Off Topic Thread 5.0

We're going to be paying more for fuel regardless and yes of course I'm fine with paying if it means cutting the legs out from under a warmongering dictator. Strange question. I'd hope this will kick the EU into gear in ending reliance on Russia for literally anything.

As for Irish soldiers, if he attacks the EU then I don't think any EU country can stay out of it.

If they invaded Ireland of course I’d want others to support us militarily. And if someone attacked my daughter I’d want the living sh*t kicked out of them. That doesn’t mean the Gards should show up to their door with their batons drawn. My wants in an extreme case aren’t always a good reflection on what’s right or wrong. And when I’m so emotionally invested then my ability to make a balanced call on what third parties should do is severely compromised.

There are a lot of parallels being drawn between Nazi Germany and modern day Russia but there are a lot of very important differences too. Not least the level of destruction the push of a button can do today vs 80 years ago. The global economy is almost entirely unrecognisable vs 80 years ago too and so sanctions are a completely different option now to what they were, and far more effective.

At the end of the day, most of the rest of the world has moved on (at least to a point) from that incredibly destructive nationalism from 100 years ago. We need Russia to move on now too. The best way to do that is to show the Russian people that being the aggressor will hurt them without turning it into a fight. That’s part of why Biden was saying things like “we are not your enemy”. The more Russians that hear and believe that we don’t want to fight but are prepared to punish them if they do then the more they’ll question Putin. That may not help too much in the short term, but there’s a long term game to be played here too.

The Russian people are the key to this. While the Russian MSM is clearly biased and possibly controlled by the Kremlin, they can't stop younger people reading social media. The truth will begin to seep through to the Russian population.

Also, if, and admittedly it's a big if in the fog of war, but if the Ukrainians are to be believed then there will already be literally thousands of grieving mothers and wives back in Russia. I don't see how Putin can hide that from the Russian population.

The problem is that we still don't really know what Putin is trying to achieve, he can't occupy Ukraine, so does he want to create a buffer state between Russia and NATO, if Ukraine ends up like Cold War Germany with and East Ukraine and a West Ukraine will Putin be happy to see "West Ukraine" join the EU.

It's all very unpredictable.

Also to those saying the West should join the fight. I'm sorry but no. The ramifications are barely speakabke. Zelensky knew he was on his own from the outset. That's why he wanted to join NATO.

I think the issue being that a lot of the young people still buy into the anti west propaganda. Putin plays off that feeling. Even now, they’re not blaming the Ukrainians for this. They are blaming America and NATO. Fear plays strongly on any populations mind and Putin exploits that.

I think you’re right though, if there are a lot of Russian casualties. Public opinion will turn. I’m just not sure how much that will affect Putin, or if he truly cares.

I also agree that going to war with Russia is not a good idea. Western Troops would just solidify the conflict. The only real hope is sanctions that hit the people Putin really worries about, the Oligarchs.

I think you’re reading my posts wrong. I could have as easily put Switzerland nz France Germany etc. Not trying to offend or insinuate anything.

Kiev seems to be surrounded now, so it could be decision time for Zelensky. There are many many lives at stake, Russia might give him the option at these talks tomorrow of relocating to Lviv or to face terrible war. Not unlike Michael Collins and Lloyd George I suppose.

strange, wonder why?

^^^ jaypers its like the masons😑

Yeah, seems to be a bad case of overreach. I expected he would annex Donbas and the Russian speaking areas to create a buffer zone but he's gone all in and if he can't achieve his military aims very quickly all of his political leverage evaporates and the whole thing becomes a major liability for him and Russia. It looks to be going badly for Russia but it's worth remembering that when the US invaded Iraq the whole thing ground down for two days while they waited for fuel supplies from the rear. They will capture Kiev, etc and probably lots of people will die. The military part of it should not be very complicated in the short term but an occupation of Ukraine is likely to be a very expensive and unpopular clusterf*ck for Russia longer term.

But lost in all this by many people (in Europe and the USA) is that Ukraine joining NATO or the EU is an existential threat to Russia and has been since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which is why there was an understanding that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe in the 90s, which it did. Russia now has American troops on its border in the Baltics, for example. This was always going to blow up in one way or another so the idea that Putin is a madman or somehow exceptional in how he sees this situation is deeply misinformed. Any Russian leader would have the same view of Ukraine and see the same threat in its cozying up to Europe/US/NATO. None of this stuff fell off a Christmas tree, and the powers that be have been fully aware of these dynamics for decades.

There is no threat to Russia. NATO was never going to invade Russia. However a functioning democracy in Ukraine would be a threat to Putin himself. He’s just guaranteed that NATO will be reinforced and potentially expanded.

I’m not defending it, I’m trying to understand it. What’s the world in which this makes sense for Putin and the elites who support him in Russia? Morally it is obviously disgusting, and at the same time it’s true that what’s happening in Ukraine has a context that goes back further than tanks rolling last week. I’m opposed to Russia invading Ukraine the same way I’m opposed to the Iraq invasion and what the Saudis are doing in Yemen, the Palestine horror, etc. It’s obscene, but I’m not that interested in trying to understand it as some other category of operations. It’s powerful states acting on weaker ones through violence for particular reasons and for particular objectives. What are the objectives and reasons? There’s more to it than, ‘Putin’s a mad bastard and I’m tweeting 🇺🇦 ’.

@swiwi_ As for NATO not planning to invade Russia so why worry about it.. that’s not how Russia has ever seen it, as they’ve been explicit about since ‘89. No more than America could tolerate missiles in Cuba in the 60s, or Russian troops on the Mexican border. No one is invading anyone until they do.

Maybe the wrong forum tho’. I’m not planning to make any more work for mods.