Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

absolutely agree, the financialisation of our property markets has completely failed, in turn, this has caused a significant rise in prices, which has ultimately caused a rapid rise in private debt, effectively causing a hyperinflationary state of our markets, the only way to tackle this is with more state interventions, and ultimately public debt

...most of the money supply doesnt come from central banks, it comes from the financial sector itself in the form of credit, hence the higher amounts of private debt, this is whats called financialisation of economies! central banks have furthered this process by maintaining low rates, and injecting even more money into the process via qe, the only way out of this mess is actually even further money creation via central banks, but to make sure it actually goes into productive means, not inflating assets prices such as property, as these financialised activities have been doing! central banks such as the ecb and the fed are going no where, sorry to burst your libertarian bubble there

central banks maybe forced to maintain low rates due to all of this!

A scapegoat - the Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with inflation and lazily and ignorantly we might see efforts to blame it for further, persistent inflation.

I see crypto mentioned above; as stated before, it is a "get rich quick" type scheme in the vast majority of investor cases with little interest in it from an innovation perspective and definitely no legitimate position of it as a hedging asset. In fact, it behaves more in line with risky stock (i.e. lucratively valued big tech stock). Of relevance to property is that, similarly, the demand and liquidity in the property market I feel is similarly at a risk of dissipating. Demand will be there in some form until it isn't, slowly it declines and then suddenly there is no demand. Certainly, when it looks like all new developments are, as standard, unaffordable to rent for the average worker, with no actual "affordable" rentals being put on the market in new developments (even hostels/co-living are asking 1200/1300+ pm for a bed), it seems like we could have an oversupply of newly developed rentals pretty quickly, especially if the State carpet gets pulled out from under the rental market.

Hmm the idea behind crypto was to create an alternative means of paying for things that would be removed from the "normal" financial system. However, that same system absorbed crypto and turned it into another asset. Few people seem even to know what a bitcoin is, but it is valuable because enough people think it's valuable. Then again, fiat currency isn't all that different...

We're a very strange species, when all is said and done.

supply and demand is an oversimplification of the issue, theres no conclusive evidence to support that increasing supply will cause a decrease in prices, but it should stablise markets, slowing the rate of growth of prices, many factors are at playing, causing the rapid growth of prices, many of these factors are unpredictable and out of our control

the central banks themselves, as they can never run out of money, this is exactly what the fed and the ecb have been doing, i.e. buying up the bonds, the debts themselves just sit on the balance sheets

Of course it is going to be regulated because as it's grows the risk grows. just look at stable coins which can be used to provide collateral for a trade as simple as an FX transaction which removes the need for a trader to have a bank account with a correspondent bank which removes the need for KYC and a lot of the money laundering checks. This makes it possible for certain individuals to use USD where if they were doing it via the traditional banking system they wouldn't be able to do so.

Apparently Ukraine is now the reason for high inflation - remarkable how quickly the narrative around inflation can change. Totally predictable as well, but no less BS.

Meanwhile in Blackrock, elitist fat cats say no to 500 new homes on their doorstep. The irony as well of people with houses barely worth €500k (St. Vincent's Park residents) trying desperately to prop up their value by attempting to block more supply.

exactly people will only be focused on surviving their electricity, car, heating and other bills and not have spare money left to pay for extortionate over priced houses...

Yet this war does not solve our fundamental supply vs demand issue if anything it will exacerbate it. We now have the retrofit scheme which will take building workers away from new builds as well. If this war continues you can bet your bottom dollar we will have millions of refugees seeking asylum and Ireland will be good little boys within the EU and take more than there fair share. Now where will they live?? So our current political leanings and policies will mean that we will have less building Laborers concentrating on new builds and more bodies coming in to live. I predict if this war goes on for any longer than a couple of months you will easily see another 10% rise in house prices by the end of the year (if not more). The government will have to start thinking about radically reducing tax on oil and gas otherwise there will be war on the streets in Ireland and you can forget about the Ukraine.

ah i think the owners can shoulder some of the blame too 😁

Where some see problems others see opportunity. A country who's economy is dominated by agriculture and mining surely skills that can be put to use in construction

Do you remember who was rumored to have built new York and London and their origins

Well we have had a housing crisis now for 7 years + now why have these mythical workers your talking about appeared already. I mean there is serious money to be made in construction and other trades and yet if you talk to anyone looking for a tradesman they are out the door busy and hard to get and when you do get one they are very expensive.

An increase in supply will only lower prices if the demand stays the same or falls. The only permitted solution to the housing crisis is build, build and build. This won't reduce prices because at the same time, the demand continues to grow, and no discussion about limiting demand is even entertained, if you know what I mean. So yes, I agree with you.

For my part, there is something very, very off about a state that one hand pontificates about sustainability whilst simultaneously claims that it wants to build tens of thousands of "houses" every year. The only thing the state wants to sustain is the infinite growth gravy train.

Bought for €825k in November 2020. A 40% increase in just over a year. Yikes!

A north east facing is a South West back garden. Ya your front room may not have sunlight on a bright summer evening. However ideally you should be out in your back garden. In a NE fronted house you can watch GAA matches all year long in the sitting room.

Sorry I forgot the dubs are going into the doldrums.