has only sought closer co-operation and engagement with Russia on a diplomatic level. Which Russia briefly engaged in, but in the last decade has decided to renege on.

    Since NATO has not been outwardly hostile towards Russia since 1990 and has in fact sought alliance with them, any objective analysis of the relationship would conclude that NATO presents no threat to Russia.

    Thus while a "Russian perspective" may exist, it is one based on ignorance and lies rather than reality.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,060 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    So how long before we stand up in as limited way as we can and send the Russian ambassador packing?



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭timmymagoo


    If Russia take all of Ukraine quickly it will only make Putin move on Baltic states even quicker

    if countries are falling like dominos to putin, the Russian people won’t be long falling in with the jingoism



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,444 ✭✭✭MFPM


    'We' didn't send the US ambassador packing when they invaded and occupied Iraq and Afganistan nor the Israeli ambassador when then they bombed Gaza with mass casualties in 2014...what makes this different?



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,739 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Why would we expect the Russians to all be against this war of for there to be massive resistance.

    Look at how yehaw gungho the Americans get when their governments go to war. Or how easy it was for the English to get all "no surrender" or get behind the "iron lady".

    It's easy to convince yourself the propaganda is true if you want it to be.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    For those with foreign satellite : Ukrania 24 HD is on Hotbird 13E 11219 H  29900 3/5 8PSK , just "talking heads" so far , I don't speak the lingo.

    NHK (Japan) reporting that UK and USA don't need to worry about getting fuel from Russia if there's sanctions. The US will probably make $'s on increased exports. China would probably buy lots of gas off Russia but at a discount on open market prices.

    RT (Russia) reporting that two civilian ships attacked in Sea of Azov, protecting minorities, spin spin spin.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Of course. Nationalism is one of the easiest things to get people onboard with, it's built into our brains.

    I guess my point is that when you appeal to the "middle ground" by asking to view a conflict from all perspectives and find a common ground, it's easy to forget that sometimes one perspective can be wrong and the other can be right. "See it from the Russian's perspective" is useful when it comes to deciding what the response should be. It doesn't mean that what Russia is feeling should be given equal weight to how Ukraine is feeling.

    Since it's very clear that the Russian perspective is badly skewed and adversarial, then it stands to reason that there's little value in diplomacy and sanctions are likely to only deepen the feeling of persecution.

    "There should be no surprise that we are where we are" is correct. Because it's been blindingly obvious for years now that Putin has been building towards this regardless of what NATO may or may not have been doing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,739 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    We did burn down the British embassy that one time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,791 ✭✭✭crushproof


    It amazes me how Irish, British, Spanish journalists can work for RT, like how could you sit there spouting such nonsense everyday. And it's no loonies like Galloway I'm talking about, but educated journalists.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,739 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I don't know about a wider invasion of Ukraine but I remember talking to Russians about Crimea and Russians my age who holidayed there as kids just without thinking thought it was Russia.

    Said when you go there everyone and everything felt Russian. So I can see people buying the protecting Russians thing.

    The Kosovars had no right to Kosovo other than the fact that the moved there after WW2 so Russians can twist the same logic for Crimea at least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Reports coming in of airstrikes in Kyiv.

    It will be hard now to know exactly what's happening. Ukraine will engage in propaganda of their own - they'd be stupid not to - but it is being reported by several foreign correspondents.

    After Russian aircraft were allegedly shot down near the Belarus border this morning, it seems likely that any air attacks on Kyiv are coming from that direction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,606 ✭✭✭rock22


    The Guardian have a thoughtful piece by Simon Jenkins.

    Who can prevail on Putin now war in Ukraine has started? Peace depends on it | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

    As he argues, the only clear way to peace from this is the implementation of the Minsk agreement. The alternative is a long destructive occupation of Ukraine by Russia , massive economic cost for Europe, ( but not US ) and , ultimately, militarisation of EU.

    This crisi though has shown up EU members as having no clear independent defence or foreign policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    That is the really worrying part of this. The existence of nuclear weapons mean that western countries will not engage militarily like 1939 in the face of German aggresion, so an emboldened Putin will be able to extend his influence.

    I feel so sorry for the Ukranian people. The ambassador on the radio this morning was in tears.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭lulublue22


    Reports of attacks from the separatist area of Moldova - Kremlin spokesperson has said Putin is willing to negotiate as Ukraine is not the only security concern. I feel time to engage diplomatically has passed - Putin needs a fairly clear line in the sand drawn for him.


    Looks like the tweet re kremlin spokesperson has been deleted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,739 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "Clear line in the sand drawn for him"

    So if you see diplomacy as dead are you suggesting invading Russia to take out Putin



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,003 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Russia isn't a democracy. Its a dictatorship in all but name. Putin's influence is far and wide. He's not going away any time soon.



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