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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    It would not be beyond precident for a war of Ukranian liberation to be fought from foreign soil - even NATO soil. Could Russia view this as NATO war with Russia. Yes, if they choose to. Will they Choose to? I dont know

    Did the US view Chinese and Russian support for the VietCong, as said states actively entering the VietNam War? No

    Did Russia view Afghanistan being armed by the CIA as War? No

    A proxy war is likely (and it is a horrid prospect) - but Russia can decide how they react to a border conflict, or Ukrainian Patriots fighting from Foreign soil - and if they want to escalate they would need to be 100% SURE they are willing to accept the consequences

    ALSO: Volodymyr Zelenskyy just finished speaking to the EU Parliament, and i admit fully, i am teared up - . GLORY TO UKRAINE - ETERNAL GLORY

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 675 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    So just think Ukraine really need to send small groups into Russia to cause damage at key points like bridges and railroads. Again they probably are be we wouldn't hear about it I guess



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Its one thing being armed from foreign soil, but to conduct raids over the border if the border itself is shut by Russia is a different story and absolutely would be grounds for escalation with Poland.

    Not only would that bolster support for Putin in Russia, they would likely retaliate by flattening Ukrainian cities. Grozny 2.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Your Statement: "Its one thing being armed from foreign soil, but to conduct raids over the border if the border itself is shut by Russia is a different story and absolutely would be grounds for escalation with Poland."

    It would be absolutely no difference to what happened during the Vietnam War, when North Vietnamese and VietCong forces, having been armed by Beijing, and aided by Moscow, followed the Ho Chi Minh trail through, Laos, and Cambodia, to attack ARVN and US forces in the south.

    if what you are saying is that Russian tanks roll up to the borders of Ukraine proper, and hold them militarily - that would be a MASSIVE military undertaking - it would be near on impossible to protect the entire border. IN THEORY possible, but in my opinion - a near impossibility

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,059 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Presumably that's the end of any so called peace talks. How can you possibly frame that whilst simultaneously apparently increasing attacks on Ukrainian cities and then joining up with Russian forces. They really are a despicable bunch of liars.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Of course they wont patrol every inch of the border, but checkpoints on some of the major roads between Ukraine and Poland would likely be enough to stop most troop and armor movements across the border.

    The other things is airfields - if Russia has control of, or bombs most of Ukrainian airfields, then Ukrainian planes will only be able to conduct raids using Poland as a base. I cannot see them tolerating that, can you?

    Again a very different situation to Vietnam - also Cambodia and Laos were bombed massively by the US, even if they were not formally at war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The only hope will be a terrorism campaign from inside Ukraine if the country falls



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    It's a page or two back but one interesting tidbit about the planes being apparently sent to Ukraine is that they can (apparently) take off and land on rougher surfaces ... so in theory, I guess, the Ukrainian air force could be using ordinary fields or other "non-standard" surfacing from which to launch attacks. No need to involve a foreign nation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If thats true then its a good development for them - though I thought it turned out most of the planes to be delivered were older ex-USSR MiGs and Sukhoi from warsaw pact countries.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Via fuel trucks I presume, once their sorties were done; just relaying the info that was shared earlier - as I had also presumed the planes being donated required billiard table concrete or suchlike to take off and land, thus being a problem what with the Russians already taking care of that.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,529 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Posts removed and users infracted. I can only give so many warnings. Be civil or bans may follow.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Again there are some valid points here but your main thesis (correct me if i am wrong), that Western Military aide will cease at some point - I cannot see that happening - this has escalated to the point where politically, it would be inconceivable for the west to pack up and go home.


    Now in terms of Russia choosing to view external western military aide as 'West declaring war' - TBH anything is possible but i doubt he will. This will devolve into a proxy war. Free Ukraine Supported by the west will end up in a protracted conflict with Russia, Belarus, and possibly 'DPR-UKRAINE-Puppet' -

    Actually your point on the Aircraft is well made - i had questions on that myself but seemingly the aircraft involved are capable of 'rough terrain' take off and landing - so what the Ukraine Needs is not airfields - Its 'relatively flat land' (which if i remember my geography, will not be a problem) - confirmed in my video link from ED NASH YT analysis of Eurofighter Questions - i posted yesterday, if permitted i will post again but you should be able to find the link

    As to using NATO airstrips - again you have to count on subterfuge and meandering statements. Perhaps Ukrainian fighters will be 'in distress' and 'need to land' - and the only open airstrip will be in the west. etc etc - My point is Russia is distorting the reality of the situation as par for the course - The west will too, in time. Russia will have a decision to make as to whether they choose to escalate given these realities - But even a threat to escalate, would be an escalation.

    Well i feel sorry for the average Belarusian - they protested the last 'election' - and unfortunately nothing happened beyond a brief flurry of finger pointing.

    As for the regime. IMHO it has ceased to be a state now, it is a Satellite, nothing Minsk says, or does, can be viewed as anything other than Putins orders

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,895 ✭✭✭✭josip


    That's a substantial number of aircraft, but the Mig-29s will be outclassed by the Russian Su-27s.

    Does Ukraine still have enough experienced pilots to operate them and without any radar support, how effective can they be?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    We have been told they do yes - and there is the possibility of volunteer pilots etc -

    i saw a post elsewhere that parts, tools, and components for said aircraft, have also been supplied - but i am unable to confirm this on ANY NEWS CHANNEL! - that said, i would not be surprised - at a basic level there is no point in Poland (or the other states sending aircraft), in maintaining a supply of 'spare mig components' if they no longer possess any Migs!

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I don't know modern aircraft: how wide is the gulf between these planes? Nominal such that superior tactics and good pilots could make it an even fight, or is the difference so great it's like biplanes versus jets?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    IN relation to your questions on the capability of these aircraft, ALL have been upgraded to NATO STANDARDS - which is a definite plus.

    In terms of effectiveness, i honestly can only go on what i heard from the various reports, and Ed Nash's analysis video

    I view Nash as a decent source on all things aircraft related - i should also point out that his analysis from 24 hours ago, was spot on in terms of models, numbers, etc - so this is a useful video if you fancy watching - also he explains the rough take off // landing i mentioned earlier

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,535 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    They're contemporary, they came from the same project but when they couldn't make a single fighter that would do it all for the price they split it. The discount Mig-29 and the premium Su-27



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The big problem would be air defences or a lack thereof. Supposedly most of Ukrainian air defences were knocked out, not sure if that is actually the case, and plenty of MANPADs would have been moved into the west over the border. However if Russians have vehicular air defenses in place it will make life very difficult for Ukrainian air force.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,328 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Will Nato augment these aircraft with AWACS type support? It's likely that the Ukrainians are receiving intel from the West, so it wouldn't be much of a step to doing that.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,895 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Until Poland grounded their Mig-29s in 2021, I believe they had been producing most/all of their own spares.

    The problem with the Mig-29s is their limited onboard radar and the Russian SU-27s can engage them beyond their range.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,661 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Bi-planes versus jets is a problem experienced by the EE Lightening aircraft trying to watch the Russian bombers flying towards or into UK airspace. The Russian planes were subsonic, and the Lightening had difficulty flying subsonic to match them. The Lightening was an incredibly fast plane that could climb vertically at supersonic speed - it was basically a huge jet engine with wings.

    Slow planes are hard for superfast planes to fight. If the slow planes are well armed with good guided missiles, they can put up a good fight. I would imagine they would be used for air to ground targeting.

    [By the way, I have no knowledge or experience to justify my views.]



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    In theory they could - Nash speculates that the donating countries will probably offload their supplies of Russian ordinance too - so ammunition should not be a problem. The issue will be numbers - Although it remains possible that the UAF will launch small scale air attacks on outlying Russian Units. Of course the russians will respond - its a terrible sequence of events


    We could speculate that the UAF and Ukrainian forces will simply try to inflict as much damage as they can, to slow Russian advances and retard their mobility - birdges, roads, rail lines (which may be compromised in several areas) - we really dont know - we can just hope at this stage -

    I mentioned earlier the obscene spectacle of Lavrov issuing a statement about the situation - which was garbage in my view - anyway, found a link - its rather detestable but have a look if you wish


    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    I have searched online but cant find anywhere in South or west Dublin where i could bring aid like blankets etc for Ukraine .Has anyone any idea where I could do this .



    Edit ./ I just found this info


    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ukraine-russia-crisis-dublin-locations-23235785



  • Registered Users Posts: 675 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    What like what else could they do. Really like I said infrastructure not people. Can't see how it could make think worse for them. I think maybe Russia was wait for such action. And that's why they did fully commit at first.



  • Registered Users Posts: 675 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    I would think if the Ukrainian people just hold up in cities then they have lost. Without support that is. I guess as more of the equipment sent from Western countries starts gets to the fronts in numbers it would help.

    Starting to think the Russia sent in less equipped troops to try and tease out as many Ukrainian troops as possible, or else they do just have **** equipment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Russian News agency TASS has confirmed Fighters story from Russia - they however include this:

    "If necessary, they can be stationed on Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions," 

    Includes same statement - but i cannot tell whether they got this quote from TASS - I think i will wait for the BBC or SKY (or CNN) to confirm this story, it could be an exaggeration by TASS to whip up anti western feeling

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    NATO press conference earlier today:

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_192582.htm

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: Well NATO stands in solidarity with Ukraine. NATO Allies have imposed severe costs on Russia for its totally unjustified and reckless invasion of Ukraine and we will hold both Russia and Belarus accountable for what they are doing by enabling the Russian invasion of Ukraine. NATO Allies have imposed costs on Russia by implementing severe sanctions. We actually addressed those sanctions in the phone call with President Biden and President Duda, and other NATO leaders and the EU. NATO Allies provide different types of military support: material, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other types of military equipment for Ukraine, humanitarian aid and also financial support. But NATO is not to be part of the conflict. NATO is not going to send the troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace. Then, I think it is for President Duda to answer the question about Potential Polish planes being made available For the Ukrainian Air Force


    President of Poland Andrzej Duda: Gentlemen, as Secretary General has now said, we are not sending any jets to Ukraine because that would open a military interference in the Ukrainian conflict. We are not joining that conflict. NATO is not a party to that conflict. However as I said, we are supporting Ukrainians with humanity aid. However, we are not going to send any jets to the Ukrainian airspace.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Well given the promise of Jets, and the announcements which i cited - i read the following

    NATO JETS - No

    NATO Air Strips - Ambiguous but i will say NO for now

    UAF JETS which originate from NATO Members - Yes (given prior statements repeatedly covered and cited - if you want to be pedantic - ambiguous but this would involve a change of direction from the statements made yesterday, cited by myself and others on this forum - it would be a reversal )

    "However, we are not going to send any jets to the Ukrainian airspace." - i genuinely take this to be the calls for a No Fly Zone - which was never really an option i am sure you would agree

    Unless there is a clear unambiguous statement, Jets are being provided to the UAF - these jets are therefore NOT NATO jets, NOT flown by Nato Pilots; they could therefore be said to be 'Aircraft of the Ukrainian Airforce


    Its not clear at all really - but my take is that an airplane, formerly NATO, handed to a UAF pilot, and flying into the conflict is No Longer a NATO aircraft - so - that is my take, but its a strange statement i will grant you

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,484 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    I don’t think they said that the Ukrainians couldn’t come and collect aircraft though. They just said that NATO members wouldn’t transport them across the border.



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