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The jet stream and the Earth's rotation

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Neds, I can understand what most of the words mean but the thoughts are difficult to get into focus. I am not trying to condescend here, I spent quite a few long nights in my uni days attempting to wrap my mind around special relativity and one or two other far out theories, this feels about the same, so being a humble person, I have to consider that there could in fact be a point I am just not clever enough to grasp.

    Dare we speculate it is the other way round? My point is that sidereal time is no prison, RA and dec as opposed to celestial lat-long is no overturning, they are in both cases alternate paradigms. One does not replace the other. If you can follow both of them you can place yourself in a three-dimensional setting somewhat more easily than if you had only one and not the other.

    For example, the Moon is almost overhead at times this winter and will appear even higher for two more years to come. That can be understood partly by simple reference to celestial latitude (the Moon near full phase in January and after full phase in February passes its highest celestial latitude at this point in an 18.6 year cycle) but the easier way to visualize it is by reference to declination which is the angle between the equatorial plane (rather than the ecliptic plane) and the object in question. If the Moon went around our equator it would have much different orbital positions. It actually tries to follow the ecliptic instead. But it brings along a 5.1 deg inclination to that, and the nodes of said inclined orbit regress at a fairly steady rate so that within 18.6 years, the nodes have travelled back around the ecliptic one full time. This means every 18.6 years the winter full moons, which average a declination of 23.4 deg (our orbital tilt) add on the 5.1 deg to reach 28.5 deg. We are almost to that point now. In between (last time being 2014-15) these peaks, the addition is 23.4 - 5.1 = 18.3 so the winter full moons appear relatively lower. The opposite can be said about summer full moons which will appear particularly low in the next several summers, and appeared a bit higher up at transit at that min-dec point of 2014-15.

    This seems to have a weak signal for the atmosphere, variability increases with the higher declination range, and the jet stream gets more compressed near the declination minimum, hence a peak of storminess can be expected (as seen in 2013-14 for example). In North America it seems that the higher declination years lead to more frequent high-amplitude wave patterns and a tendency to blocking, whereas the lower declination years get quite active and zonal, first it is rather mild in the winter and warm in other seasons, then that flips to a colder northwest tendency around a year to three years after the minimum declination. Some of these signals are quasi-predictive in my experience. I have always had the belief that there are more signals than I can identify and if I could find all of them it would lead to a super-predictive model, except frustratingly it falls into a shifting geomagnetic field so it would not be as simple as to find the closest analogues and go from there, you also need to shift them from point A to B in the geomagnetic field. With the recent weakening and rapid westward motion of the NMP, the predictive nature of these findings has also been washed out to some extent. This may be my version of the AGW crowd's theories about polar vortex disruptions. I don't think that's such bad science as some might, rather it is bad politics because a person is bound to start thinking, "so, they think the current situation is making for more frequent cold outbreaks, and what we want is the old climate with more frequent cold outbreaks, so .. o .. o what's the actual problem here and why am I paying this carbon tax?"



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    I would not dignify a response to those who talk of celestial Lat/Long coordinates insofar as the 24 hour and Lat/Long systems are based around geographical coordinates where the relationship between timekeeping and geographical distances are fixed by the geometry and the rotation of the planet. In this case, 15 degrees of geographical separation equates to 1 hour time difference, which can be condensed to 4 minutes for each degree of longitude or expanded out to 24 hours for 360 degrees. The 15 degrees at the Equator equates to 1669.8 km or 1037.5 miles so adding rotation to this well known system creates the values for an equatorial rotation velocity of 1669.8 km/hr or 1037.5 mph consistent with an equatorial circumference of 40,075 km or 24,901 miles.


    The issue is that unlike the fractured surface crust where velocities decrease in a steady way from the Equator towards the polar latitudes, the atmosphere, oceans and molten fluid beneath the fractured crust rotate in zonal flows or bands known as differential rotation and consistent with all other rotating celestial objects with exposed viscous compositions. Jupiter often provides the best example of this-


    Yesterday's men, including some people in this forum, represent a period in human history when there was great destruction visited on Earth sciences, solar system research and timekeeping because of the rise of RA/Dec or the clockwork solar system where predictions are everything and interpretation was abandoned. You know these people as they are unable to get basic facts straight such as the cause behind temperatures rising and falling daily as the planet turns once each sunrise/noon/sunset cycle within a 24 hour day. These people imagine the planet turns less than 24 hours with an accumulating difference building up across a year.


    Modelling for interpretative purposes doesn't involve dire prediction warfare, it is for those who discover that modelling for comparative purposes is far more expansive, far more creative and far more productive than shoving through convictions that humanity can control weather/ temperatures by doing or not doing something.

    Post edited by Orion402 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    There has to be a medical name for this condition...



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Yesterday's men can stick with yesterday's comments and they are truly remarkable even if not surprising after one contributor made others look like idiots using dire predictions, something which I have no interest in (page 71 is where it all goes sideways)-


    The jet stream is a property of the Earth's rotation as is the polar vortex so it would be really, really nice if people could confirm the correct Equatorial rotation velocities of the surface and thereby work with the zonal flows and decreases which occur across latitudes.

    Post edited by Orion402 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    So does that mean we will get more snow?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I believe there is, if you google "cranks" in its scientific context and look for "not even wrong" as a subset, I think this is an example.

    The most common form of crank is a person like myself with a theory outside the mainstream, however, I think that I am more in the maverick category because I am not unwilling to debate or use accepted statistical methodology to defend my views. More generally, anyone who doubts the veracity of AGW is nowadays labelled a crank but that seems a bit self-serving to me, given that critics of AGW cover a wide spectrum of alternatives and now even include (in me) one critic who says they don't go far enough.

    The "not even wrong" form is when a person submits what they say is an alternative or restricting hypothesis (in this case restricting) and uses accepted facts to support their argument, but in the opinion of most other onlookers, they fail to prove their hypothesis with the facts presented. This has been my criticism of the OP in this case, for example, detailed diagrams of the rotational characteristics of various planets is somehow supposed to convince you and me that sidereal day is a bad concept. It would be no more helpful to our understanding if there was a copy of the periodic table or the finishing order at the 2019 Open or a list of good places to eat in White Plains, New York.

    I am not meaning to be condescending either since I am in the same boat; in my own case, I make every effort to play by the rules, the problem is not how I conduct myself, but the outcome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I would point out also that despite a very lofty tone in the declarations of the OP, there are often glaring and transparent errors in logic.

    One of those is that because I changed my mind about balance of natural variability and AGW in a postulated future scenario, this somehow reflects badly on either me or you. I cannot follow that logic. Before I changed my opinion, it might be true to say that MTC and GL had similar views, which might have been right or wrong. We now have perhaps different views, which still may be right or wrong. The chances of GL's views being wrong have not changed since he didn't change his stated opinion. The chances of my being wrong have either increased or decreased, or more unlikely, have remained the same. How that reflects badly on either of us is a logical step that I cannot detect. It is, interestingly, the way a lot of mainstream scientists also think, which makes me wonder how far this acorn fell from the tree, and from what tree it fell.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Modelling for the purpose of interpretation is so satisfying whereas modelling dire conclusions takes the fun out of research and re-directs it towards political/social imperatives that are unjust and simply exploiting wider society. Climate research is an enormous topic that doesn't neatly form into a single entity, although the relationship between geographical climate and weather is brilliant for short term weather modelling, it has no real influence on planetary climate in general or in detail.

    Of all the conclusions that I enjoy the most because it is so close to understanding, is how we appreciate our motion within a solar system structure using modelling to help with observations, interpretation and conclusions as opposed to making predictions. Because of satellite imaging, it is possible to partition the use of daily rotation and its influences on the surface like the day/night cycle from the orbital components of our planet and its effects on the surface.


    https://www.theplanetstoday.com/

    It is simply a matter of putting the faster motion of the Earth in context of the slower moving Jupiter at opposite sides of the stationary/central Sun. People will begin to enjoy how modelling makes appreciation of our surrounding enjoyable instead of that dull, sullen mess academics would have society buried in.

    Short term weather modelling in also enjoyable, however, when weather is quiet there is always modelling for interpretation to become engaged with and that is what this is all about-


    Galileo — 'You cannot teach a man anythingyou can only help him find it within himself.'



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Now he's definitely trolling. Totally ignoring all posts directed at him while he continues posting non-sensical filibustering.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Yesterday's men and their dire predictions are not worth dealing with when it is much easier to promote observations/modelling/ interpretations for enjoyable conclusions which refer the Earth's motions to planetary climate and planetary climate down into geographical climate and weather.


    No need to engage with people I do not need to whereas those who actually like short term weather modelling for specific events locally or worldwide would find an easy transition to planetary climate provided they maintain a disciplined use of their interpretations, observations and imagination.

    The attempt to create even more dire predictions than the normal proponents for climate change modelling sent these guys running from the forum and others to change their name least they be associated with the previous thread on climate modelling. I shrug as there is nothing I haven't seen before yet I can't be expected to deal with those who hold icons of the forum to be an authority when they are as flighty as can be and therefore fickle and unpredictable.

    I still think gauging a purported 1.5 degree rise against no definite baseline for planetary temperature, but rather pointing in the direction of the industrial/pre-industrial era juncture is an amazing swindle, after all, the body is considered to have a fever once a baseline temperature for the body is breached.


    People can do better, they really can.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭almostthere12


    I think he said all of the above yesterday as well!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    He has two threads on the go now; "The jet stream and Earth's rotation" and "The gulf stream and Earth's rotation". What will be next? The Sodastream?

    Absolute bonkers, but seems to be getting away with so why not open another thread?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,243 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    He's a despicable man. Bad enough that your job is to induce fear and despair in everyone but the sick pleasure he clearly gets from doing it, with that smarmy smug smile he puts on too. He will one day live to regret it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402



    I wouldn't be upset on account of RTE, it is more like those early morning infomercials selling wider society on more taxes along with the usual pictures of wildfires and so on.

    The real issue is the limits of modelling where short term weather events as a result of geographical climate such as Ireland's maritime climate is perfectly fine and instructs and entertains contributors to this forum in matters of predictions. Nobody has a problem with that and it should be welcomed.

    Planetary climate is an altogether different matter as it encompasses geographical climate, yet it is referenced to the motions of the planet in a Sun-centred system. Computer modelling can be directed towards explaining this area of research rather than attempting to make dire weather predictions look like dire climate predictions.

    The RTE broadcaster and some meteorologists are yesterday's people, they had their moment with their dire predictions based on computer simulations, but with a society coming out of the presence of the virus, researchers are needed to take a more expansive view of the Earth science with all its positive attributes.

    If the human body and its intricate inter-connecting systems were the Earth, the modellers would have the human body constantly dying and constantly lamenting its demise. Time to bring some fresh air into planetary climate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    N̴̨̟͖̭̐̄̂̒o̴͇̓̋̿̒r̶̜̻̖̬̤̄̒̎̓͆t̵͙̯̼̙̋͑͘͝h̵̘́̀͐̈́̚ ̴̡̮̄͐́͑p̷͓̬͔̒̈́̑̀̏o̸̜̱̝̍͊̄́̕l̵̡̮̖͌͂̈́͘e̶̞̺̞̝̒̚ ̸̛̹̓̂̈͐s̸̩̘̗͖̥̍̋͆t̴́͠ͅa̶̖̎͛ř̷̡̪̬̙͊̉ ̴̳̪̳͙̾̄̀ͅP̶͕̦͓͔͓͌͂̀ǒ̵̧̠͇̥l̶̬̙̗̤̽͐̾a̶̘͓̞͈̎͒̽ŕ̶̩̩̦̓i̴̘̖̕s̶̟̏̑,̴͔͇͚͓̿̑̈́̑ ̶̘̠̄͒̈̋̕Ḛ̴͓͎̌͜a̷̲͑̿͑̌r̵͈̟̓̄͊͜t̸̨̾h̶̫͐̓͗̈́'̸̨͍͍̻̆̾͛̏̂ṣ̸̛̆̎͋͠ ̴̲͈̓͜r̵̖̲̝̤̋ò̵̲̩̖͠t̷̲͙͍̝͉̓̆̓͝a̷̢̝̗̳̋̊͌̍̀ͅt̸̳͚̪̊̉ȩ̴͔̦̝̇̎̑̆s̶̞̞̪͂̿ͅ ̵̡̳̚ȏ̴̡̻̟͎͖̎̕ṉ̴͈̫̼̈́͊̐̚c̵̥̹̫̈ė̶̢͍̰̙̪͒͝ ̷̙̩̭̤̈̒́̈͋͜i̶̻̳̎̌n̷̘̑͝ ̷̧̤͇̳̥͛͆â̶̯̗̯̳̈́̈͒b̵͉͇͉̓̈́͗̚͝o̷̻̽͆ū̷̥͚̗̔̌̀͠ṫ̷̯͙̼̃̈ ̸͉̮͋2̷̣̥͘4̶̧͖̻̲́͆̿ ̸̬͕̱̎̐͘͜h̷̨̞̽̈́̚͜o̸͍̍ü̷̧̗͔̆̔r̴̤̪̦̥̊̓͑͗ŝ̵̛̼̻̲͆̕ ̵͚̓̈́͘͠ẅ̶̡̙̖͇̱́ḭ̶̘̏̈́̕ţ̸͖̦͍̙̎h̶̪̑ ̸̢̘̱̥̃̓͌͌̆͜t̷̨̟͍͗i̸̙̗̮͌m̷̯̘͚͖̓͑̉ȇ̵̢̪̠̇̊̓;̸̧̖̭́̇ ̴̺͕̮͕̇͋̀t̸̨̺̫̅͐̍̊̕ḩ̸̎̆u̵̲͍̭̮̽̀̄̉ŝ̴̱͛,̷̪̪͛͐ ̷̺̔a̵͈̋ ̸̧̗͉̥̉̿d̷̞͎̀͗̌͐̇a̷̯͚̤̜͆͗̕ÿ̵͚̻́͘ ̷̤͔̪̞̙͐̽̿i̶͓̪͂ṇ̷̯̥̟̪̚ ̸̢̮͚̫̤͊͗t̷̪͒̀̕h̵̛͕̰͜e̴̟̖͔̽͆ ̷̩͚̣̉͊̚͜͝o̴͇͖̮̝͐̃̓̄̈́͜ţ̵̩̎̊̄h̵̦̼̱̮̔̐͗̕e̸̢̨̢͔͖͗͒̆͊͘r̵̡̭̖͙͛͘͝ ̴̝̖͕̬̈́̃́͘p̷͉̥̥͔̌ŏ̷̧̪̲̠̗̓̋̕ḯ̵̳̖͙̯̣n̸̩̠͚̩̎̂͐̇t̵̨̓̇̎̃̋ ̵̜͇̭̘̃̿w̴̱͖̯̍͒͂h̷̛͍͉͈̅̀̈́ẻ̷̖ṟ̵̈́̆e̶̗̰̱̦̓̅̈̄̚ͅ ̷̡̫̫̤̒̑E̷̩̒å̵̛̗͍̺̙r̸̤͠͝t̶̺̥̽͠͝h̴͎̓̈́͒͝'̷̹͈̞͖̈́̑̋s̴̤͋̽̌̾ ̴̹̗̀̔̐̀ͅr̷̛̮̟̦̀̒̀͝ỏ̸̰̯͆͒̈t̸̞͙̟̏́́͆̓͜ą̴̻̠̒̄̏͂t̴͚̥̮̝͕͆̆͂ï̶̩̰̏͘o̸͈̠͔̺̾̏͜n̷̛̘̓̎̀̆ ̴̨̪̕͝i̸̥͋̃̍s̵̨̨̘̩̬̊͊ ̶̩̈͆̓͊s̵̢͕͍̟̗̊l̵̼̰̔̚o̵̧̝̬͌͂̈́w̵͓̗̑ị̸͎̺̯̥͗͛̐̿̊ň̶̹̜͈̭̉g̶̞̐̑̊͐̕ ̴̣̗̬̭̼̈́̀̾̈́͝t̵̹͐̿̆̎͠h̵̛̫̮̘͖̄̾̋͠e̷̗̝͕̰͛́̀͠ ̸̭̩̭̳̱͒N̸̖̲̅̈́̏̀̐ͅȏ̴̺͔̯͔͍̆̔͠r̵͙̦̳̦͑̎̃ț̷̏͆͌̅͠h̴̢̺͗̚ ̵̢̘͈̫͉̍̐̆̌P̵̞̺̪̚ô̴̟̫̮̮̆͑͑l̷̟̬̂̈͆̀e̷̛̹̰̗̍́̚,̷͉͔̿̿͑̇̚ ̸̰͆́ä̴̡̩̮̓̈́ͅl̶͎̼̃̋͝s̵͖̿͗o̵̝͓̩̗͆̀̇ ̵͙̹͕̔̇̉͝k̶̛̝̫͎͎n̵̦̣̝͈̊̽o̴̗̤̗͚̩͛̇͗̃w̷̩̅͝͠n̴̙͇͕͐ ̵̲̲͓̈́a̷̢̼̗͊̓͊͗̕s̸͍̻̻̈́̌ ̷̢͚͕̅̈ţ̶̹́͛̈́͗h̷̨̬̆̈́̈́̒e̶̦̋̿͘ ̴͙̥͊ở̴̲́̀͊t̴̛̰̙͐͑̇̋h̴̦͖͉̭͎̋̐͑̈́͑ẽ̷͍̭̀̄́͠ŕ̶͖̿ ̵͚̌̔̔p̶̭͚̻͝ǫ̸̳̖̭̙́s̷̯̏ṡ̷̯̩̀̈i̸͋͗͜b̷̰̐̆̆͗l̷̘͖̺͒̊́́ĕ̷̢͙̪̣̹͠ ̵̡͔͕́̓̿t̵̞̃̈́̌͒͘į̷̠̪̞̘̀̓̐̚m̸̡̙̺̦͂e̷͍͖̔̓̄͐͂͜ḳ̷̡̠̗̍e̸̩̠̥̰̾͑̐ȩ̶͇̒̃̀p̸̳͋i̷͔̮͈̇̽̎ṅ̸̺͖̩ģ̷̡̪̋̂̄ͅ ̴̛̙̗͆̂̀m̴̰̲̲̆͆̓̌͝é̸̠͗̎͋a̵̡͍̞͇̐̕s̵̯͖͇̣̐̍̒̕͜u̷̩̎̊͊͝r̶̥̜̬̺͛̍̂͊͘͜ẽ̸̘̺̞͉̈́̀s̷̬̺̫̈́̔͌.̸̞̜͎̭͋̈́͘ ̴̢̛̛̮̠́͌̋E̷̠͚͐̉a̵̭̳̳͙̪͗̈́̾̍͘r̶̼̊́t̶̟̜̮̊͑̚h̸̢̪̦͔̍ͅ'̶̼̘͋͠͠s̷̩̰̒͌͗͜͠ ̶̢̭̀̐̑̎͝s̷̹̀͌͊p̸̟̟̄̉̋ì̸̥̻̪̳́n̵̨̖͍͔̣͗̐̚n̶̙̬͚̰̠̂î̶͎͑͌͛̒n̵͈̔́̿̈́͒ģ̴̥̮̫͌̃ ̶͉̇̏̀s̴̮̘̈́l̵̼͍̽̓̎̀̚ò̸̝̯͓͝w̷͍̻̯̾̾̃i̵͚͈̲̙͒̓̓̽͠n̵͍̞̖̈̆̕͜g̵̨̳̞̣̜̾͛̾̈́ ̵̢͔̝͒t̷̪͕̋̚h̷̢͉̄̾̍ë̵̗̪̈́ ̵̹̳̋̂̈͗̓ţ̶̡̝͙̾̿́̚ỉ̷̯̃̏̚͝d̶̘͇́a̶͚̺̦̦̓̌l̷̗͑̈̒̚ ̴̬̹̌̔͋è̵͚̮̼̥̃͐̾f̴͕͕̞͎̿̅͜f̸̛͔̫͕̝͍̂͆̆͝é̴̦͉̓ͅc̴̡̺̝͂̚t̸̙͈̂̈́̓̚s̶̫̦̥̑̎̔͝ͅ ̵̡̻̮̘̂̀̾̔ẗ̵͇̙͎̗́̇̇̇̀h̴̝̒e̶͚̠̽̂̋ ̷̪̣̰̲̥̈́̾̀̎̽M̵̗̥̘̈́͋ỏ̷̯̔̃ó̷͙̐ṉ̶̘͇̋̑́̈́̏ ̸̩̲̱̣̿̈́͝h̷̡̥͎̦͖̉̀̿̑ą̸͍͉̼̣̇̈́͘s̸̙̝͐̀ͅ ̴̮̜̻̈́̽̈́̂s̸̢̛̞̼̼̣̊̚t̷̢͉̂̊̀ȧ̴͓r̴̪̜̯̎ ̷̧͚̬̫͂͗P̷̖̝̤̔o̴̢̻̘̭̣̅̏͆͊l̶̛͈͇̗̱͌͛͜ǎ̶̺̦̞͝r̸͇̃͊̄i̴̛̟̯̱̅̊ś̵͕̥̣̲̎̓̈͘,̸̢́ ̵̡̞̣̖̎̒́̚E̶̯̾ầ̴̢̠̮̚͘̕r̴̞̙͙̝̾̈́͛t̴̬͘͠h̸̼̪̭͆̓͌̍͐͜'̷̛͈͆̓̃̆ş̶̧͍̾̎̄͑ ̷̧̛̯̮͖̋̔͜N̸̼͛ͅo̵̠̼͇͙͇̔r̸̯̫̥̗̪͑̈̏̂̚t̶͖̀h̵͖̤͖̫̻͐ ̶̙̫͊̀̆͝P̶̘͑̄̌͗o̴̫̒͠l̷̡̖̗̠̞̓̆̐ȩ̶̘͔͕̓͋̈́͝ ̶̧̢̢̤̻̑̆̈̂͋i̸̥͖̤̜̲͂͊͋̎̂ś̵̩̠̝̗͛̋̏̉ ̶̖̺̼̳̊̐̉̕t̴̹̬͕̦̽͛h̵̘̙͍̤̒e̸̤̲͇͂̂͜ ̵̪̯̖͊̇́̄r̵̛͇͉̅͗̓̀o̴͍͒ẗ̸̨̥͎̭́ą̷̖̝͈͑̾̇ṫ̷͕̜̓̉͝e̸̯̞̔̔̐s̸͙̰̤͆̃̐ ̵̧͖̗͇͎̔̐e̷̦̗̪͌ͅa̵̡̘̜̍s̴̨̡̟͆t̸̡̢͐w̷̞̱̎̏͒͘͠ȁ̵͘͜ȓ̵̩̲̈́͌͘d̷̙̙̪̥̤́͂,̷̢͖̞͓̪̇̋͠ ̷̮̮̹̌̀ī̷̟̄́̏͘n̵̨̦̲̙̱͆̑́̔ ̸̪̹̻̓̄̍͝Ḁ̷̙͛̈̽̀͑n̷͍̺̓̌̿͠͝ẗ̵̙̯͎̩́̌̀̚a̷͚̱̋r̸͓̟̜͎̍͋c̶̈͜t̴̢͇̲̼͋̉i̵̧̟̊c̷͚̳̦̈́a̵͈̳̭͂̐̌.̸̢̝͚̻̊

    ̸̝̍̇Ė̵̪̹̜͙́͘a̵͖̰͔͍͎͗̌́̈́́r̸̤̠̙̥̈́̕t̷̖̑̉ḩ̸̙͐̀́́̊'̸͎͓̾̓ș̸͙̞̮̀͋̀͋ ̴̘̭̖͛̊̄̊ś̵̻̬p̶̺̒͜i̵̾̀̕̕͜ṉ̴̊͗̈́n̴̲̊̀̃̓i̸̞̥̣̋n̶̨̩̱͑̍g̵̹̹̭̏̃͑͑̽ ̴̭͑̆̀f̷̮̖͉̹̘̈́͛̾͛a̴̳͓̳̩͊̓̒̐̽s̵̲͎͚̰͆͘t̸̬̯͈̙́̽̿e̵̡̖̼̞͋̄̒r̶̟̜̤͓̂́̐,̵̺̩̪̓̍͂̽̊ ̸͇̥̝̐̆͗͜â̷̧̺͇̰̋̉f̵̢̛͎̩̠̼̐͘ṭ̵̡̭͓̰̉̈ē̶͕̦͋͠r̶̭̘̓͒̿͘ ̴̣͓͚̮̓c̴̡̊ơ̵̲̩̜n̶͈̹̍̈̕ͅs̶̜̩̬͑͌i̶̡̥͙̘͕͗̓̍̀s̶͔̼̾̀t̸̬̭̻̪͒͑ë̵̢̻̜́̽̅͜n̸̗͚̖̐̆t̶̢̧̘̰̊ļ̴̞͎͖̍͂̏̕y̵̛̟̬̝͂͆͛ ̸̢̙͑̈́š̸̰̄p̸̨͙̳̅i̶̧̛̟̩͈̰͗̈́̕n̶̬̱̗͉̫̑̓̈̚ ̷̢͙̜̟̖̀͛̕į̷͙̌̑̕s̸͙̒̌̍ ̸̤̗̆ś̶͓̼̖̂̑l̶͎̖̇͜ó̵̗̘͚͉̮̌͋w̶͈̹̳̖̤̐̇i̷̳͓̾n̶̨̧͈̻͠g̷̢͎̺̜̔́̅ ̵̧̟̎̀t̷̥͓̠̬̿r̷̘̎͛̈́͛͐ȩ̷͉̹̩͑͋n̶̰̊̈́́d̸̯̩̪̤͚͘;̴̱̄̓͑̀ ̵̫̠̪̈́͌͒͜t̵̜̙̲͉̀̎h̵͇̒̈́̋̈e̶̥͖̦̽͌͘͜ ̶͙̯̯̘̿̐̑o̸̘͊̐͠ŗ̴̬͚͉̩̄̅̈́̈́͠į̶̹̱̳̲̈́̽̐e̷͍̥͕̽̏n̶̜̪̟̏ṭ̷̼͓̖̄̀ä̴̱́t̵̻͓̽̾͛i̷̤͊̉̕o̸̦̤̽̕n̷̻̑̌ ̷̲͙͎͕̦͋̏̆ö̵͈̮̈r̶̮̓̍̑ ̵̖̭͎̗̳͆̇E̷͉̮̭̤͇̊a̴̩͔̣͍͙̍̂ŗ̴̭̃̃t̵̛͈̮̦͖͌h̵̗͚̣̺̤͆̾͌͑ ̸̮͎͛̈́̀͆͠ͅr̷̲̻̹͗̃̽͆̍o̴̦͆̔̀̀̈́ẗ̷̨̢̥̹͔a̸̹̍͋̈́́t̸̗̭̦̀i̴̠̻̞̔͊o̴̪͂̿n̴̫̔̓̈ ̸̦͐͋̓̿͠i̷͇͉̖̖͂̇n̵͖͝t̸̻̟̎͗̉e̵̗̤̙͖͛r̷̢̰̩̰̒̋͑̿̚ś̴̤̐̈́e̴̢̋ç̵̌̈́̀̀͊ṫ̸͖̬̾s̵̢͈̖̝̊͗̿͂ ̴͓͓̼̔̉̃ṭ̸͔̜̩̎̓̂͜ḧ̶̗͕e̸̢̝͙̰̲͒̂̊͝ ̶̧̑͊͠͠ṕ̸̗̮̗͔̿̿a̷̼̼͉̲͙͂̏̓͂s̴̝̹̒̈͑́t̸̨͚̰̠́̕.̵̧̝̜͖̌͝͝ ̸̝͎͈̯̂̐N



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Insulting people is beneath me and besides, it is counter-productive to the issues which many are well capable of dealing with when calmer heads prevail and interpretation becomes the focus.

    The meteorologists announce that this is the first day of meteorological Spring and this is exceptionally unhelpful when appreciating the Equinox and Solstice points which define the seasons and how the annual cycle divided by hemispheres and across latitudes is reliant on the same principles which govern the 24 hour day. There is no daily astronomical noon as opposed to meteorological noon and neither should this recent notion be applied to the annual cycle, what observers do know is that temperatures continue to rise after 12 noon and begin to fall after 3 PM or so. The same with the annual cycle where midsummer happens on the June Solstice on this island, it rises for a few months before beginning to fall around August.

    Ireland's climate is geographical with influences from the Atlantic ocean and the nearby continent and this is weather. Ireland's climate as a function of planetary climate is the rate of change in daylight/darkness conditions as the planet rotates and orbits the central Sun and that is defined by the relationship of the planet's inclination to the orbital plane.

    The doom merchants have had their day so now it is time to consider planetary climate in terms of dynamics. The recovery of the fact that one 24 hour day is also one complete rotation of the Earth is a good start and that there are a thousand rotations in a thousand 24 hour days whereas celestial sphere theorists disagree-

    " It is a fact not generally known that, owing to the difference between solar and sidereal time, the Earth rotates upon its axis once more often than there are days in the year" NASA /Harvard



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,549 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    What causes the northern hemisphere to tilt towards the sun in June and away in December?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It is "exceptionally unhelpful" that we have one great ocean taking up around half of one side of the globe, so this is no doubt the cause of the Earth's tilt. Or is that tilt real or just a figment of one's imagination?

    The Earth rotates once every 24 hours...bla bla bla...



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    The North pole, where daily rotation is absent, doesn't tilt as an action. It turns in a circle to the orbital plane where there is one sunrise on the March Equinox in a number of weeks, it crosses the light hemisphere of the Earth until it reaches a midway point on the June Solstice (midsummer) and continues to turn until it crosses into the dark hemisphere of the Earth on the September Solstices.

    Modelling to interpret this would be useful even if it is a 100% observational certainty as with Uranus and the time lapse where two surface rotations are visibly present-

    https://hubblesite.org/contents/news-releases/1999/news-1999-11.html

    The best I can do presently is use an analogy for interpretation which ultimately goes into defining planetary climate using inclination to the orbital plane, it may be crude but better analogies will surface in time.

    If your body was the Earth, your nose would roughly represent the position of the North pole relative to the orbital plane. If you walked around a central object with you nose constantly pointing in the same direction imitating the constant orientation to Polaris for example, you would soon discover that your body changes position in a rotational motion parallel to the floor (orbital plane) so this is how the Earth behaves as it makes an orbit of the Sun and minus any daily rotational influences. It is where there is a single day/night cycle at the North and South poles with a single sunrise on one Equinox, midsummer and one Solstice and one sunset on the opposite Equinox.

    Without considering the annual change in hemispherical seasons as a consequence of two surface rotations acting in combination, it will be impossible to consider planetary climate properly. The main interpretation and conclusion is that when daily rotation and all its effects (day/night cycle) are extracted, the entire surface of the Earth turns parallel to the orbital plane as a function of the Earth orbital motion and traits.


    Thanks for keeping things civil, it might eventually strike people that I am interested in planetary climate using modelling for interpretative purposes rather than those who use modelling for dire predictions. otherwise known as climate change modelling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    People don't make their conclusions then do the research, they do the research and reach their conclusions. At least that's my approach, some have criticized the orthodox global warming theory in that way, personally I don't share that criticism of it, I think their conclusions are honestly derived but I have taken issue with the portion that states that all current warming is AGW and in fact there is an extra component being negated by natural cooling trends. My alternate view was that the warming to 2020 was a blend of human-caused factors and natural variability and that if the latter increased without rolling back the human component, we would logically see a larger warming. The OP says I am not allowed to think or say this because it is dire. You know, if that were some general rule of science, we would not have science. Almost every conclusion of science is dire in some respect, for example, to take a current example, nuclear fission is not a very pleasant area of study either.

    The OP clings to his mistaken belief that he knows something most scientists do not know, taken at face value, he appears to think he is one of a very few people who knows that it stays dark all day in mid-winter above the arctic circle. This is ridiculous nonsense. Anyway, tired of being insulted by this idiot and making a firm pledge to stay out of his discussions. I only came into the recent one because it looked interesting, you can't tell from the boards layout now who might have started any given thread.

    So if I make the mistake of logging into yet another Orion special, I will just leave. I will note that I find it ironic to be labelled "yesterday's man" by somebody who thinks the high point of cosmology was reached with Copernicus, and that another more famous example of "yesterday's men" is apparently Isaac Newton. If he thinks he is insulting me by saying I am no better than Isaac Newton, then that is worth a laugh, don't you think? (Don't answer that, it's a rhetorical question).



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  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    On the December Solstice, the North Pole was at its maximum distance to the light hemisphere of the Earth, thereby creating the largest circumference where the Sun was out of sight and also known as the Arctic circle. Ever since, that circumference has been shrinking, slowly at first and then rapidly as it is at present, so we experience this at our latitudes as a rapid return of daylight lengths as we share in the same rotation. The reason the circumference is shrinking is because the North pole is approaching the light hemisphere of the Earth and will soon see the one and only sunrise this year on the March Equinox just as the South pole will see that event in September as it crosses through the light hemisphere and into the dark hemisphere of the Earth-


    If an image was taken from the same position presently, the orientation would be from southwest to northeast relative to the orbital plane whereas in September it is from northwest to southeast. It is here that modelling becomes useful for interpretation as some contributors talented with graphic modelling would be able to represent the changing orientation as it is seen from the orbital plane. It is difficult insofar as while the annual motion of the North/South poles is evident, daily rotation swamps that surface orbital seen at the North/South poles which extends to the entire surface of the Earth. About 50 seconds into the time lapse of Uranus (where the dark hemisphere of that planet remains out of view), it is possible to see that surface rotation of the entire planet as a means to apply the same feature to the Earth.


    The annual changes in orientation based on two surface rotations acting in combination influences weather as the changes are oceanic, atmospheric and land surface temperatures-


    Modelling short term weather conclusions is welcome as the changes across a week are minimal and allow contributors to gauge what weather will emerge, however, the next step isn't modelling conclusions for the seasons, but rather modelling observations to suit interpretation of our planet, its motions and why we have the climate we do in comparison to other planets. If people feel the need for dramatic conclusions, then modelling the Earth's climate using changes in inclination to the orbital plane will give them amazing changes in conditions, even if they are hypothetical in nature.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The only one drawing dramatic conclusions is you. Every one of us already knows all what you"ve said above (for the umpteenth time) so why do you keep repeating it as if its new knowledge? What's wrong with you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402



    Of course it is a dramatic conclusion, but nothing to do with dire predictions which belong to 'yesterday's men'.

    Modelling for the purpose of interpretation takes the manufactured hysteria out of the Earth science of climate and turns it back into the gorgeous topic it actually is while preserving short term weather modelling and predictions which occupy most of the contributors to this forum. When the weather out in the Atlantic is quiet and not much is happening with the geographical components of climate, contributors can turn their attention to planetary climate what gives us our specific climate that makes life possible across most latitudes.


    So, you or someone else would better spend your time improving on the analogy I presented yesterday rather than trying to bait me into reactions which I have no interest in. The dramatic conclusion here is that when daily rotation and all its effects are subtracted, the entire surface of the Earth still turns once each year to the orbital plane as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth. The trick is extending what happens at the North/South poles, where daily rotation is absent, to the entire surface of the planet. It will be a group venture rather than an individual trying to convince people they are wrong as contemporary imaging and especially from satellites is just too good to miss the opportunity of explaining observations using modelling for a better understanding of the planet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,549 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    The dramatic conclusion here is that when daily rotation and all its effects are subtracted, the entire surface of the Earth still turns once each year to the orbital plane as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth

    Has the earth turned on its axis, or just spun once in relation to the central sun, but all the time 'facing towards' the north star, as in your analogy above?



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Yes, the analogy, crude as it is, represents the single rotation of the planet over the course of a year. See what you can do with it even if it is tricky at the beginning and, if possible, move the issue forward using what talents you have.

    Although daily rotation swamps the orbital one visually apart from the North/South poles, the expanding and decreasing circles with the North/South poles at their centre tend to highlight the separate rotation as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth. In this respect, the constant orientation of the Earth to Polaris has more value for the orbital motion of the Earth to prevent observers from 'tilting' the planet.

    Copernicus originally got the motion of the North poles in an annual circle right but sacrificed it due to the prevalent Ptolemaic framework in his time-


    " The third is the motion in declination. For, the axis of the daily rotation is not parallel to the Grand Orb's axis, but is inclined [to it at an angle that intercepts] a portion of a circumference, in our time about 23 1/2°. Therefore, while the earth's centre always remains in the plane of the ecliptic, that is, in the circumference of a circle of the Grand Orb, the earth's poles rotate, both of them describing small circles about centres [lying on a line that moves] parallel to the Grand Orb's axis. " Copernicus



    When Copernicus talks about the Earth's centre remaining in the plane of the ecliptic, it extends to a separate Equator where the North/South poles are surface points that turn parallel to the Earth's orbital plane. The polar latitudes simply act as beacons for a separate rotation and therefore separate orbital North/South poles and an orbital Equator with reducing speeds from equator to poles just like daily rotation.

    The issue is hard enough to explain without opposition from those who are modelling for predictions only but I truly believe there are contributors here well able to work with fluid dynamics for interpretative purposes only. In a world where there is a lot of anxiety, this topic shouldn't draw reactions the way it does..

    Post edited by Orion402 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    An famous old quote from the world of meteorology:

    “Consider a rotating spherical envelope of a mixture of gases, occasionally murky and always somewhat viscous. Place it around an astronomical object nearly 8000 miles in diameter. Tilt the whole system back and forth with respect to its source of heat and light. Freeze it at the poles of its axis of rotation and intensely heat it in the middle. Cover most of the surface of the sphere with a liquid that continually feeds moisture into the atmosphere. Subject the whole to tidal forces induced by the sun and a captive satellite. Then try to predict the conditions of one small portion of that atmosphere for a period of one to several days in advance.”

    Author Unknown



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Sometimes a few additional clues provide those who have come to understand that a tilting Earth is not the answer to the seasons insofar as any change in orientation due to a perceived variation in tilt would register in the change in orientation to the background stars while that orientation remains constant throughout an orbital circuit. To save the appearances, an old solar system research term, the answer is to apply two surface rotations to the Earth with daily rotation clearly visible while the surface rotation due to the way the Earth orbits the Sun is really only discernible in isolation at the North/South poles.


    That would represent the orientation of the Earth on the December Solstice with the Sun to the left.

    The Earth's centre coincident with the orbital plane is denoted by the arrow Z passing from the Tropic of Capricorn through the centre of the Earth and passing on to the Tropic of Cancer. On the June Solstice, the arrow Z passes from the Tropic of Cancer through the centre of the Earth on on to the Tropic of Capricorn. The North/South poles turn parallel to this (orbital) Equator as these are the only locations on the surface with a net zero rotational velocity as a function of daily rotation.

    A more simplified diagram is possibly more productive in some ways without the temperature inputs-



    The North Pole turns in a circle around the broken line over the course of an orbit as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth. The diagram above represents the Earth on the December Solstice as the daily rotational Equator is below the Earth's orbital plane on the side furthest from solar radiation.


    Whether this helps or not I do know, but there are a lot of modifications needed to move away from the idea of a tilting Earth for seasonal weather or, in the other direction, to define planetary climate correctly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    I am sure that younger people who wish to move away from the idea of tilting hemispheres to explain the seasons and replace it with two separate rotations acting in combination will notice that their challenges are not just the technical details alone but aggressive opposition as well. I can offer them nothing but difficult challenges where every trick in the book is thrown at them with all the baiting, reactions and facile insults involved. The effort here is denying those engaged in dire predictions any meaningful ground to operate in and concentrate on what is in front of observers as experiences using all their interpretative faculties helped by genuine modelling.

    Short term weather modelling does not shade off into planetary climate so, using the daily and annual dynamical traits of the Earth, it is possible to work in two different directions from this foundation. What concerns contributors here are short term weather modelling and predictions yet even here the planet's rotation influences the jet stream and the gulf stream in looking towards the direction of geographical climate and ultimately weather.

    The motions of the Earth facing in the opposite research direction, but not unrelated to geographical climate is determining what climate the Earth has in contrast to other planets within the Sun-centred system. I recommend that explaining the day/night cycle and the seasons first as a function of geographical climate becomes a point of departure for researching planetary climate and the rate of change and extent in surface,ocean and atmospheric conditions across latitudes over the course of a year.

    Nobody is going to thank a person with the more expansive view and they should not expect it. The effort is done for the sheer adventure of it and the breaking up of an old order than no longer applies in the 21st century.



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