Russia - threadbanned users in OP

unfortunately Putin does not seem to be a rational actor and he is surrounded by useful idiots

That would be a terrific propaganda win for Putin and massively increase his support at home. Where do people get these ideas.

I'm not expecting success from talks, but it's a better step than the current war. Ukraine negotiating from an increased position of strength now

From the Guardian:

"Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said “we will not give up a single inch of our territory” ahead of talks agreed between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations.

Russia initially said it did not want talks, then said it wanted talks with conditions. Now, after a series of military setbacks that some observers say may have shocked Russian president Vladimir Putin, the conditions have been dropped – which Kuleba said was “already a victory”."

Yes, it is time for Xi to whip out his dick and swing it. It will look great on his part. Russia needs China. They may not feel they need Europe anymore but they cannot live without both. But Xi will come across as the peacemaker, great Public Relations

(and lots of future blind eyes turned)

De-escalation has to be main political objective now, with deterrent formation and scenario planning taking place in the background. The logical outcome based on precedent a week ago would have been the full implementation of the Minsk Agreement and ruling out NATO membership. The long game would be to contain Putin until he can no longer be contained, because nuclear war is unthinkable for reasons long known.

That said, Putin is clearly becoming more and more deluded in his obsessions and attitudes, so perhaps goading him into ever more farcical decisions may hasten his demise or chasten his behaviour. His history of political assasinations, underpants poisoning, childish intimidation, is starting to accumulate into one large very ugly picture of someone who is morally and mentally degenerating. The old Putin, while cold and cunning, still wished to be accepted and liked among peers, i.e. normal social behaviour....

There is zero chance of Putin using nukes in Ukraine. Even if he wanted to, what would he hit? If the last few days have proved anything is that the Ukrainians are highly dispersed and mobile, air and ground bombardment has had little effect in clearing the way into major cities.

There’s an excellent media briefing by Schwarzkopf on the first Gulf War where he says to attack defended positions you need at least three times the number of boots on the ground, when they are dug in with fortifications you need at least 5 to 1. They managed it through carpet bombing a clear defensive and fortified line, creating a sea landing as a diversion then going around the main fortified line deep into Iraq itself. Putin has none of these options, it’s going to be street by street fighting against guys going from corner to corner with NLAWs and RPGs which pretty much neutralise the armour advantage.